I follow Kathy Lien on Twitter, watched a CNBC clip she sent out in which she mentioned currency beta. When I traded stocks I had a spreadsheet to track the beta of stocks in the basket I traded, I never bothered with FX as it's just a different beast. So while leaning to thinking she's into buzzword territory, I always try to keep an open mind. Been searching, found this very interesting piece. We trade volatility and by default if you have the various metrics we track, you already have relative volatility in hand, which is about as good as it gets in FX without a 'market' to measure against. NLs of the various pairs aside, I also run NLs on the FXCM Currency Indices that Sierra Chart provides. It's another filter, if I want to short a currency, I prefer to short it against the strongest currency, so I look there for guidance. They only cover the majors, I trade the exotics so I created a composite NL for those currencies not covered. I'll dig deeper into this FX beta thing, but I'm not convinced it will tell me any more than I get from the various metrics I already have. https://www.ipe.com/editors-choice-...harder-than-you-might-think/37131.fullarticle
Thought provoking piece on extrapolating large players positions from COT data... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hedgefunds-oil-kemp-idUSKBN1AC3CR
well USD/Yen failed at the monthly A for me last friday and is currently a confirmed weekly Aup since last night during the asian session. My number lines were still too negative so I didn't get any of that but what a bounce there along with the Nikkei.
Not sure if I'm scoring my NL correctly...but if you wait for the 30 NL to confirm...you're usually very late to the party.
This is more referring to equities, but my approach I've settled on is using my ACD stuff to find what I want to trade, then I try to look at the product from the point of view of the various popular strategies big funds use(or at least I think they do based on my personal research); mean reversion, trend following, long short equity on different time frames. I try to find stuff that ACD tells me to trade, that is also likely to attract interest from funds using these approaches, and take my trade when I think there is a nice intersection of these factors.
I'm still struggling with the role of the 30 NL in the grand scheme of things. I took Mav's advice and using it as a filter to screen out the ones that are moving or have "good price action." I then take that group and apply my other stuff from there.
I struggled with it for a long time too. For me it works best applied to large numbers of products, grouped in various ways. For me to even look at something now it has to get my attention via the 30 day view. I don't think a 30 day nl of a single product in isolation is very useful.
I've struggled with the utility of the 30 day too, that's why I spent so much time working on the 5 day NL derivatives. They give me my best shot getting in early, long before the 30 day confirms. That said, the 30 day is the best signifier of a trend, with one exception. If you remember the call Mav made on X, it was basing. Nothing on the chart signalled upside, but we got a 30 day NL confirmation, then it broke out. Sometimes it's just best to fade a confirmation, but I don't bother with that, I just look for levels for a pullback and set alerts for them. Get an alert and I look at action on the hourly chart to pick an entry. Needs patience, not my strength, but it pays. The 5D NL derivatives signal the need for immediate action, mostly. If it's AUD, NZD, JPY then sometimes a pullback is needed because they often move early in the Asian session.