X axis is GC range during US trading hours, Y axis is 820 5 minute opening range. I don't really see anything of interest as far as predicting session volatility.
What???? Wha’d ya say?? Are you talking to me?? You wanna know what “Price Action” means ….. from an ACDish perspective? Okay! I’ll just do a quick “Price Action” search through “The book that shall not be mentioned” and ….. ahhhhh, 4 pages worth! Here’s the first two pages: 2.17.10 ACD is all about volatility, time and price action. 9.27.10 The ACD system is all about price action.ACD is volatility based, not price based. It's all about volatility and price action. 11.25.10 ACD to me works best for price action traders and tape readers because ACD is all about price action. 3.14.11 So the idea is to become a good price action trader and ACD allows you to see price action better than any other method I have seen. The idea is to identify price action that is NOT obvious to everyone else. 5.8.11 I tell them it's (ACD) a price action based system and it's highly discretionary. 6.2.11 The number line hinges on the importance of recording significant price action in the market through the A levels. 7.29.11 I'm telling, this is where ACD really shines. You notice things in the price action early that other people don't see. The monthly A up was at 124'13!!!!!! And when it confirmed the whole world was talking about shorting them. 8.2.11 There really are no magic levels. As I've said before, ACD is a price action based system. Our levels could be off by 5 or 10 ticks but I'm pretty certain we would be in agreement about the relative strength or weakness of any given product. 8.24.11 I know the phrase price action can be very ambiguous to many on here. So let me try to define what I mean by the word price action and point out that the ACD methodology IS a price action based system. It is NOT a rules based system. A rules based system usually follows a logic of "if/then instructions. If this happens, then do that. It's very static and rigid and quite frankly, rules based systems work much better in predictable environments, certainly not the financial markets. Price action is about making decisions based on the interpretation of several variables. It usually leans on the trader's past history, experience, knowledge and ability to recognize nuance and subtlety. The purpose of using price action over a rules based system is to spot and locate opportunities in the market that are NOT obvious to everyone else. Static systems are the opposite. Because static systems regurgitate the same variables over and over again in the same rigid manner, they can easily be spotted and acted upon by anyone that pays attention to it. And believe me they will if those static patterns happen to be working. 9.4.11 What makes price action effective is that it's simple. Indicators kill price action because it destroys the purity of it. If you are a not a price action trader, the comments about volatility are not particularly applicable. Let me put this another way. Volatility produces noise. The more noise, the harder to read price action. 9.7.11 Remember, ACD is simply a lens in which to understand price action. You and I might wear different shades of sunglasses but if we walk outside and it's raining, we should both agree no? 9.26.11 It's also a price action based system so ACD is helping me discern between whether we are range bound or trending. 11.6.11 In order to read price action you need to know what the news is, what other risk assets are doing and what the current sentiment is in the market. All those things are very hard to quantify. 11.26.11 Anyway, the point I'm making here...is that the dollar index is up sharply today right? Risk assets are getting sold today right? Yet the dollar is getting killed against the TRY. That my friend is called price action! 11.31.11 I think ACD is a combination of trend following and price action so it's more of a hybrid. 11.21.11 Never look for a narrative to get long or short. Look at price action. One of the things you'll see me do on here a lot is point out strong stocks on down days and weak stocks on up days. This is the most obvious way to identify price action. 11.27.11 I also take price action into account. For example, if the ES is confirming an A up but the NASDAQ and Russell are not, then that is a problem for me. Or if Oil is not confirming. Or if the leading stocks are not confirming. I take everything into account. But that is just how I trade. 11.28.11 I'm looking at bonds as part of a bigger picture to measure price action. Bonds are one of the best tells right now in the market. I watch Bonds, VIX, Dollar, Oil, leadership stocks, sectors, etc all to read price action. 12.5.11 This is where the number line really shines in my view as it's revealing price action that is not obvious on a daily chart just as you mentioned. 12.6.11I personally want to see price action confirm on all time frames. The best monthly A ups don't make weekly A downs. The best weekly A ups don't make intra-day A downs. Usually strong markets have failed A downs. So yes, I would be concerned if I was long anything that was making an A down. 12.9.11 I do not think it's possible to trade ACD without being a good price action trader. In fact, I don't think any TA works without price action. 12.14.11 A good price action trader can see things that no chart, no fundamentals or machine can see. 12.15.11 No, I'm not referring to Al Brooks. Price action is about taking the price of a market and observing its behavior in relation to something else. Could be a news item, like jobless claims, or could be news in a stock or a sector or macro news in Europe. Price action is about all the players at the card table throwing their cards down and showing you what they are holding. Tell me that not cool? What???? You want more? I need at least two attaboys and three "we want mores".
Anyone have thoughts on big stuff like fed rate change and acd tools? When we get large one day volatility following a rate change it kind of makes sense to me to put new a levels around that day and use it like I would a monthly.
I have been tempted to code this up. You can just use the days high & low +-<Avalue> then score accordingly. You can just subset your data by a list of fed calendar dates to get the days in question. There was someone doing similar in here already but cannot remember the handle.l
Do you know if there is some kind of database available that gives the financial events that took place that day with time?
Have not really checked. If I can get the time later I will throw together a web scraper and scrape a historical calendar. This link might be useful.
This also reminds me that I need outside markets to lean against as a reference point.I can't trade in a vacuum. Sometimes short-term relationships/correlations pop up that are not long lasting and that might not make it onto the radar of a typical academic who tortures longer-term data. If I am trading the ES then sure Nasdaq, Russell and Dow would be the usual suspects. But what about Yen? What about inverses like the 30-Year and 10-Year. If I am trading Wheat then sure I need to know what Kansas Wheat is doing but also inverses on Cattle would be useful as well. I remember a few years ago when Coffee and the Peso had something going on. I think these tells pop up and are gone before typical spreaders might even consider them. It seems like price action guys can pick up on it quicker than the rest of the crowd.