The "C" moves are interesting. ACD has opened a new way. I would see those moves before but not know what to do with them. But when you see those fail too it's probably just time to pack it in and avoid overtrading.
It's a lot like surfing. You just gotta deal with a lack of waves, not get bummed out. Try to do something else like work on your ride or make some cash on the side till it changes.
I've noticed more and more that trading is about conserving mental energy. And keeping a quiet mind so I can notice the shifts in momentum when they occur. And always being like a detective, keeping an open mind and building evidence. You want to be the guy noticing others getting run over after playing in traffic.
Right after Lee's surrender at Appomattox Court House in April of 1865, Sterling made a classic yearly A Down against the Dollar right in the 9.15 area, bounced slightly, and has continued down to the present rate right around last weeks 1.20 low. This is a profit of roughly 850,000$ per ONE LOT. This was a really obvious ACD trade to make, and anyone who didn't get on their horse and ride down to the Oanda office and short a ten lot is an absolute idiot.
Hello fellow ACDers. I have been live day trading ACD method for quite some time now to have experienced both capturing of large directional moves and enduring seemingly endless streaks of small losers. As well as a couple of cases of holding losers a bit too long in false hopes and missing a few very good opportunities (this one was the toughest to handle emotionally). Experiencing the both ends of the emotional roller coaster has left me with a weird mix of optimism and pessimism and a large dose of cynicism. I have only recently started tracking the number line but I haven't put it to use yet. I don't have confidence in it yet, just seems by the time you get a high NL reading, a large part of the move is already missed (I haven't tested this empirically, so just an idea I pulled out of my arse really). I have a question for the ACD veterans though. Do any of you use anything outside of the usual ACD/numberline stuff to guide your trading? Recently I have been thinking about putting another layer on top of ACD stuff and I have actually experimented with some ideas, but I'm afraid to overcomplicate the strategy ("adding all kinds of bells and whistles" as per Mark Fisher). What's your experience regarding this? I know there is not a single path to success, but it would be immensely interesting to hear a story from experienced.
It could happen...I am looking at the monthly chart and the last time when GBPUSD were around the current level was 1984 (when you were presumably in your 20s ) when GBPUSD depreciated to 1.05 level. That low will likely to be taken out when Hard Brexit happens and thereafter I expect GBPUSD to recover gradually. UK is facing the similar situation as US was in 1971 in which US abandoned the gold standard to protect the value of US dollar and America's financial industry; however, as a result, US dollar got devalued heavily - also known as the "Nixon shock".
UK's current account has been in a decreasing trend since they joined EU in 1971. UK had first deflation in 2015. Unemployment got really high after they joined EU in 1971. Unemployment rose after the financial crisis in 2009. Clearly, joining EU has worsened the economy of UK. There will be a short term negative impact but for the long term benefit, surely Theresa May will talk about hard-Brexit.
Hope you don't mind me bumping these two posts for anyone that's kind enough to answer: --- Hey Mav Really enjoying your thread from over the years. I'm an intraday Eurex trader got interested in ACD a few months ago and read Fisher's book a few times over now. I'm employing ACD with pivots and vwap standard deviation bands. ACD for context, usually vwap bands for entries and ADR high/low and weekly pivots for some of the longer hold exits. I'm using Kase bars to analyse monthly, weekly and daily trends and using monthly and weekly pivots to stay the right side of the market after doing my prep. I see from the thread that you're using monthly and weekly ORs. That seems a very nice way to create an even clearer long term contextual picture. I'm trading the bund and eurostoxx and I was unsure for as an intraday only wanting to use weekly/monthly ORs for context, what time frame the ORs should be around. For Eurex products the cash open will be more significant than the Eurex open, which is one hour later at 08:00GMT so I'll start weekly/monthly ORs from that point. Could you kindly guide me on a solid enough OR time frame for the weekly and monthly? Unsure on A and C values but will do some digging into which formula to use based on my timeframe. I like the idea too of creating a long term OR after a big ECB/Fed announcement whether the fundamental picture changes it - almost like a rest button for those longer term ORs. Thanks again for all your insight on this thread ---- As a second note I'm using daily ATR(10) x 10% for A and 15% for C values for my intraday trades. It seems to me that 20% or 25% is too wide which would prevent me getting on board any of the decent OR top (after A-up) or bottom (after a-down) touch trades that have been profitable for me in the past. However If I start to get hung on early A trades I may increase that percentage a bit. Journalling will show that up soon. Anyone use similar A and C values? Lastly if anyone is using NT could you kindly recommend a good range indicator to measure weekly and monthly ORs as I can only find daily OR indicators on the net. I do post a fair bit in BMT but will be posting here a few of my trades as I've been very impressed with the level of knowledgeable participants on the thread! Happy trading for 2017! ---
I use 3 hours for the weekly OR, but this is for FX and futures, the former trades 24-5, the latter almost, apart from a short daily break. For limited hours instruments it might make sense to use a shorter period. I use the first day of the month for monthly OR. I don't use a % of daily ATR for daily levels, I use the first few bars from the open. My reasoning is I want to capture the days volatility as it happens, not yesterday's 10 day look back. On a more volatile day I'll have wider A levels and it would take a more decisive move to confirm, else it fails and you trade the other way. I am however willing to experiment, one I'm running now is excluding the first bar for the DAX OR. It doesn't trade 24-5 so a lot of orders get executed at the open and that gives a very wide first bar. I posted some initial numbers earlier in this thread, I'll update as I get more. Market has been dead on range and volume since 16th December, hopefully it picks up tomorrow. You will have to experiment, I'm not a day trader and what you choose should fit your style, ie momentum or fade. Fisher said as much at the end of his book where he mentioned different people having different ORs depending on their style. No idea about NT, I use Sierra Charts.