I told my father about the ACD method and told him to watch Mark Fisher's seminar on Youtube. He's a programmer and he came up with a very simple program based on ACD that works surprisingly well, based on backtesting and so far a short limited live testing period. it's just based on buying A-Ups and selling A-downs, using the hedge in between as the maximum loss. Different ORs work better for different currency pairs. This program seems to work better for the majors than the crosses.
The one idea from Fisher that I was able to use right away is Time. In the major currencies, there's lots of smart Traders, lots of eyeballs watching those screens. When a move is happening, everyone usually knows about it, the best Traders know what the market should be doing given the circumstances. So if a currency makes a move and stalls, your usually better off just getting out or cutting. It's the Bus People concept. There's lots of overlap and even in a trending market like the Euro you get lots of retracements, some violent. You just don't want to hang around a bad neighborhood.
I guess another way to say that would be that I don't think trailing stops are a good idea in currencies. There's just too much noise. You need to see momentum. When the momentum stops, you're usually better off just taking what the market has given you and then give it some time to make up its mind. Yes you will give up the occasional continuation. But it will very often come back and retest that very price. It might be three days later, but by then few will remember. I'm looking for pressure, for Traders getting run over. Without that there is no edge.
Just checked out USD index thread. Need to resurrect that thang. Like they say, if you want something done right, gotta do it yourself. Haha. I really enjoy this thread. When I start thinking I know something about the markets, I come here and read. Brings humility. Which really has never been my problem, somehow. Good to see you too, Victory.
Yes, I do like that thread although Pip has not been active lately. Are you going to trade around inauguration? I will. Looking at the data in 2009 when there was Obama's inauguration, there was a good opportunity to make money. I think there will be another like that around Trump's inauguration.
Generally my instinct says stay away or treat it like a news release. The markets seem to have a Trump premium to them now. So it may be similar to "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news." Unless they sell off first, before the inauguration. It's just another day, and it's sort of old news, and it's not directly economic, but political. So I'm a little weary, but I welcome other opinions.