Seems like the nearly unanimous expectation is for a quarter-point hike today with a promise to raise very slowly going forward....what's the black swan today? Half-point instead? No hike?
Hey everyone, I've been lurking and following this thread for weeks, going over The Logical Trader and reading the posts here and trying to apply what I learnt to the charts. Thanks a lot to Maverick74 and all the other contributors here. I had been planning to trade options intraday following ACD. No spreads or anything, just using options as a proxy for stocks. Buy a call or put depending on my bias, then sell off. I'm trading a pure cash account, no margin and I like that buying options give you leverage + inherently limits your loss. Today I just made my first trade following ACD on a GOOG 795 Call expiring later today. I got in when the price was 2.35 after what I saw was a failed A down, the price went up to around 2.90 and held there for a while. It looked to be stuck that price for too long, so I sold it off at 2.85. It shot up to around 3.10 immediately after I sold it, lol, but then just as quickly went down again, so I think I was fortunate to get out there. This is my first live account on IB, it seems the fills are actually better on the live accounts than the demos, next time I'll try setting my limits closer to the bid/ask. It looks to me like the A down now is confirmed, but it's quite flat now so I won't trade any more, plus it's night-time where I am (Asia). I've done the number line GOOG and it is +11 but static for the last two days. I'm planning to use it for FX too. Thanks
About the only "clear' thinking and "share" on this thread! Yea maybe 50/50 these equities come off "soon"
One of the more fascinating things going on in the market right now which I don't hear many people talking about is the sharp steepening of the 2/10 and the flattening of the 10/30. Very sharp differences. This is actually very bullish macro speaking. What it's saying is that banks will be able to lend more money aggressively "without" triggering inflation. The 2/10 is saying the velocity of money is going to increase with little to no side effects. I don't know if I believe that but that is one of the reasons funds are willing to lift offers here so aggressively at all time highs.
I'm just happily long STPP (2/10 for those who don't trade it) and equally happily not long the NOB. I hadn't any idea about the implications you explain here, thanks, always good to know stuff. I did ask myself though, given the sharp (?) drop in the NOB, why I wasn't short? Maybe because I don't have the numbers on it, just a chart I rigged that may or may not be accurate.