just some passing thoughts , ES has some strength and crude looks like its got some legs so Steve i hope you hopped on the train .
SteveM and me hopped on that CL train days ago. I'm looking to fade the A UP here on the ES. I can't tell you how happy I am that the Number Line helped me avoid the garbage price action on the long side in the ES thus far. For all of the long time frame traders (weekly and beyond) then this is probably nothing too exciting for you.
Apologies for the delay in replying. As you already know I am a longer term trader however I cannot help but wonder why you would be looking for a one day sell off, in what has been quite a strong market? Surely it would make more sense to be looking for rallies rather than sell offs plus there are far better markets to anticipate a sell off than equities... I do not consider myself an expert here and so would prefer not to advise. As per my earlier post equities have been showing quite bullish of late and so IMHO this is a market not to be traded on the short side as of present that is.
Pretend for a second that you are an intraday trader. What happened today in the ES price action wise was garbage all day on the long side, same story on Friday. My A UP Fade worked out well. You can't look at today's price action on the long side and say that it was great. The A UP Fade was great today again, thanks to the Number Line. The Number Line has the power to keep you out of bad trades which is very powerful to me. As a longer term trader you must be worried about these daily failed A UPs right? It gave up a lot of upside today. I'm not asking you to pick a top here. I am simply saying that the price action is very choppy on the long side for an intraday trader. The short side is much easier and cleaner. The Number Line makes life much easier in that sense.
I think that if you understand what part of the cycle(numberline wise) that the ES is currently in then the price action makes complete sense, so no I am not that worried right now about my positions. If I were an intraday trader looking for something to trade short XLU would have been the one for me as its has been acting weak relative to the overall market. Its 30 day has declined by -10 over the last 5 days and it failed at the weekly Aup and has confirmed negative on monthly and quarterly time frames. Individual names looking good on the short side and without checking if shares are available, EXC has confirmed negative on weekly, monthly and quarterly timeframes.
Guys, if you are looking for something to short, everytime you feel the urge to short ES, just replace that ticker with GBP/JPY. It has worked for a year now. Just automatically code it in your software so that even if you tried to enter ES into your order entry, it will automatically replace it with GBP/JPY. You can thank me later.
Haha sure has been a nice play!!! It has been at the top of my fx list since you started talking about it way back...
Twilio (TWLO, 5day number line = +8), has been relentless lately. Four days in a row >+10% per day. Brings back the 1999 leopard-print tie nostalgia: Recent tech IPO, story stock, losing money. What's not to love?
Thanks for the advice Mav, always an honor to hear from the ACD Master. I probably would be better off shorting GBP/JPY intraday like you said. Watching every tick in the ES can be a beating. I might just focus on CL and maybe one other product. Take care.