I agree the market is mostly efficient most of the time ie. the price of KO or MCD is probably fairly priced right now. Whether central bankers attempting to control investor behavior is a hallmark of complete market efficiency is a question. Of course there are bubbles and panics. Of course all investors and traders aren't rational or acting rationally all the time. I leave with this quote from the book Maverick Trading (isn't this Mav74?): "EMT fails to adequately take into account fear and greed among market drivers (institutional investors)." Pg. 4
Cad strength makes sense with the tear oil/gold has been on. Are you seeing dollar weakness against all currencies? I guess this is one of those times NL help by keeping you out of the market and avoiding chop.
DT3 , its more to do with rate of change and time basically lost big chunk of value relatively quick (i don't know if thts the best way to put it but yh) on a overall basis. US dollar still doing ok relative to other pairs. Yep keep's you safe from difficult market conditions , i guess keeping out of difficult market conditions is half the battle.
i guess thts the next stage of the puzzle i need to work out with that being said Mav do you compare news flow alongside your numberlines ? or look at various different instruments and their number-lines and try develop a hypothesis (i was thinking of going down this route).
Could you share some of your thoughts with us Mav? I've seen a rise in commodities and oil...so maybe the dollar is being pressured by this rally in basic materials and metals? Although there has been a lot of chatter about an impending crash...with Carl Icahn going more negative than 100% lol...and this guy: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-12/milton-berg-we-are-cusp-30-year-bear-market
Want to get short but cant pull the trigger S&P bouncing again of the monthly A down, put/Call ratio at extreme levels, ISE under 50 print today and we're what 4% of all time highs?
Why do you want to get short? FWIW, the number lines are not bad, they are flat basically saying we have a choppy market. And it turns out, we have a choppy market. I'm guessing I'm just asking if there is something specific you are looking at. As you said we are only 4% off the highs. Not exactly a good reason to be bearish.
My NL are pretty negative. QQQ at -14, SPY about to confirm at -8 5 day NLs also negative. That's the only reason really. I thought we'd roll over harder today after the retail earnings #s we got this week and the fact we didn't just makes me reconsider taking any shorts at the moment.