The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    RCG, it's all notional based. A 3% drop in a currency is huge! I don't care if it moves in 100 pip increments. LOL. You get paid on notional value, not demarcation! LOL.
     
    #1131     Oct 26, 2011
  2. I use 5 min too. But you have to treat currencies like commodities. Not quite sure why yet. So if you do have another bone:)
     
    #1132     Oct 26, 2011
  3. I got that, but I have seen moves in Aud/Usd that are moves more than three percent. I have not yet figgered the exotics so I am posting out of my hip pocket and not on solid ground. Not debating, questioning.
     
    #1133     Oct 26, 2011
  4. Shanb

    Shanb

    LOL. I tried using a 5-minute OR originally and I was missing so many good moves. So hard to plug in the OR in excel, see the ATR %, plot it, confirm the a, take the trade lol!

    These A-levels work great tho, I see things bounce right off of these levels so often...sometimes they go right back through. The wider 20 minuted OR does provide good fades tho.

    One thing I look at the confirm a ranging stock. plot the volume histogram for the day. If the VWAP=POC(or the peak volume thing) then it is ranging(symmetric distribution). If it the VWAP is below it...then the distribution is skewed and fading it is a quick way to lose your shirt! I may be complicating the issue, but there is a difference between a stock that is stretched to the A and as a normal distribution or one that is skewed and trending!
     
    #1134     Oct 26, 2011
  5. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Yeah I've seen 3% moves all over the place, but I was pointing out this pair to you because it is the cleanest breakdown of the dollar I see across all the pairs right now. This thing ran up from 1.38 to 1.90 in less then a year. I think it could easily hit 1.50 again. But you missed the monthly A down at 1.82 so I would look for a failed weekly A up next week or perhaps a failed monthly A up in Nov to get in. This thing could drop 2000 to 3000 pips. I don't see the AUD/USD rallying to 1.35 or 1.40 in the same time frame. This monthly alone the pair has dropped almost 15%. This might just be the opening act.
     
    #1135     Oct 26, 2011
  6. Well, all currencies are not 1:1 as far as payment is concerned. Overly simplified, but I am sure you get the point.
     
    #1136     Oct 26, 2011
  7. Got that, I'm on it.
     
    #1137     Oct 26, 2011
  8. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Well cross rates are not 1:1 but USD based ones are.

    Anyway, the point I'm making here...is that the dollar index is up sharply today right? Risk assets are getting sold today right? Yet the dollar is getting killed against the TRY. That my friend is called price action! I look for pairs where the dollar is getting killed when risk assets are down. Heaven forbid we get an end of year rally in risk assets and this pair will totally collapse.
     
    #1138     Oct 26, 2011
  9. Shanb

    Shanb

    Man some of these currency moves are crazy! When RCG said you have to trade these like commodities, I can see that. This just makes me wonder what is reason some of these asset classes move so differently. Man I need to get of ET and get back to my studying...good trading everyone
     
    #1139     Oct 26, 2011
  10. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    The answer is.....leverage!!!!!!!!!
     
    #1140     Oct 26, 2011