The ACD Method

internals as in 2nd derivatives and relational spreads?

 

Well FCX has nat gas exposure. So no, stay away. But copper and gold commodities look really good.

 

No, just the ACD levels on 2500 stocks.

 

I bought some FCX bonds at 54 a couple weeks ago. They are over 80 now, so quite pleased on that move. Although I would have been better off buying the stock, I slept better holding the bond at that price and am quite happy with the gain thus far. I might sell into this strength though and look for other plays now that they recovered quite a bit of value

 

What is the cusip on those bonds?

 

I have two different issues:

The one I bought at 54.xx.......... 726505AM2
This one I bought around 64.xxx a week or two later..........726505AN0. This one is in my retirement account, so I will probably just sit on it.

I'm also holding a small amount of CHK, EXXI, and BBEP bonds. All are a long shot, but I have very little tied up in them. $16k in debt between the 3 and I paid under $1,000 for it all. In the CHK convertible preferred as well at $13 area.

Basically if things improve I will hopefully do very well well, and if not, I won't be out very much.

 

Where do you see the FCX bond at 80? I see it at 57.

 

Mav my own internal indicators are showing that at today's close we are quite overextended on both the lookback periods that I use, to the upside. Normally when we get to these levels and with the market as strong as it is we tend to get bullish skew and either get a time correction (trade sideways) or will retrace with only a little downside. What this does mean is that there has got to be significant bullish activity to maintain this rally.

In the past when we have been at similar levels as today, I have seen price rising against a declining indicator. If the market does correct it can normally spark off a 2-3 day decline. So this is not really a call to get short but I have been squaring long positions away today and will assess what happens tomorrow. I see it that the upside is capped somewhat and there is a definite skew there for large downside.

This is only on around 500 stocks as I have still got to change some code for the full kahoona version.

 

Red,

Do you automate your scoring for NL too? And what software do you use for that if you don't mind telling me.

 

Yes I coded everything up in R. Its probably not as fast as other languages but for shear grunt work its pretty good.