The ACD Method

Not just this thread, ET overall. Hell I think we went 4 hours with like 9 total posts on the entire site. LOL. The chat room at one point had like 3 people in it during the middle of the day. It was averaging 50 to 60 a week ago! LOL.

 

Very true but I did recognize similar low activity levels around the end of August. Its seems that when the charts gets gappy so too does the posting.

 

Perhaps we should make a number line of post frequency on here.

 

I might actually develop a sentiment indicator based on the chat room total since Baron provides that info in real time. I can grab the data at the top of each hour and calculate a daily avg and chart it over time.

 

I am not sure if you are familiar with it but "R" can do most of that. If I get the time I will code something up and see what it looks like.

Seems that SPY & DIA are leading the charge at the moment.

 

Hey Mav, can you talk about the last/marginal barrel of oil. I think the concept is important but
I am not very articulate when it comes to energy products.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/U.S.-Shale-A-Marginal-Not-Swing-Producer.html

 

King, in economics we learn that price is always set by the marginal supplier defined as the supplier with the highest marginal cost of production. Think of a line of people who are all selling the same product but who each have different marginal costs. In a competitive market like oil, price is determined by the market so each supplier sells at market price. But cost is unique to each firm hence the idea that firms compete on cost, not on price in a competitive market. So as price drops, the firm with the highest marginal cost of production drops off the supply chain. Each firm has a market price where they can no longer afford to supply to the market. The firm that is on the margin sets the price because their supply is the most sensitive to price. If demand increases so that buyers are willing to pay more to bring more supply into market, then higher cost producers can then enter the market again.

 

I do use R and I'm working on getting better with it. I need to get better at pulling data off websites likes ET. I'm sure there is a package on R that makes it easy. That sentiment indicator could be really nice.

 

ok...time to educate the redneck...what is "R" and how can it benefit my trading?

 

R is a free open source statistical analysis and modeling software with thousands of free add ons. It's a must have for every serious trader.

https://www.r-project.org/