Just in case anyone here wasn't watching on a Sunday: http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-stocks-idUSL8N1510J1 MLK 2016 is looking a lot like '08.
Since markets are closed Monday I believe that quote includes Friday's losses. Still down tonight, but not quite that much
Mav, Do you trade or keep track of USD/CNH? Would you consider longing that as a direct play on chinese devaluation or is that pair too proned to intervention.
Also expensive position. Check out IB for example: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=interest&p=schedule2. Imagine you have a bad timing, chinese intervene for example and you get stuck with such a position in red and now have a difficult decision even if your long term premise is correct. And like Maverick said it might be a very messy trade.
Per the Fisher comments about first day and first two weeks of the year, I bribed my darling daughter to input SPX data beginning around 1980. She inputs the "Setup" and "Results" and then I added the "Summary". I started with 98 so here's a number of them if you have an interest. 1998 Setup: First Day of Year (1/2/98) High: 975.04; Low: 965.73 First Two Weeks of Year High: 982.63; Low: 912.83 Monthly A Up: 993.34; Down: 947.43 First Quarter A Up: 1016.20; Down: 929.76 Yearly A Up: 1021.28; Down: 874.18 1998 Results: Highest High on 12/30/98: 1244.93 Lowest Low on 1/12/98: 912.83 Close on 12/31/98: 1229.23 New 52 Week Highs: 58 (First one on 1/29/98 and last one on 12/31/98.) New 52 Week Lows: None 1998 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. The first two weeks did establish the yearly low of 912.83 Monthly A Dn on 1/12/98 but negated on 1/14 and failed A Up on 1/29/98. Mo A up on 2/19/98 Yearly A Up on 3/3/98. 1999 Setup: First Day of Year (1/4/99) High: 1248.81; Low: 1219.10 First Two Weeks of Year High: 1278.24; Low: 1205.46 Monthly A Up: 1274.51; Down: 1193.40 First Quarter A Up: 1320.29; Down: 1171.31 Yearly A Up: 1336.39; Down: 1147.29 1999 Results: Highest High on 12/31/99: 1472.42 Lowest Low on 1/13/99: 1205.46 Close on 12/31/99: 1469.25 New 52 Week Highs: 36 (First one on 1/4/99 and last one on 12/30/99.) New 52 Week Lows: None 1999 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. The first two weeks did establish the yearly low of 1205.46 Monthly failed A Up on 1/8/99 and bumped head rest of month. Failed yearly A Ups started in April and succeeded in June/July. 2000 Setup: First Day of Year (1/3/00) High: 1478; Low: 1438.36 First Two Weeks of Year High: 1478; Low: 1377.68 Monthly A Up: 1502.34; Down: 1414.02 First Quarter A Up: 1528.13; Down: 1327.55 Yearly A Up: 1556.25; Down: 11299.44 2000 Results: Highest High on 3/24/00: 1552.87 Lowest Low on 12/21/00: 1254.07 Close on 12/29/00: 1320.28 New 52 Week Highs: 5 (First one on 1/3/00 and last one on 3/24/00.) New 52 Week Lows: None 2000 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. The first two weeks did not establish the yearly high or low. Monthly A Down on 1/5/00. Failed Quarterly A Down to the wick on 2/28/00. Failed Yearly A Up on 3/24/00 and failed Yearly A Downs beginning around 10/18/00 and continuing to end of year. 2001 Setup: First Day of Year (1/2/01) High: 1320.28; Low: 1276.05 First Two Weeks of Year High: 1350.24; Low: 1329.14 Monthly A Up: 1353.29; Down: 1243.04 First Quarter A Up: 1412.01; Down: 1212.83 Yearly A Up: 1449.28; Down: 1175.59 2001 Results: Highest High on 1/31/01: 1383.37 Lowest Low on 9/21/01: 944.75 Close on 12/31/01: 1148.08 New 52 Week Highs: None New 52 Week Lows: 18 (First one on 2/21/01 and last one on 9/21/01.) 2001 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low (but very close to high The first two weeks did not establish the yearly high or low (but very close to the high Monthly A Up on 1/24/01 and Feb had an A Down on 2/14/01 Quarterly A Down on 3/15/01. Price bounced around the Yearly A Down most of year beginning in late March and confirmed in mid September. 2002 Setup: First Day of Year (1/2/02) High: 1154.67; Low: 1136.23 First Two Weeks of Year High: 1176.97; Low: 1136.23 Monthly A Up: 1177.39; Down: 1113.49 First Quarter A Up: 1227.07; Down: 1085.72 Yearly A Up: 1278.13; Down: 1035.05 2002 Results: Highest High on 1/7/02: 1176.97 Lowest Low on 10/10/02: 768.63 Close on 12/31/02: 879.82 New 52 Week Highs: None New 52 Week Lows: 9 (First one on 7/3/02 and last one on 10/10/02.) 2002 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low (but very close to high). The first two weeks did establish the yearly high. Yearly A Down on 6/22/02 2007 Setup: First Day of Year (1/3/07) High: 1429.42; Low: 1407.86 First Two Weeks of Year High: 1435.27; Low: 1403.97 Monthly A Up: 1442.03; Down: 1395.27 First Quarter A Up: 1454.44; Down: 1380.72 Yearly A Up: 1482.68; Down: 1356.55 2007 Results: Highest High on 10/11/07: 1576.09 Lowest Low on 3/14/07: 1363.98 Close on 12/31/07: 1468.36 New 52 Week Highs: 40 (First one on 1/16/07 and last one on 10/11/07) New 52 Week Lows: None 2007 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. The first two weeks did not establish the yearly high or low. No Monthly A Up or Down in January but the highs on 24, 25 and 31 where bumping their heads. The first Quarter A Down held the lows in early March and August. The yearly low was right in the wheel house of the Yearly A Down at 1356.55 There was a Yearly A Up on 5/14/07 2008 Setup: First Day of Year (1/2/08) High: 1471.77; Low: 1442.07 First Two Weeks of Year High: 1471.77; Low: 1380.60 Monthly A Up: 1499.34; Down: 1414.44 First Quarter A Up: 1517.11; Down: 1365.90 Yearly A Up: 1528.26; Down: 1322.20 2008 Results: Highest High on 1/2/08: 1471.77 Lowest Low on 11/21/08: 741.02 Close on 12/31/08: 903.25 New 52 Week Highs: None New 52 Week Lows: 26 (First one on 1/17/08 and last one on 11/21/08) 2008 Summary: The first day of the year did establish the yearly high. The first two weeks did establish the yearly high. Monthly A Down on 1/9/08 Quarterly A Down on 1/23/08 Yearly A Down on 7/10/08 2009 Setup: First Day of Year (1/2/09) High: 934.73; Low: 899.35 First Two Weeks of Year High: 943.85; Low: 817.04 Monthly A Up: 993.27; Down: 840.78 First Quarter A Up: 1029.82; Down: 813.41 Yearly A Up: 1032; Down: 728.88 2009 Results: Highest High on 12/28/09: 1130.38 Lowest Low on 3/6/09: 666.79 Close on 12/31/09: 1115.10 New 52 Week Highs: 13 (First one on 10/14/09) New 52 Week Lows: 5 (First one on 2/27/09 and last one on 3/6/09) 2009 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. The first two weeks did not establish the yearly high or low. Monthly A Down on 1/22/09 Quarterly A Down on 2/20/09 They Yearly A Down level held in March and the market rallied for rest of year. Yearly A Up on 9/23/09 2010 Setup: First Day of Year (1/4/10) High: 1133.87; Low: 1116.56 First Two Weeks of Year High: 1150.41; Low: 1116.56 Monthly A Up: 1150.77; Down: 1099.66 First Quarter A Up: 1180.26; Low: 1075.50 Yearly A Up: 1249.03; Down: 1017.92 2010 Results: Highest High on 12/29/10: 1262.60 Lowest Low on 7/1/10: 1010.91 Close on 12/31/10: 1257.64 New 52 Week Highs: 31 (First one on 1/4/10 and last one on 12/29/10.) New 52 Week Lows: None 2010 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. The first two weeks did not establish the yearly high or low. Failed Quarterly A Down in early March and bounced to the A Up in late March. The July 1 wick hit the Yearly A Down and then rallied rest of year. 2011 Setup: 1/3/11 High: 1276.17; Low: 1257.62 First Two Weeks High: 1293.24; First Two Weeks Low: 1257.62 Monthly A Up: 1290.93; Down: 1242.84 Quarterly A Up: 1314.17; Down: 1221.08 Yearly A Up: 1383.70; Yearly A Dn: 1167.17 2011 Results: Highest High on 5/2/11: 1370.58 Lowest Low on 10/4/11: 1074.77 Close on 12/30/11: 1257.60 New 52 Week Highs: 23 (First one on 1/3/11 and last one on 5/2/11.) New 52 Week Lows: None 2011 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. (The yearly close however was dead on the first day low.) The first two weeks did not establish the yearly high or low. Monthly A Up on 1/18/11 Quarterly A Up on 2/15/11 The Yearly A Up volatility level was near perfect and the A Dn held in the early August to October period. 2012 Setup: 1/3/12 High: 1284.62; Low: 1258.86 First Two Weeks High: 1303.00; First Two Weeks Low: 1258.86 Monthly A Up: 1315.86; Down: 1227.62 Quarterly A Up: 1341.35; Down: 1202.11 Yearly A Up: 1391.96; Yearly A Dn: 1169.91 2012 Results: Highest High on 9/14/12: 1474.51 Lowest Low on 6/4/12: 1266.74 Close on 12/31/12: 1426.19 New 52 Week Highs: 17 (First one on 2/27/12 and last one on 9/14/12.) New 52 Week Lows: None 2012 Summary: The first day of the year did establish the yearly low. The first two weeks did establish the yearly low. Monthly A Up sorta almost on 1/26/12. Quarterly A Up in mid February. Failed Yearly A Up in March and April and it succeeded in August. Then hovered above and below and, as Mav has pointed out, when they break and run from this position it can often be strong. 2013 Setup: 1/2/13 High: 1462.43; Low: 1426.19 First Two Weeks High: 1473.31; First Two Weeks Low: 1426.19 Monthly A Up: 1481.30; Down: 1407.33 Quarterly A Up: 1504.57; Down: 1389.55 Yearly A Up: 1553.71; Yearly A Dn: 1345.77 2013 Results: Highest High on 12/31/13: 1849.44 Lowest Low on 1/2/13: 1426.19 Close on 12/31/13: 1848.36 New 52 Week Highs: 72 (First one on 1/17/13 and last one on 12/31/13.) New 52 Week Lows: None 2013 Summary: The first day of the year did establish the yearly low. The first two weeks did establish the yearly low. Monthly A Up on 1/23/13 Quarterly A Up on 2/12/13 Yearly A Up confirmed in early May and never looked back. 2014 Setup: 1/2/14 High: 1845.86; Low: 1827.74 First Two Weeks High: 1850.84; First Two Weeks Low: 1815.52 Close on 12/31/14: 2058.90 Monthly A Up: 1862.30; Down: 1811.30 Quarterly A Up: 1880.68; Down: 1788.90 Yearly A Up: 1927.12; Yearly A Dn: 1739.25 2014 Results: Highest High on 12/29/14: 2093.55 Lowest Low on 2/5/14: 1737.92 Close on 12/31/14: 2058.90 New 52 Week Highs: 56 (First one on 1/15/14 and last one on 12/29/14.) New 52 Week Lows: None 2014 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly low or high. The first two weeks did not establish the yearly low or high. Quarterly A Down on 2/6/14 that quickly reversed up and rallied for rest of year (one major pullback in mid October.) Yearly A Up confirmed in late June. 2015 Setup:1/2/15 High: 2072.36; Low: 2046.04 First Two Weeks High: 2072.36; First Two Weeks Low: 1988.44 Monthly A Up: 298.35: Down: 2020.05 Quarterly A Up: 2115.92; Down: 1948.90 Yearly A Up: 2150.67; Yearly A Dn: 1910.14 2015 Results: Highest High on 5/20/15: 2134.71 Lowest Low on 8/24/15: 1867.01 Close on 12/31/15: 2043.94 New 52 Week Highs: 12 (First one on 2/13/15 and last one on 5/20/15) New 52 Week Lows: None 2015 Summary: The first day of the year did not establish the yearly high or low. The first two weeks did not establish the yearly high or low. Monthly A Down on 1/14/15 A number of failed Quarterly A Ups beginning in late February. A number of failed Yearly A Downs in late August thru 1st of October. 2016 Setup: 1/4/16 High: 2038.20; Low: 1989.68 First Two Weeks High: 2038.20; First Two Weeks Low: 1857.83 Monthly A Up: 2069.46: Down: 1958.41 Quarterly A Up: 2096.86; Down: 1920.39 Yearly A Up: 2125.87; Yearly A Dn: 1770.16 Monthly A Down on 1/11/16.