The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. ignl

    ignl

    Hmm his advise to hold oil ETF for 18 months is horrible especially if we get to that real steep contango hoop is talking about :)
     
    #10751     Jan 8, 2016
  2. Forgot to say that we wicked nicely of the monthly A down on the 6th almost to the tick.

    Screen Shot 2016-01-08 at 22.42.46.png
     
    #10752     Jan 8, 2016
  3. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Well yeah I agree however I think he is implying a substantial move. I agree a small return to normal will not generate a profit with the contango. If oil does start making a large move higher it will eventually go into backwardation and the oil etf will have a positive roll yield. So keep that in mind. He also tends to be very early with his ideas so set the egg timer for 6 months and revisit the trade. LOL.
     
    #10753     Jan 8, 2016
    kinggyppo and ignl like this.
  4. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    It traded up to my monthly A up at 2.50. The number line is thinking about re-setting.
     
    #10754     Jan 8, 2016
  5. koolaid

    koolaid

    Mav,

    How would one trade the yuan's devaluation besides just being long dollars? Any other more direct way?
     
    #10755     Jan 9, 2016
  6. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    You really need to look for the possible residual effects. I like what Bass is doing by looking for banks that have loan exposure to China in the Asian region. That's one way to play China in general. So you want to look for stuff that is highly correlated to a weaker Yuan. I don't have any ideas off the top of my head except to say that where we are now, the world does not want to see the Yuan weaken more and that if such weakening occurs, volatility in the world will probably stay bid and go higher.
     
    #10756     Jan 9, 2016
  7. ignl

    ignl

    Hmm one idea could be to try your luck with timing and buy BABA when real trouble with china banking sector starts. By that time it will probably be down a lot and dropping so buyer will need to prepare his ACD :D Currency devaluation usually lifts stock market up and promotes exports in a longer term so BABA should be a good bet.
     
    #10757     Jan 9, 2016
  8. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    #10758     Jan 9, 2016
  9. Maverick74

    Maverick74

     
    #10759     Jan 10, 2016
    logicaltrader and kinggyppo like this.
  10. Of the top 50 stocks in the SP-500 with the best Relative Strength (scanned using an IBD based code in TC2000) 11 are just nearly dead on their monthly A down levels. Examples are

    AMZN: Mo A Down at 608.90 and it’s right there.

    ATVI: Mo A Down at 35.66 and Thursday Friday wicks are there.

    GOOG: Mo A Down at 713.45 and there is Friday’s wick.

    MSFT: Mo A Down at 52.11 and …… there’s a couple of wicks.

    And so on with TAP, FB, CB, ADBD, SBUX and CAM.

    You have about the same number with the next 50 and so on. That’s a large number not normally seen on the 5th trading day of the month.

    A breather here and some pop ups at these volatility levels wouldn’t be a surprise.
     
    #10760     Jan 11, 2016
    FCXoptions likes this.