NatGas finally made it to the press. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/28/natural-gas-prices-snap-back-on-cold-weather-outlook.html
Hey Koolaid, Ole Mav's post from back in July has helped me make the decision to jump when I otherwise wouldn't have. As us hillbilly's say .... "It's a goodern". "OK, I think you are confusing the different types of number lines. So the longest one or the macro one if you want to look at it that way, is the 30 day. The 30 day shapes our bias, our potential for the trade and our focus. The monthly number line re-sets every month. But the main purpose of the monthly is simply to confirm or reject monthly trades. For example, if the ES makes a monthly A up, our assumption would be that the price action should be positive. But if the monthly number line is zero, it's telling you that while "price" is moving higher, the product itself is NOT acting well. This is not a breakout I would want to chase. The 5 day number line is a momentum line. Because of it's short duration, it's giving you the very near term data. We use the 5 day to confirm momentum. The reason for this is because as you recall, the 30 day number line's value has two terms affecting change, the most recent data point and the furthest data point. Meaning the 30 day could be increasing in value solely from numbers dropping off from 6 weeks ago. Because of this fact, we use the most recent 5 days to verify if the increase in the 30 day is coming from the most recent 5 trading days or from old numbers dropping off. Each number line serves a different purpose and usually address the weakness of the others while having it's own weakness in some other area. It's the combination of all 3 that form a complete picture. I should reiterate that the 30 day number line should form the basis of ALL your trading. It should start there and reverberate out. The 30 day gives you your focus and your bias. From that 30 day, you have your A levels. And those A levels exist on many different time frames introducing the time variable. Let's dig deeper into this. Say a product has a +40 number line (using extreme values here) and let's say this product is way above the QTR A up. Is there a chance to enter? Well, let's dial down to the monthly levels. Well, it appears as though price is way above the monthly levels as well. Is there a chance to enter? Well, let's dial down in time to the weekly levels. Let's say we are also way above the weekly levels. Can we enter? Let's dial down to the daily levels. There we go. There is an entry on the failed A down even though price on paper looks very very extended. So what is the lesson here. The more extended a move is in time and price, ACD forces you to reduce your time and tighten your stops. Each lower time frame carries tighter stops and shorter time periods thereby reducing your risk. If you have to, you can dial down to the most granular level which is a single day to find the appropriate risk and time level. The other beauty here is, time eventually let you in. As time moves forward, new levels are formed even if price never retraces! That's the real unicorn here. Every 3 months we get new QTR levels. Every month we get new monthly levels and all you have to do is wait a few more days and you get a chance to lean on a weekly level and if you are really impatient, wait till tomorrow to get your daily level. Time is one of the biggest hidden value variables that 99% of traders on ET ignore and to their own detriment. Remember, value exists in time, not in price!!!!!!!!!!! Very very very few people understand this. Once this gets into your head, a whole new world will open for you."
The outlook is looking really grim indeed. https://next.ft.com/content/bd32cd77-778a-3af9-b703-91ab4fb70376
This squeeze was long overdue. All it took was the first cold weather spell to clear out the shorts. This was probably the smoothest product I had on my spreadsheet for the last 12 months. I actually got a long vol signal right on the low in price on natty that is probably up 5x by now. But deferred the trade due to the overall weakness. I do think there could be a good short opportunity here shortly if natty doesn't re-set, which it might.
yeah, i actually just sent you an email about it. G/H and H/J only up about .10 a piece on this. the curve basically just flattened out. i'm not sure where cash is trading though.