couple of links re the Dalio way, risk parity etc http://3p5bnx3przb73659la2iupn2.wpe...content/uploads/2014/10/All-Weather-Story.pdf http://mebfaber.com/2014/10/24/the-all-seasons-portfolio-aka-the-tony-robbins-portfolio/
NOB spread still trending higher along with WTI XZ. TF/ES got smacked pretty hard today. That "had" been trending nicely as well.
Our City fuel expense this year will run approximately $400,000 (vehicle gas and diesel). If you were estimating costs for 2016, would you estimate apx the same? ..... a little more? .... a little less? What say you
Its been difficult trading products this month. Lost track of my NLs mid month - couldn't focus enough. In hindsight, the only good trades were the failed MADn in both products around the 14th/15th. The weeklies were amazingly accurate across the petro complex this month but I couldn't trade them well enough because I puke easily and really need of a set of big brass ones. Nothing wrong with the method! Might be a red month unless we take off like we did the end of last month. Looking forward to next month though - new quarter etc.
Well, given that horrendous decline we saw this year it's going to be hard statistically speaking to have lower "avg costs". My guess is that avg fuel price will be only slightly higher next year.
Mav, Long term lurker here. I can't thank you enough for everything that you have shared - I started following this thread in 2010 and the education has been invaluable. One of your quotes that has always stuck with me is that ACD is a lens through which we can see the markets. I can attest to that: Now, after practicing ACD with your guidance for four years, I am actually starting to see, lol! I've never posted because I felt that I didn't have anything meaningful to contribute, but now is probably the right time to engage. My trading buddy Partha (who has posted on this thread before) and I have developed a few tools in TradeStation, ThinkOrSwim, Multicharts, Excel, you name it. We have also done some statistical analysis on ACD levels and NLs using TSSB (David Aronson and Timothy Masters, "Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments: Developing Predictive-Model-Based Trading Systems Using TSSB") which have led us to find our 'own' NL confirmation levels. Same as you, we are also experimenting with changes to the curves of the NL - the possibilities are endless there. One other thing we have done is take all the ACD values and feed it to a Neural Network to train it on ACD in various asset classes. This has turned out to be very successful and we have now connected the NN to TradeStation, where it now gives us a live NN ACD score for any symbol we pull up on radar screen. In the meantime the NN has become a better trader than I am (though that's not such a big accomplishment, lol) and we use it now as an 'idiot stoplight'. E.g., when they are running up TSLA and for the umpteenth I am tempted to short it, because there's no way it can go any higher from here, then I look at the NN ACD score and it might read 85 (with -100 being most bearish and 100 being most bullish) and I slowly back away from the 'Sell' button... Anyhow, you mentioned a while ago that you were doing some gray box kind of stuff and I wanted to check if you were interested in a collaboration to refine the ACD indicators further. The Neural Network path looks extremely promising so far (and does TSSB for statistical analysis) - I understand that your trading style is discretionary, but I think it can still be good to have sophisticated indicators that can give you a second opinion devoid of any emotions. E.g., one of the areas we'd like to explore is what values other than ACD should we feed the machine? Sentiment indicators like ISEE or combined ACD levels for stock indices, oil, gold, currencies to make it understand the 'whole' picture? Please let us know. In any case, thanks again for all of your insight, you have put us all here on a long, but rewarding journey!