The holiday was really long. Two weeks for me is like taking off a year. Loved London. Vienna was nice and actually really affordable. Paris was pretty dirty. I had no idea how mad the slums were outside Paris. I would say 95% of Paris is poor slums and 5% is very nice and what you see in post cards and in movies. London was very vibrant. Beautiful city, very easy to get around. And yes, very expensive. But I think the quality of life is worth the cost. As far as getting back to normal, it probably took me 5 hours plus of working on number lines but to get my feel back usually takes about a week of watching screens again. Your eyes see so much more then data can. Nothing can replace actual screen time.
I'm seeing a lot of conflicting signals which is actually pretty normal for August trading. The long Bond trade still looks good. WTI short looks good. I was surprised at the weak number line for dollar/yen being that it's been holding so well. Dollar/Peso and Dollar/Loony still acting well primarily due to weak oil. Yield curve has gotten hit pretty hard yet short vol is on fire. In August you really have to be patient and pick your spots.
What's stopping you from updating NLs when on holiday in Europe? Do you close all positions before going on holiday or set hard stops or what?
I had a few things on (options) that weren't terribly price sensitive. I was just really busy and always out somewhere and in the evenings completely exhausted. I like to do things in a normal routine.
A few broad market points of interest (for me anyway cause I like to track’em and then tell somebody ) on the 30 Day NL. >APPL reset on Wednesday and is now a 2. >DIA is a -1 >GLD is back to within another -9 or less of again confirming negative. >IBB reset from negative on Tuesday. >IJH (Mid cap Index) reset on Wednesday and is currently a 6. >SPY reset from negative on Friday. >XLK is within a hair of turning positive. >XLU confirmed positive on Thursday. (Note: My NL's are constructed with a 10 minute OR and a 10 minute confirmation.)
So probably the biggest takeway for me was that Fisher said he was shocked by the breakthru in technology. I am reading Shale' Boom and Bust by Dan Dicker. He was in the same camp, a long term bull on oil. In the book he talks about how a lot of the big players have left the physical space. He also believes that the US shale plays won't last. re Fisher he says you can make money far out on the curve, but as Mav says you may see a notes -collect, analyze, decide, implement -pattern recognition -recommends swing trading/longer term horizon -trading 3rd derivative (jerk/rate of change of acceleration) Mav??? -disintermediation-reduction in the use of intermediaries between producers and consumers -Fisher shocked by selloff due to technology/fracking -bus traders trading front month -$$$ on 24, 36 month curve -side note Dan Dickers book on Shale talks about banks leaving physical space -markets far out on the curve under valued -tech over Dodd Frank re oil mkts/horizontal drilling -looking for more pain in 2015/2016 needs more panic, bankruptcy -oil plays tech heavy? shale? look at midcap stocks not Exxon -buy front month spread close to expiration??? Mav -China was a crash, US looks good relatively speaking -stronger dollar -likes biotech -Saudis not swing producer like before -raise in rates bullish for commodities/physical vs paper -likes biotech and brokers, small/regional banks so Mav need clarification of 3rd derivative, discussion of oil curve, and buying expiring front month spreads, not thinking the last one is for a novice.
Yeah that short 3rd derivative comment caught my attention too probably because Maverick discussed it here not that long ago. However it is difficult to say what Fisher meant as he didn't say of what that 3rd derivative was. Price? Or maybe numberlines like Maverick? Rate of change of acceleration... I need to meditate a bit to try to grasp what does it mean