The 95% consensus is now just 43%

Discussion in 'Politics' started by WeToddDid2, Jul 30, 2015.

  1. jem

    jem

    The atmosphere is complex with built in negative feedbacks.

    NASA confirms co2 also cools earth.

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22mar_saber/

    "For the three day period, March 8th through 10th, the thermosphere absorbed 26 billion kWh of energy. Infrared radiation from CO2 and NO, the two most efficient coolants in the thermosphere, re-radiated 95% of that total back into space."

    and this...



    “Carbon dioxide and nitric oxide are natural thermostats,” explains James Russell of Hampton University, SABER’s principal investigator. “When the upper atmosphere (or ‘thermosphere’) heats up, these molecules try as hard as they can to shed that heat back into space.”
     
    #181     Sep 11, 2015
  2. David S

    David S

    So, again, you are quoting information about the UPPER atmosphere, not the lower atmosphere which is what is affected by greenhouse gases and where AGW occurs.

    Additionally, while the "atmosphere is complex with built in negative feedbacks," there are limits to what these feedback mechanisms can accommodate. Just as our bodies have multiple feedback and homeostatic mechanisms, these mechanisms can be overwhelmed in their capacity to regulate. This can result in a loss of homeostasis and, ultimately, death.​
     
    #182     Sep 11, 2015
  3. Ricter

    Ricter

    Just so you know, others of us have had this same argument with jem for YEARS.

    In fact, post the rebuttal to this "CO2 cools" bit of his that you can find on... lol... wattsupwiththat.com.
     
    #183     Sep 11, 2015
  4. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Let's explore points 1 and 2 further...

    Your first point was about the Cook survey... let's take a deeper look... The heads of the climate departments at Georgia Tech (Curry) and M.I.T. (Hilst) have stated unequivocally that the Cook survey undermines Climate Science. Dr. Judith Curry has been very vocal in her dismissal of this report.

    The Cook report and the marketing of 97% Consensus (as outlined in the leaked SkS emails) coupled with deliberately organized attempts to destroy & fire scientists who in any way disagree with AGW shows how "climate change" is merely a political subject and no longer a science. The science involved in "climate change" has been reduced to pure political driven alchemy - this is sad for both sides of the discussion.

    This has led to leading scientific universities to no longer taking on any AGW focused studies or grants in an attempt to avoid political backlash of any type that would jeopardize other funding.

    The Cook survey claim of a 97% consensus is immediately busted by the mere 8 scientists I provided earlier. Removing their papers from the supporting AGW column reduces the total support to below 97% - making the 97% claim and associated consensus campaign meaningless (BTW – it is already meaningless… just as much as any consensus campaign in year 1400 claiming the world is flat).

    The most immediate problem with the Cook survey is the methodology. There are numerous papers that explore the flaws in the depth.

    Tol statistically deconstructs the 97% Consensus
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/tol-statistically-deconstructs-the-97-consensus/

    Tol noted – “3167 abstracts (out of 11944) were demonstrably misclassified. 99.4% of those were rated as endorsements."

    Friends of Science demonstrated that Only 65 Scientists of 12,000 Make up Alleged 97% on Climate Change and Global Warming Consensus According to Breakdown of Cook et al study - http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/5/prweb10772757.htm

    Let’s just touch on a few of the hundreds of mis-classified papers as outlined by Tol and others in the Cook survey…

    “Atmospheric Methane – Its Contribution To Global Warming,Applied Energy,Badr| O; Probert| Sd; Ocallaghan| Pw,2,2”
    Used as proof of AGW, but counters the CO2 theory, as methane is the problem.

    “Global Warming And The Growth Of Ice Sheets,Climate Dynamics,Ledley| Ts; Chu| Sp,2,3”
    Ice sheets growing, counters the catatastrophic consequences claim.

    “Varying Boreal Forest Response To Arctic Environmental Change At The Firth River| Alaska,Environmental Research Letters,Andreu-hayles| L; D’arrigo| R; Anchukaitis| Kj; Beck| Psa; Frank| D; Goetz| S,2,”
    Evergreen trees at the edge of Alaska’s tundra are growing faster, suggesting that at least some forests may be adapting to a rapidly warming climate, says a new study, counters the catastrophic theory.

    It is amusing to note that Cook classified Dr. Soon's papers (who deeply opposes AGW theory) as supporting the "consensus".

    Of course there are many articles outlining the numerous flaws involving methodology in the Cook survey.

    Cooking Climate Consensus Data: “97% of Scientists Affirm AGW" Debunked
    http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/...sus-data-97-of-scientists-affirm-agw-debunked

    One your earlier points focused on the Legates report. The real intent of the Legates report was to make a mockery of the extremely poor scientific method used to generate the Cook report. The Legates report was very successful of using the mirror scientific method to come out with the exact opposite result.

    The Myth of the Climate Change '97%'
    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/wsj-myth-of-climate-change-97-what-is.html

    “Mr. Cook's work was quickly debunked. In Science and Education in August 2013, for example, David R. Legates (a professor of geography at the University of Delaware and former director of its Center for Climatic Research) and three coauthors reviewed the same papers as did Mr. Cook and found "only 41 papers—0.3 percent of all 11,944 abstracts or 1.0 percent of the 4,014 expressing an opinion, and not 97.1 percent—had been found to endorse" the claim that human activity is causing most of the current warming. Elsewhere, climate scientists including Craig Idso, Nicola Scafetta, Nir J. Shaviv and Nils- Axel Morner, whose research questions the alleged consensus, protested that Mr. Cook ignored or misrepresented their work.”

    [​IMG]


    Of course an in-depth deconstruction of report will state Cook's survey not only meaningless but also misleading; fails to mention they found more papers rejecting AGW than say humans are primarily responsible

    Cooking the books: John Cook's new survey is not only meaningless, but is also highly misleading because it fails to mention that they found more scientific publications whose abstracts reject global warming than say humans are primarily responsible! Only 65 out of a total of 12,271 abstracts endorsed the position that man is primarily responsible for climate change. That would indicate a 0.5% non-consensus on man-made global warming.

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/05/cooks-survey-not-only-meaningless-but.html


    Your second point focused on the consensus... There are numerous surveys which demonstrate there is no 97% consensus among scientists in regards to AGW. Some of the these surveys have already been posted to this forum, and here are some others. The only consensus which is clear is as more evidence and data are put forward the consensus over AGW is eroding year after year.

    New Study: Majority of Climate Scientists Don’t Agree with ‘Consensus’
    ‘Nearly six in ten climate scientists don’t adhere to the so-called “consensus” on man-made climate change, a new study by the Dutch government has found.’

    http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/fil...ence-survey-questions-and-responses_01731.pdf

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...climate-scientists-dont-agree-with-consensus/

    Only 50% Of Scientists Blame Mankind for Climate Change In New Study
    ‘More shocking was that just 53 percent of climatologists surveyed thought “Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by human activities.” While that number of climatologists was small, the result is still significant.

    This evidence is inconvenient to the many media outlets that have endlessly repeated that 97 percent of scientists endorse the global warming hypothesis.’

    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/sean-l...ntists-blame-mankind-climate-change-new-study

    Only 39.5% of 1,854 American Meteorological Society members who responded to a survey in 2012 said man-made global warming is dangerous.

    http://www.climatechangecommunicati...-global-warming-preliminary-findings-february

    Of course the recent IPCC report has been ridiculed even more than the Cook report…

    Top Scientists Slam and Ridicule UN IPCC Climate Report
    http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/...tists-slam-and-ridicule-un-ipcc-climate-repor

    ‘In another commentary about the report, Dr. Curry said it was time to shut down the whole IPCC. “The diagnosis of paradigm paralysis seems fatal in the case of the IPCC, given the widespread nature of the infection and intrinsic motivated reasoning,” she explained. “We need to put down the IPCC as soon as possible — not to protect the patient who seems to be thriving in its own little cocoon, but for the sake of the rest of us whom it is trying to infect with its disease. Fortunately much of the population seems to be immune, but some governments seem highly susceptible to the disease. However, the precautionary principle demands that we not take any risks here, and hence the IPCC should be put down.”’



    The bottom line is that the “percentage consensus” circus has nothing to do with the reality in regards to climate change. The politically driven consensus nonsense has no purpose in the scientific research world that should be driven by scientific results that have integrity using data that has not been “adjusted”.
     
    #184     Sep 13, 2015
  5. The bottom line is that essentially all of the world's experts believe that man made global warming is true and that most of the warming over the last fifty years is due to man.

    This is the essential fact once one looks beyond word games and obfuscation and mental masturbation.
     
    #185     Sep 13, 2015
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

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    #186     Sep 13, 2015
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

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    #187     Sep 13, 2015
  8. ^

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    #188     Sep 13, 2015
  9. fhl

    fhl

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    #189     Sep 13, 2015
    gwb-trading likes this.
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

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    #190     Sep 13, 2015