I can neither confirm nor deny this information Anywayz, with regard to an older thread of yours about crowdfunding. I thought about it from both the investor and the funded perspective. While getting funded does superficially seem the better option (play roulette on somebody else's money - as long as it's not the Russian one!! ), in the light of my 80% rule I would much rather lean towards investor. Seems like you too but there's another problem here: while I've in the 99.99% chances of success asking some "startup" to please, please take my money, the chances of getting them back with interest are severely violating my 80% rule. Resurrected your original thread about crowdfunding by the way, I'm interested in the concept more than if first meets the eye
Allright, allright, I agree. It's a traders forum and some of you might carry furter "déformation professionnelle" in taking words too literally. Can we depart a bit from buying stock and view the 80% rule in a more philosophical way? Like, choices in life with 80%+ probability of success as compared to much smaller? Say choosing to wank the monkey in the next 5 minutes versus not dying in the next 205 years. Sorry for the frivolous start, just wanna set this thread a bit off it's initial track. This is supposed to be a reflection / mildly entertaining discussion, assholes who attack me gratuitously get banned.
I find it mildly entertaining. Especially after fordewind called you an alcoholic, but you quipped back with "deformation" with the elan thingy over the first e. I'm not sure it is the sign of an alchy, but it is a sign of someone who is focused on a task. And a sign of a Frenchman? Italiano? Heheh! Hard to explain.
Romanian. We call it "deformație profesională". I've put a thread on this forum where I'm asking both natives and non-natives (like me) to asses their English vocabulary knowledge. I'm in the 12,000 - 14,000 words by the way. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/test-your-vocabulary.327440/ Only, a native TEENAGER speaks in the 18,000 words. An adult speaks in the 30k-45k. We don't have such a statistic here but as a native Romanian and also an educated one who reads books, I'm implying I also speak in the 40k words in my native language (some of which overlaps with yours). So when you measure me (we're traders and quants so think a bit about measure theory), you may conclude I'm dumber than a dumb teenager of yours (whatever broken definition of that you may have). Like some piece of shit imbeciles I banned from my threads. On the other hand if I MEASURE YOU, you're total shit in MINE. "Change of measure" it's just another word for "who has the power" (to fuck the other one in the *ss). Anywayz, coming back to "professional deformation", I obviously know the words but gut feeling (of those 12k words I already speak, plus their grammar) says they don't sound RIGHT in your language. So wtf, looked on Google and got this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Déformation_professionnelle I still think "déformation professionnelle" sounds much sleeker and educated than dumbfuck "job conditioning" (at the level of the guys that I gracefully dismissed).
Not a backtest expert, but I'm pretty sure you'd get 80% success rate (I assume that's what 80% means) by selling OTM puts at .2 delta. You might still lose money because the losing trades would swamp the winning trades.