The 80% rule

Discussion in 'App Development' started by Aquarians, Feb 4, 2019.

  1. speedo

    speedo

    80% is easy to achieve....if you're willing to eat like a bird and shit like an elephant.
     
    #11     Feb 4, 2019
    Overnight likes this.
  2. Handle123

    Handle123

    Most likely you never will, what would anyone who has them to gain by telling anyone?
    I have had up to 95% losing commodity trades in a year and did well cause all the hedging, so you can do miserable in one area and clean up in other.
     
    #12     Feb 4, 2019
  3. Yeah, but unless I was drunk or otherwise don't remember well, you also claimed in the 98%+ positive on the WINNING side. Which leads us to your original question.
     
    #13     Feb 4, 2019
  4. Metamega

    Metamega

    I think you’d have to be naive to think in a competitive marketplace that any profitable edge with 80 percent win exists.
     
    #14     Feb 4, 2019
  5. Palindrome

    Palindrome

    Virtu Financial, one of the largest HF Trading shops:

    Per trade 50% win rate, 25% lose rate, 25% scratch rate

    Yearly 99% of their days are green
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2019
    #15     Feb 4, 2019
  6. wildchild

    wildchild

    That is not going to work. Putting together a 80% of success strategy is not that hard. The problem is, the 20% of the time it fails, you are going to get flattened.
     
    #16     Feb 4, 2019
    smallfil, fan27 and Palindrome like this.
  7. Palindrome

    Palindrome

    It's a myth all traders want to believe is true. Win all the time, lose infrequently. It's pain avoidance.

    We are programmed to want this to be reality.

    We are programmed to rather have steady gains, then "lumpy" gains...
    EVEN IF the lumpy gains are larger then the steady gains...we still would rather the steady...again because we are programmed this way.
     
    #17     Feb 4, 2019
  8. maxinger

    maxinger

    Archers aim for 100% accuracy.
    Surgeons aim for 100% success.

    Traders are different.
    100% or even 80% success rate is a very bad lousy system.

    I aim for 50 to 60% success rate.



    This is probably the result of high success rate system :

    +5 ticks
    +2 ticks
    + 3 ticks
    + 4 ticks
    + 1 tick
    - 100 ticks
    + 4 ticks
    + 2 ticks
    - 80 ticks
    + 2 ticks
    ie eat like mouse, shit like elephant.


    This is my typical result :
    + 50 ticks
    - 15 ticks
    - 12 ticks
    - 1 tick
    + 5 ticks
    + 20 ticks
    - 15 ticks
    + 2 ticks
    + 80 ticks
    - 12 ticks
     
    #18     Feb 4, 2019
    billv, Palindrome and Overnight like this.
  9. smallfil

    smallfil

    What matters is your expectation or edge. If you have negative expectation even a 90% win rate will not matter. The 10% of the time you are wrong, that would be enough to wipe you out totally! In contrast, a 30%, 40% or 50% with a huge edge will result in a positive expectation enabling you to win enough to wipe out all those small losses. You need large gains and small losses when you have a lower win percentage.
     
    #19     Feb 4, 2019
  10. tsznecki

    tsznecki

    Oh I don't know because a salary pays for food and rent? Did the automated code tests magically write themselves?

    Oh web is easy? Let's just bring that up to the engineers at Google, Facebook, any Big N tech firm.

    Life is hard. You think you are entitled to something? Fucking loser.
     
    #20     Feb 5, 2019