F2 Comments: The market opened lower after the OVN session rejected 121-00 on its opening. While the market didnât break sharply, it did slowly trade lower and finished weak. Only thing I can see that would stop a retest of todayâs lows would be heavy selling in the ES. Some news to navigate Friday: Export prices; Import prices; Trade Balance at -30.0 Byn; Michigan Sentiment at 71.0. If the ES is sideways to higher, want to sell early strength and see if 118-24/119-00 can be taken out. If not, will cover. If the ES is lower, can trade from the long side and see if 119-28/120-00 can be taken out.
Pre Market Opening Comments for Friday 7/10 Charles Cochran: (7/10/2009 06:11)_ES sold OVN which rallied the financials. Put protection was taken yesterday in the Note. Bond was steady as far as OI in outrights and options. Down to direction of ES again this monring. Given the lack of buying out of the G-8 meeting the ES looks lower today too. Will open the day session in yesterday's early sell zone (prices above value), at resistance. If 120-12+/- is rejected again today, would expect long liquidation as per yesterday in the Bond. Buy zone will be 119-25/29 followed buy 119-21OB. Sell zone will be rejection of 120-08/12. No market moving news this morning. ES and EOW profit taking should be the biggest dynamics we face in today's session.
F2 Comments: The market traded higher Friday after support was tested in the OVN session and held. The ES was under pressure and sold and this supported the Bond, which did close strong. The market is pointed higher Monday. No scheduled news for Monday. Weekend news and the ESâs direction should be the marketâs focus. Weakness in the economy is taking the market higher. If the ES is sideways to lower, want to buy early weakness and see if 121-08/12 can be taken out.
Wrap-Up for Monday, 7/13 F2 Comments: The OVN session did retest Fridayâs highs and it held. The day sessionâs high was even lower. From there the easiest way for the market to trade was lower for the rest of the day and the market did close weak. It is pointed lower Tuesday. Lots of news to navigate Tuesday: Core PPI is expected at +.1%; PPI at +.8%, Retail Sales at +.5%; ex-auto at +.5%; Business Inventories at -1.0%. If ES is sideways to higher, want to sell the ZN at 118-15/19 OB w/a cover, if 118-00± holds.
Question: where did you get the concept don't fade a Move from the Middle? I am just curious as it has saved me 2x's in the past week. Thx! e.b.
I, personally, got the concept from Charles Cochran. But the theory behind it is that the market has come into balance over a period of time, see Steidimeyer on Markets, second edition, and one large commercial order upsets the balance and gets the market moving in a particular direction. Since the market had been in balance, others join the new move, thus if the market is falling, there is no current buyers. If rising, there is no current sellers. So you don't fade the move at your first resistance level.
F2 Comments: The market opened lower Wednesday and traded lower for the rest of the day. It is pointed lower for tomorrowâs market too. Some news to get through in the morning: Jobless Claims is expected at -565K; Net Long Term TIC Flows at 11.2 B; and Philly Fed at -5.0. The reaction of the ES should tell the tale of tomorrowâs tape. Want to sell early strength and see if 116-00/04 can be taken out. If not, will cover. First sell band is 116-23/27 followed by 116-30 OB.
F2 Comments: Markets donât go straight up, nor down. The market paused and consolidated Wednesdayâs selling. An inside day usually means that a new move is setting up over the next couple of days. Most likely direction would be the selling that generated the pause day. Some news to influence Fridayâs trading: Housing Permits is expected at 523K; and starts at 530K. And tomorrow is ES expiration day. If a squeeze develops, the ES can blow through 950. Can trade from either side tomorrow. Can sell failure at 117-08/12 or buy, if the market rejects and 116-20 holds.