Trading Range Continues on Tuesday F2 Comments: The market was a trading range, period. The close was mid-range. The profile was split. The market got stops above 122-225 setting up a possible test of near support at 121-24. Some news for Wednesday: ADP Private Employment is expected at -643K; crude inventories. This news will be out at 0815 and behind us when the 10Y auction dynamics begin to play. The Dealers can play the auctions from the low side or high side. Should get our answers tomorrow. Can see two sell zones, especially if the ES rallies. Sell 122-19/23 or 122-27/31. Cover, if 122-00/04 holds. If 122-00/04 does hold, OK to get long. Exit, if 122-20/24 is then rejected.
Still Range Bound F2 Comments: The market is stuck in a range awaiting its next move. The new move should emerge from the 122-12/16 area. That said, we have another auction to get through before fundamentals start to kick in. Longer term the never ending supply of debt will drive prices lower. Think tomorrow will see the sellers and buyers as support and resistance are tested. I also think it will take a rally to get the 30Y paper off the Dealerâs shelves. The first trade I see is a sale to retest support. If support at 122-00/04 holds, will begin to look for long trades. Sell zone is 122-11/15. Buy zone is 122-00+/-.
If your method works and since you have been in the profession so long, should not one of you (or both) be a billionaire?
The second sentence is false, because the first sentence is true, irrespective of the skills of the participants: trading is a negative sum game. Your teaching or others teaching, all they can try to do is be better than the next guy. If tomorrow another guy can trade better than you, he can make your method a loser (not because of your methods) but because he happens to find a way to outgun you. So in trading your success does not come from you, but it comes from the weakness of others. Your chance of success are less than 20%, and you have no control over them. Anytime you can be out of business.
Non Farm Payrolls - Biggest Number of the Month Here is Charles Cochran's early comments. 05:55)_Morning. Finanacials sold OVN and indexes rallied. Latest extimates for NFP are < 600K. Still a news day trade. The fact that the concensus is now below 600K mitigates some of the downside, if it actually comes in this way. The lower prices have built in some room for fewer job losses. If over 650, would expect a rally. down to the month's biggest scheduled news.
This Update is for the 10 Year Note F2 Comments: The market caught negative news when the NFP was well below the estimates. The initial sell off brought in buyers and these buyers took the Note to 120-21 before the buying was exhausted. The close was strong. The market is pointed higher on Monday with some help from the ES and weekend news. If the market can rally on Monday, it is short from last weekâs activity and a short covering rally could take the market back to 122-00 or higher. Sunday night activity will help clarify the picture for Mondayâs opening. I can trade from either side on Monday. I can buy early weakness and see if 120-21 can be taken out. Or sell failure to extend Fridayâs range. The buy zone is 120-01/05. The sell zone is 120-19/23. Will update Monday morning.
Ya think? If you consider the time that he first started posting on ET, he should at least have a high six figures stash sitting around someplace. :eek: *** Here's some free marketing advice. If you posted in the PnL Thread 2009 your real money trades every day instead of updating this boring thread, you'd have people clamoring to get into your room.
Comments for Monday, 5/11 F2 Comments: The buying that started on Friday continued in the OVN and day session. And the close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices Tuesday w/out news. If the early news is close to expectations ( Trade Deficit is expected at -292 Byn) and the ES is lower, the rally should continue. Want to buy early weakness and see if 121-20/21 can be taken out. If 121-20/21 is rejected, I will begin to look to the short side of the market. Buy zone is 121-01/05 OB. Exit this trade, if 121-20/21 is then rejected.
bhthomas, Thank you for your posts. As someone who trades MP, your analysis is a welcome addition to my own toolkit. Regards, John
Tuesday Closing Comments F2 Comments: The market opened a bit soft, retested support at 120-28 and rallied to hit 121-16, #3 resistance. Resistance held and the market settled into a range with buyers below 121-06 and sellers above 121-12. The close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices tomorrow with some help from the news. Wednesdayâs news: Import/Export prices; Retail Sales at -1.%; ex-auto at Unch.; Business inventories at -1.1%. Will need some help from the ES post the news. If the ES sells again, then the last reason not to buy the ZN/ZB will be taken away. Want to buy early weakness and see if 121-20/21 can be taken out. Buy zone is 121-01/05. Exit and/or reverse, if 121-20/21 is rejected.