Another News Day Trade Developing Today the Bond was up big after the 8:30 news. Tomorrow should be more of the same. NFP is one of the biggest numbers of the month. F2 Comments: A news day trade. Early news was much better than expected and the market rallied as one would expect. Very little in the way of setbacks in the session either. The market I s poised to trade higher w/some help from the news. Full news slate tomorrow. NFP is expected at -75K; Unemployment at 5.6%; Cons. Spending at -.3% and ISM Index at 49.2. A news day trade. Want to enter on the first setback w/the news. If the dayâs range isnât extended, will exit the trade.
So, where and when did you short your ZBs after the stronger than expected NFP (headlines and revisions)?
I think the software is wonderful, however, I keep hearing bad results from other traders, both stuck in the indecision mode or simulated trading paradigm. also, there remain complaints over over pricing of the services, since there is no posted listing of constant prices, hence everyone gets a different rate, which seems dishonest. perhaps if you could thin your ranks of those most traders have problems with, then others might take it more seriously, frankly, I have never seen charts as accurate as these, just remains hard to interpret what to do (predictive) as versus what has happened (past tense) traders live in the futures, as they have to take actions based on anticipated outcomes not yet evidenced. simply put, the more successful they are at that, the longer they stay around. high overhead and expenses burns their accounts and limits their ability to stay as traders.
Response to Bernard111 Here's what I did this morning, 8/1, after the 8:30am EST news announcement. The breakout from the overnight session's highs or lows is fast becoming my first, and sometimes only, trade of the morning. The news hit right at the start of the z period (7:30 to 8:00am EST). I sell stopped into the market 1 tick below the overnight low (the range was bracketed) with a 4 tick profit target and a 4 tick stop loss. Had the trade made only 3 ticks, my stop would move to B/E+1. This wasn't the case today. Note that the overnight session was decidedly a b formation, suggesting that the market would trade lower.
2nd Response to Bernard111 The news day trade that typically forms on the 1st setback after the initial thrust of the news release didn't meet my parameters today. I want an 8 to 12 tick pullback, but will accept 6 ticks. Today's pullback was 16 ticks. I also didn't get a deceleration square, rotational triangle, or S above the pullback bar. So I passed on the trade, even thought it eventually proved successful. What I did do was wait until the 2nd standard deviation level was hit (the orange line), and the market pulled back to the value area low, which is the first standard deviation. Even though that was only 4 1/2 ticks, I did get a deceleration square, a rotational triangle, and a S. When that bar was almost closed, I sold at .105's and barely squeeked out another 4 ticks. I posted both these trades in the TIE trading room before they occurred. That was my day.
Response To limitdown I am not a Trademaven employee, but I do know that their clearing rates are scaled based on the number of contracts you trade each day. I think that that is what you're referring to when you state that everyone pays different rates. These rates are published. If you'd like to discuss the rates for different markets at different levels, call Chris Foss at 312-521-7345 or 800-845-9685. The rates for the software and trading room have not changed. The software is $300 a month (which includes your E-Signal data feed); the trading room is $250 a month. If you subscribe to both, it's $499 a month. Regarding your before the fact/after the fact comment, what I do is choose three trades, which my record keeping shows are at least 66% winners, and take them every time they occur. I do this until I have made my daily business plan, which is 4 ticks trading multiple lots. After that I switch to sim and post in the room if I see a good set-up. If your record keeping is accurate and your trade parameters are well defined, this should allow you to make your business plan. You must be able to quantify your market edge. I can't stress this enough. So many traders think they have an edge, but the numbers seldom support their belief. Wishing is more the norm. This is why I like the Trademaven software. It gives me a unique look into the market that I can't get elsewhere.
Trading The Fed Announcement As is the norm, nothing happens on a Fed day until the chairman speaks. The all h*** breaks loose. The most conservative way to trade this news, or any news for that matter, is to wait for the set-back. 8 to 12 ticks is best, but you can settle for 6. At 14:40, we got a 6 1/2 tick pullback, a deceleration square, a rotational arrow, and an S. That qualifies as a set back. Taking the sell out the bottom of the setback bar at 115.145, you had 5 1/2 tradeable ticks available before the market pulled back a second time. If your business plan is 4 ticks trading multiple lots, as we suggest, you had a boring morning but a profitable afternoon.
Repetitive Patterns I know I'm sounding like a broken record, for those of you who remember records, but these conditions repeat day after day. 1. 2500v bar makes new low but is really thin, indicating a lack of selling interest. 2. The next bar retests the low on lower volume. 3. The mode (the magenta bar which shows where the greatest volume of trades has occurred on that bar) on the retest bar is almost on the high. The close is almost on the high. 4. The retest bar has a deceleration square, showing that the selling has dried up, and a rotational arrow. 5. All this occurs at a historically low volume area, as shown by the histogram in the right margin. Add it all up and you have enough evidence to consider a buy, anticipating a trend reversal.
Start With An Idea For Monday 8/11 The first step in the trading process is to start with an idea. Charles Cochran's idea for Monday 8/11 is as follows: F2 Comments: Another up day in the Bond market. The rally continues. The market absorbed some selling off the less than expected Productivity number, but didnât break. Stops were pulled below the âbuckâ and it was a range trade thereafter between 116-06 and 116-20. The close was strong. The market is pointed higher w/some help from the news. Lots of news to impact Mondayâs trading: the fighting in Georgia , crude prices, Asian and European follow through from US markets. No scheduled news for Monday morning, but a full news slate for the week. Want to buy early weakness and see if 116-28/117-00 can be taken out. If not, will start to look to the short side of the market. Aggressive buy is 116-009/13. Fall back buy is 11531/116-03. OK to sell failure to take out and hold 116-20/28 w/an exit, if 116-00/04 holds as support.