A heads up for gold and silver bulls: Originally posted Feb 16, 2011 http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com âWhen DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect: UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like COPPER etc, CRUDE OILâ
You also posted this call in August 2010. Go ahead post the prices of all those items at that time, and where they are now. Let's see how your trade call performed over 17 months. You always avoid this topic, and pretend you didn't issue the call in August 2010. However, I found it on your blog and posted it on here several times. Again, you ignored all such posts, even had the audacity to claim I was making it up.
Lol yea it was real easy to see the second peak at 1373 in the S&P was clearly divergent on the MACD and RSI. MACD AND RSI both made lower highs on that new high in the market. And supercycle great idiot call in AUG 2010 when technically the market broke up and continued to run on the back of QE2 If you were short you were the worst trader ever and got ur A$$ handed to you. FOLLOW THE PRICE ACTION. If its really bearish then GET SHORT when the market tells you to.
GrandSupercycle 2011: 'Reminder that SP500 monthly chart continues to give bearish warnings and USDX monthly chart continues to give bullish warnings. This big picture outlook will not change.' All trades posted at blog (winners and losers) http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Nine_Ender Please provide evidence to substantiate your claim that analysis enclosed below was originally posted on my blog in August 2010. And you clearly don't understand that - it was then and remains now - general analysis and does not refer to any particular date. It is actually a reference to global asset deflation. You constantly confuse analysis with actual trades. You do realise there is a difference don't you ? I only post trades on my blog Originally posted Feb 16, 2011 âWhen DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect: UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like COPPER etc, CRUDE OILâ
I only believe in price physics, pairs trading, and statistical arbitrage. Double head and shoulders patterns and head and shoulders patterns themserlves only predict falls because the last leg is always a lower hi, but where that stops is that people assume that they had to identify a left shoulder followed by a 1st and 2nd right shoulder when it is by price physics that that pattern will predict moves down. The resistance ranges are set by markets, not patterns, and there is no case wherein price physics doesn't work out on the second lower high because if you're saying second head and shoulders patterns are faith based, it's that the market is signaling a top is in, but don't call it a head and shoulders or double head and shoulders, call it what it is, which is a lower high. There are ways to define these quantitatively without the typical technical analysis garbage that is those patterns. Some ones I have seen lately including "rising wedge", symetrical triangle (also a form of rising wedge), and an sma where concavity is greater than 0 and a bottom is in place. These don't work well enough to tell you when to put on the trade, but price physics does. Pairs Trading does, but statistical arbitrage is just that, a daily occurrence where you can bet the direction of the market if it is projected that way large enough. If you try to code any of those technical analysis patterns, you'll find they don't work. Double head and shoulders work better than single head and shoulders because you have two confirmations of lower highs whereas a single head and shoulders only has one that could be after a breach from a higher low that when you are sure of your first shoulder pattern you put the trade on just to watch it rise, even though usually waiting for such patterns is typically what leads to trader underperformance.
Frankly, I don't have a lot of faith in these patterns either, but as I am learning, knowing these patterns is a part of the process. Now, you keep using the phrase, "price physics". I do have a general idea what this means, but would like to spend considerable time reading more. The web is overwhelmed with garbage and misdirection. Can you point me to good reading material on this subject? Please, assume that I have all the required math/statistics background. I was about to invest a bunch of time learning FXCM's Strategy Trader since I am working with their platform. It uses C# as its developing language (already know the language). What did you use to code and automate your strategy? Thanks for the help.
I am not confused, you clearly are. I have been extremely clear all along. I posted a direct quote from your blog word for word from August 2010. I reposted it at least twice. Each time you ignored your own words, and others noted this fact not just myself. There is no point in reposting this a fourth or fifth time and see you yet again pretend its not real.