it aint that crazy, and it certainly isn't that amateurish. Betting that everything will probably be normal is very sophisticated. Almost nobody can do it.
this thread is hilarious......do you REALLY think the markets will crash during an election season?! good lord use some common sense here. The central banks will do whatever they must to keep markets propped up until they cant, and currently they still propping them up. I really feel for investors and traders who just dont understand the feds MO....
Once again, bhardy, you don't understand what my system's doing. Being down 2% on the index is a common occurence if you have a mechanical system. The potential profitability of the trade exceeds 5%, but if we rise another 0.1-0.2% on NDX then I will try to get out at my entry price by my reverse break even stop. Price Physics says this is a lower high on NQ, but where that will stop we'll just have to wait for confirming price action but it will go down a little from this level and I'd prefer it to start going down Monday so we'd still have a chance at a profit, but, the way it looks now, we'll be out breakeven or the dreaded stop loss level at 2396 but I doubt it will get that high.
86 of 101 trades make 0% or better. 13% of those trades are breakeven and are included in that 0%, making a probability of loss 15%, which is not statistically different from the break even probability. Can you say unlikely to lose? Last month's trades were high probability because all 3 of my systems said short. This month only my pairs system says to be short, and we have no signals after the first bar of 2012 in the others.
Brilliant market analysis. So simple, yet very much to the point. No need to be sidetracked with details when you are right and know you are right. Magellan
Losers average 3.22% on the index, and winners average 2%. Here's the percentages for the 1x equivalent from a 2x on QID and QLD converted to NDX returns. Win Percentage Loss Percentage Max7.65% -0.67% Min-0.01% -4.30% Average 2.03% -3.22% Win Percentage Loss Percentage 2.03% 0.69% 5.36% 0.95% -1.98% 0.61% 2.79% 3.21% -0.67% -0.01% 0.94% 1.04% 0.57% 4.47% 0.58% 0.67% 1.72% 5.00% 0.19% -0.01% -3.57% 2.12% 7.65% 0.89% 1.93% 0.59% 0.87% 0.13% 7.65% 1.74% -0.01% -0.01% 2.06% 0.85% 0.68% 0.42% -0.01% -3.57% -4.30% 2.49% -3.57% 7.65% 2.97% 3.42% -0.01% 7.65% 0.83% 0.26% 0.44% 6.08% 1.21% -3.57% 3.21% 1.82% 7.65% -3.56% 1.88% 0.00% 0.00% 1.06% 5.71% 0.38% 5.10% 1.21% -3.97% -3.56% 0.47% 5.91% 0.74% -1.74% 0.00% 0.65% -3.56% -3.56% 0.58% 0.44% -3.56% 2.43% 0.79% 2.72% 4.41% 4.92% 1.68% -3.56% 4.42% 1.94% 0.00% 0.58% 0.66% 1.05% 1.46% 3.41% 3.26% 0.00% 6.24% 0.53% 1.55% 0.49% 0.90% 0.89% 1.35% -1.77%