The next Black Swan is getting close now. See extremely bearish S&P500 chart stickied at blog. stockmarket618.wordpress.com
The black swan would be a rally. Like after the second greek bailout, when goldman had to cart out a local down $200m who was long vol as it collapsed as quickly as it had ever done.
No worries, you've predicted it at least 20 times already and been wrong the first 19 times. Funny how you get almost rabid in excitement when we hit the 1260 area again. Let me remind you. Last time we were 1260 you said right down to 1220, with an immediate break to 1150. What actually happened ? We went up to 1350. Keep rolling out the prediction, you're bound to be right sometime in the next 5 years. Unless of course, the correction occus at 1500.
+1... yes Black Swans are unpredictable... We've never seen them before. They are more than extreme events. If anything a low probability (tail-risk, bell-curve defying) move seems to be expected with all this debt, GDP #s, bs. Surprised the VIX is only around 25. It was at 80 in 2009.
Some trolls are just beyond help and will never get it... USDSEK long 6.3713 [C 6.4168] USDCAD long 0.9583 [C 0.9609] AUDUSD short 1.0899 [C 1.0731]