Anyone can make top and bottom calls. A good call is when I take my loss and return to fight another day with complete equanimity. A bad call is when I refuse to take the loss. JMO
Whoah...calm down... I think you have to take a step back here and look at things for what they are. Let me explain a little... Here is me, some ole retiree just sitting here on my laptop enjoying the good weather and typing in a thread of how I believe now is the turning point in the market. I am just expressing my opinion and everyone is welcome to respond back to discuss. I never represented anything as a factual statement, but only my opinion based on the data I looked at. I also never represented that I was anything other then a retired guy with no formal education or "professional" experience as many guys do here on this board all the time. Its just me, Joe Friday typing along on an internet message board expressing an opinion. Now here is you...you come out accusing me of all kinds of different things and imply that I am trying to gain "credibility". You even throw in some personal insults to try to get me to say something rash...maybe even fight back a little, but I recognize your game and am above that. I have nothing to sell to you and my business is not on this board, so I am not trying to gain any "credibility". All I did was express my opinion, backed up by various charts and data, and then looking to discuss it. If my opinion is not valid, then it wouldnt be the first time. Im not looking for confirmation or validation. Im not looking to gain "credibility". Im not representing myself as a perfect market caller or a professional...so I dont see where the problem lies...
This is what I am seeing. I didnt include the large cap indexes in there like the SPX or OEX because those have fallen through all lines of support...or at least I think they did. This is what is unusual to me. The small caps usually are the first to dump down, but the large caps are the ones being most effected. I think part of it is caused by the oil spill...CVX and XOM are two main components of the SPX. I think part of it is due to the emerging markets....large caps have big exposure to them. Another part I think is just seasonality as this seems to happen all the time. The question is the oil spill and Europe made out to be more then what it is? My expectation is for the pivot to be right around this point, but its getting pretty close and one news event might make this fall of a cliff. I am going to choose the more positive side though and believe that the pivot is at this point in time. Liquidity is still there as the small caps are trading more strongly then their larger components... Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Now I am not going to tell a perfectly grown man that he owes me an apology for saying my call was "wrong" when it was just 3 days too early. If I told someone they were "wrong" and then a day or so later the market popped, then I would man-up and apologize. Apologizing is all part of being an adult and a man. Sitting there silent and letting the thread float lower while no apology is put foward is about being a coward in my book. That is all I will say about that. Well, I started this thread on Friday May 21st and now its Weds May 26th. On the ES (and those 3x etfs that supposedly came crashing down), we are not lower then when I made the first call on Friday about 5 days ago or 2 trading sessions ago. I heard that Dr. Doom/Gloom or whatever you call him said that we will not make a new high. You see, this is the most obvious trade that we will pop up and do a "head and shoulders" and then reverse into the abyss. I feel we will make another high with a target of 1300 and I will put that target by August or 3 months from now. At that point, I feel we will make the turn and have a sharp correction. By November, I think we will be at around the same place we are now. In regards to the "credibility" factor. I seek none of that as I am not selling anything. I have no idea where "credibility" came up. I have a total of 8 PMs in my inbox and none are related to commercial solicitation while there are 2 asking me why the mods are such dicks. My reply to those PMs was thats just how it is. You cant fight city hall. People think what they want to think no matter how obviously flawed that thinking might be... So here is my new updated chart. Notice how I slanted the trendline which seems to make sense. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
You're lucky this isn't being moved to chit chat with the rest of the trash. You think you're correct here, but in touting that you are, you only show the rest of us how ignorant you are of markets. You cannot call "victory" on a bottom call at this point just because you get an up move (which is nothing more than a bounce at this time). Additionally, top or bottom pickers are foolish by nature, since there is no bell ringing going on at either, and both are likely to lose much while they try it. Lastly, and I cannot believe I have to state this once again, but you're obviously having problems comprehending it, if traders were foolish enough to do what you said in your OP - "go all in on those 3x ETFs" they could have been wiped out. So your arrogance is not only disconcerting, it makes you look like an ass to people who are far wiser than you in the market. Especially since TGregg's link to your "I'm a newbie" thread was so "long" ago. So why don't you change your tone to more of a "what do you guys think?" and try to solicit advice. I'm sure the responses would be more to your liking, although a new username might be on the cards since you've tainted this one.
You talked about "credibility" and now you are saying things that are simply not true. I was scratching my head when you said going "all in" on 3x etfs. I never said to go "all in" on the 3x etfs...I only said to get long the 3x etfs. Getting long in my world does not mean going "all in". If thats what you think it means, then honestly, you should not have access to a trading account. There are many ways to get into a position but going "all in" is not one of them in my book. Wouldnt you agree that as a "moderator" you have to set the example for other posters? If you want to set the example then my advice to you is not to get so emotionally charged and involved attacking people you dont know and accusing them of things they didnt say. I am going to call you out on this one and say that you are the one trying to throw this thread off. You are trolling and hijacking the thread. No where in this thread did I start openly attacking you like you did me. As I said, I am just posting my personal opinion about market direction and have represented myself as accurately as I could. I would greatly appreciate it if you would stop with the personal attacks, threats and lies in this thread and to keep it on topic. Thanks.
You are correct, you did not say "all in". As for the rest of your ranting, your credibility on this forum is already shot. I'll let onlookers decide for themselves. Fact is, you called the "bottom" at 1086 and change. It proceeded to go some 40 points lower from that post. And now you want credit for "being early". You sound a lot like Rowshan or Port. Hmmm...now that I think about it, you ARE using one of the same proxies. Interesting.
Ok Im back. Took a little break these last 4-5 days (Memorial Day weekend) and I am comitted to keeping this thread on topic. I dont know. It may be my personality that is throwing some people off, but I never worked at a Fortune 500 company. My background is in construction and oil drilling so I never had to present and the people I worked with were a lit bit of a rougher crowd who didnt care too much about "semantics". Their feelings never got hurt that easy. Looking how things are setup now I kind of wish I said to go "all in" on those 3x etfs. I have studied the 3x etfs very intently and know when decay becomes an issue. I dont think the decay becomes an issue at these short time lengths. You also have acceleration of price under some circumstances. I also think, due to how a futures account is setup vs. an equity account, trading the BGU is a better deal then in a futures account with the ES. There were some wild 50 point surges and dumps on the ES these last 5 trading days. I think many a trader got whipsawed out. My BGU position was underwater for a day or so, but I was able to survive through the whipsaw. I know the ES trader would not have survived through such a hold. This is what I am thinking right now. The top has that sideways action that reeks of distribution where as the bottom looks like accumulation. I am going to stand by my opinion that we hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 1300 by August. I see and acknowledge that multi-month pattern on the chart might be the head and shoulders, but my opinion is that its too obvious. I dont think the problems with Europe will be over any time soon. I think NBG, AIB and NBG are good proxies for the situation. You have elections around the corner in the United States and Obama's popularity is still strong enough to hold a majority in the house and senate. So you are going to have a lot of uncertainty and certainly there will be a lot of geo-political turmoil around October (October surprise). That guy who setup the bomb in Times Square was a dress rehearsal for the real thing. A few propane tanks and a fake detonator? I think they were just testing things out to see how the US was going to respond or it might have been a decoy to throw authorities off. So I think it will go somewhere to the neighborhood of 1300 and then the reality of geo-politics and economy will set in at the end of the summer. Right around October we are going to get that surprise. You have North Korea, Iran, the Al Qaeda...I think this years surprise is going to be big. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Here is the macro picture that I was talking about in the above post. You can just telegraph in your mind that a head and shoulders is forming. However, if you look at the IWC and IWM...the $SML or $MID...the picture looks substantially different. Small caps seem very strong like they have another big surge ahead. Uploaded with ImageShack.us