retaildaytrader, Thank you for the insight. However, nothing you posted indicates anything even in the same solar system as a move to 1300. All it does is rightfully argue for a bounce. I could argue for a bounce without all those charts. Additionally an indicator that goes "all the way back to 1998" isn't all that impressive.
Tgregg, You are implying that I have somehow fooled or lied to you about my background. I have never misrepresented myself on here and have always stated Im just some old retired guy with little education and a background in the construction/oil industry. I know a lot of guys come on here claiming this and that, but the fact is that I am a just a bald overweight fool enjoying my margarita and making my trades the same way most do on here. I am not ashamed of admitting my past work history. In fact, I enjoyed the physical rigors of the vocation that I chose and there is a lot of money in it for those who want to do it. Today, a entry-level roustabout job for someone in their early 20s will make them 50-70k...its tough dangerous work, but its more then what the average college grad would make...you can make rig manager by the time you are 30 if you stick with it and easily make a six figure salary...
My opinion is that we push up until say August and then there will be major pullback. I just said 1300 as an estimation. I believe it will push up past the last high in April and then to whatever number is a guess. Fundamentally speaking, the governments of the world have witnessed the violence in Greece and Thailand. They only have one choice but to print money. This will put pressure on the dollar. Oil price will go up. I was thinking Gold would go up, but the price action today leaves me unconvinced. The governments will continue to do what they do with money printing and putting in liquidity or else there might be violence in the streets. Elections are around the corner so the politicos will do whatever they can to make things go up. Im not blind though. I checked the Fed Fred website and the jobs situation is not improving. The economy is not improving...therefore, I think there will be a pullback which will be based on the real economy and the uncertainty of the November elections. I honestly think if they changed the date of the elections to say June then that would really throw off the markets internal timing. We usually see these turning points around key elections. This next move up will be a fool's rally followed by a big pullback into the elections. After the elections, I tend to think it will be like 1994 when the Republicans took over. The Republicans favor less taxes and less regulation and I feel that would really pump up the business climate and market as a whole. The market never went up under heavier taxes and regulation...
My question is are you sure you are interpreting the oscillator correctly? The way I would read something like that tells a completely different story. Maybe a short term retracement but what does that much of an extreme tell you? I feel more compelled than ever that we aren't going to take out the April high.
That is a possibility. In late 2001 and late 2008 there were both extremes. These points in time represented great short term trading opportunities lasting for about 2 months, but then there was another low. The most logical level to watch, in my opinion, is 1150. If it cant get past 1150, then it wont make it much higher. It would then look like a big head and shoulders on the $SPX. Its oddly starting to look like last year, but on a grander scale. Remember the h&s?
I found some interesting things reading around the web...these are not my charts or video so I wont take credit for them, but on a popular blog that I read on a weekly basis. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Mark Hulbert states that newsletter editors have capitulated. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1499619525&play=1
The market is going a little bit lower then I thought, but I think this thread is still good so long as the ES can hold its current point and not break below the February lows. I think the economy is in even worse shape now, especially the Main Street world, then it was back in March of last year, but I think we should see a bump. If it breaks then I dont know how low it will go exactly.
retail: I think you're incorrect. The DOW looks to be going much lower (8831 and then maybe 7100). The S&P looks like it'll go down to around 910, then maybe 850. I estimate at least a 1-5 months before we hit those lows.