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Excellent thread, the recaps are clear and logical + interesting. Btw, on 4/16 just before the inverse H&S there was a regular H&S which you didn't take for some reason, it tested the neckline again after some minutes.
Killingtheta: I agree with indextrader7 on what/how to choose for tick size. Most traders that I've talked to chalk it up to their own personality and how they intend to trade their own system. When I switched to futures 5 years ago, I knew that I wanted to use tick charts because futures moves seemed to be quite a bit shorter than stock moves. But, I didn't know what size to use and it took me almost a year to settle on different tick sizes for each of the futures symbols that I trade. I now just review the tick sizes a couple of times per year and only make small changes. For example: I am a very visual person and trade what I see on the chart. I like to see the actual setup form without having to analyze a lot of data. The problem that I had to solve was a two edged sword. If I used too large of tick size, then I missed a lot of setups and had to analyze what happened inside the large bars. If I used too small of tick size, then I saw too many setups and many of them were false and failed. In addition, I have limited room on my monitors and didn't want to display/use longer term charts for additional trading information. Other traders that I know use 15min to 60min charts and they trade by analyzing candle stick charts and it works for them. I just want to trade what I see on the chart. Indextrader7.... today was a rough trading day with lots of false moves. Very few trades with half losers/half winners. A great thread. toucan
Yes, there was a good looking inverse H&S there, it appears about 1:24 into the video. The thing is that since it was such an uptrend, I wasn't really looking for trades from the short side. I try to be patient and wait for the trades that make sense with the trend/bias. I'm not always so patient though!! Good find though. A solid pattern.
Completely agree about finding the right timeframe. Too short and you get too many false signals/noise. What do you use for TF?
Done trading for the day. Really focused on trading short term swings on my lowest timeframe today (50 tick). Took 18 trades in an hour, which is very busy for me. I'm kind of at that point in trading where I have a couple different ways I can trade profitably, and I'm trying to figure out what I enjoy the most, what works best, and what is applicable to different market environments. Win % = 10/18 = 56% Avg win = 7 ticks. Avg loss= 4.75 ticks. Win:loss = 1.5 <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/dJ0sHYDL1x4?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Here's some stats I keep up with to measure efficiency of my trading. It's a slightly different take on the old MAE/MFE concept combined with the trade efficiency concept. I've never seen them charted like this elsewhere. TOP LEFT CHART - TOTAL EFFICIENCY Tells me, from the time I entered the trade until the time I exited the trade, how many ticks I took from the market vs how many total ticks were available. Total available ticks would include ticks against my position, as well as ticks the market went in my favor beyond where I took profits. TOP RIGHT CHART - ENTRY & EXIT EFFICIENCY This breaks down the top left chart from total efficiency into it's component parts: 1) Entry efficiency = The difference in (entry price) and (max adverse excursion price). So it gives a representation (in ticks) how efficient my entry was. How much better could it have been? 2) Exit efficiency = The difference in (exit price) and (max favorable excursion price). So this tells me, ok you exited here, but how much better could your exit have been? BOTTOM LEFT CHART - MAE, MFE, & AVG P/L OVER TIME Each point plotted shows - ok for the last 10 trades you took, what was the farthest the market went in your favor (in ticks), what was the farthest it went against you (in ticks), and how many ticks did you average P/L for those 10 trades. BOTTOM RIGHT CHART - MAE, MFE, P/L FOR LAST 10 TRADES Each line represents a single trade. At the far left it shows how far that trade went against me (MAE), follow that line up to see how far it went in my favor (MFE), and then follow that same line to see where I closed out that trade within that range of MAE, AND MFE.
Made a couple live trades today. I'd received a couple requests to do so. Here you go: Screenr - indextrader7: live trade Got caught in a early trendline break, and added to the position at the 250 tick support level. Managed the first position to +1, and the 2nd to +15 ticks. Screenr - indextrader7: trades Short a trendline break at the top of the range. Didn't work out immediately (result -5 ticks), so waited a bit.... Re-entered short on signs of downside movement again, and it didn't work out either. (-6 ticks) Screenr - indextrader7: finally a nice win Finally a nice winner. A gift of a trade. I was long 4 contracts when I started the video (from the most recent blue dot). Tightened stop, then took 1/2 off at previous resistance, then it just kept running and running and I manually moved my stop up with price action until stopped. 1st half off at +17 ticks 2nd half off at +39 ticks