You would need sovereign adoption but that is difficult as the vols are too high. Even a hint of it would drive it to $500K in a week. Adoption is self-defeating as it would become too volatile to manage in a central banking role. I can cite Dec FOP vols here. They are 56% annualized (election backwardation vs fronts). Typical FX vols are in the single digits and countries still blow out their reserves. You're a good dude but you're making the typical HODLer arguments. If I am wrong and we see $1MM in a decade then I won't be here as well (pills, bridge, etc.)
I like how after jumping on the FUD bandwagon, you actually state what could be a likely scenario on the horizon. The fact of the matter is, most people cannot do what you do by trading volatility, but must of us can HODL Bitcoin. In fact, there are likely people out there with more money who got into the crypto game early than there are traders like you. I also think very strongly that the only reasons why TradFi went to the moon, of which you have benefited greatly, its because of this whole Central Bank ponzi scheme. There would be no Billionaires and trillionaire companies or multimillion dollar houses if money printing didn't exist. And I will say it again... we are at the end game. Running $2T deficits, and having hardly any growth to show for it, and interest payments eating up almost 1/3 of tax receipts is the end stage. There is no way to fix this without a massive bomb going off somewhere. The likely scenario is a fast drop in rates, which we have already tried many times, and all it did was make the rich richer. At some point, the world stands up to this, and the best way will be with buying bitcoin. You literally laid out the playbook in your comment above but you ascribe hardly any probability to it. You must be in the camp that they can keep kicking the can down the road... so for how long. Another year? Maybe 2? Don't tell me that you see things still functioning fine in 5 years without major structural changes.
Dumbsht. I sold BTC and funded an eq-vol account that earned $11MM ($9MM + added stake) over two years.
And how long will this go on for? I think its clear now that major cracks are appearing, and nobody knows what to do about it.
Oh, he's the best. Just do a search under his name for "have fun staying poor" and you'll see sunshine and rainbows.