Tether collapse journal

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by Pekelo, May 15, 2022.

  1. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    more like 80-90 percent in commercial paper according to themselves. They disclosed it after NY AG law suit.
     
    #21     May 15, 2022
  2. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    (see the following post for more details, it looks like this is the shorting/lending to short APR, not Bitfinex's rate for deposits)

    It is from Paolo himself:

    https://preview.redd.it/dp04rjtg7iz...bp&s=556ca9754c263511490a76c4ed6ebc96043341da

    Also:

     
    Last edited: May 15, 2022
    #22     May 15, 2022
  3. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    It gets a little complicated. I am quoting from different redditors:

    "Bitfinex has an open market allowing crypto to be loaned between its users. That loan can either be used to buy more crypto, or sold to profit on a crypto going down in price. The open market allows the rate to borrow to be set based on supply and demand.

    A month ago, you could borrow Tethers for a rate of 6% per year, much more supply than demand. Now, that rate is closer to 30% as more people bet on Tether following in UST's footsteps. "

    Response:

    "That would mean that this tweet, sadly, is not the disaster that everyone is assuming it is. The 30% isn't something that's being paid by Tether that needs to print in order to get it to you, it's just the borrow cost of the short seller."

    Explanation:

    "One side’s APR is another’s APY since it’s P2P, so it encourages people to lend it out instead of cashing it out. It’s not bitfinex literally offering 35% to deposit your USD, but from the depositor’s standpoint it may as well be."

    Thread:

    old.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/upmgsw/30_interest_if_you_dont_withdraw_your_money_from/
     
    #23     May 15, 2022
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    You're correct, it's too much demand and not enough supply of Tether USDT

    Can't really have a bank run on Tether USDT when most of it is stored in wallets that cannot redeem for USD

    I've posted this several times, but in case you're interested, you can read the whole Twitter thread

    This has been going on for many years

    Personally, I would not be afraid to hold a lot of Tether USDT, but it's NFA

     
    #24     May 15, 2022
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    I did, observations:

    1. It is a year old so what was true then, not always true now.
    2. It correctly said tether never gets redeemed. But we just had 7 B redemption, so something is clearly up.
    3. I don't get how can anyone trade it as pairs if not on exchanges?
    4. Profile picture has laser eyes.

    The tweet doesn't mention but if the loaning APR went up from 6% to 30% on Bitfinex, that means they want people to keep their tether there instead of cashing out. They are also making shorting tether expensive.
     
    #25     May 16, 2022
    PoundTheRock and johnarb like this.
  6. #26     May 16, 2022
  7. nitrene

    nitrene

    Those tweets from Bianco are interesting because on CNBC he is usually permabear on stocks but he seems to be bullish on ETH which seems odd to me.

    His claim that the price can't come down because only 3% is tradeable is nonsense. I guess he never took Economics in college -- prices are determined by the marginal trade and if the 3% panic sell the price will collapse.

    Bottom line is what happens if Tether actually collapses? Will it trigger a cascade of selling the major cryptos like BTC & ETH?
     
    #27     May 16, 2022
  8. In this pdf JP Morgan analyse the impact of covid and Tether on Bitcoin, I believe it would apply to ETH as well.
    If you search for the keyword "Tether" you will find text like:

    upload_2022-5-16_13-46-37.png
     
    #28     May 16, 2022
    nitrene likes this.
  9. nitrene

    nitrene

    That was interesting read but since BTC existed before Tether it probably won't completely collapse but yeah 50-60% is quite a potential drop.
     
    #29     May 16, 2022
  10. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    exactly. BTC existed before USDT, but market cap was tiny. It took fake money, aka stable coins, to create 1 trillion market cap. Let’s see what the real value is without fake money
     
    #30     May 16, 2022
    guest_trader_1 and Pekelo like this.