Testing a new strategy

Discussion in 'Journals' started by ddav, Nov 24, 2010.

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  1. ddav

    ddav

    Web....., thank you for your interest in the strategy that I have been presenting that has been getting 500 AROR plus or minus a few hundred % net as you so kindly reposted. I am also glad that you are taking to showing all your crystal clear understanding of the strategy. For a minute there I was beginning to think that I was actually talking over the heads of............. And for that I do apologize.
    Your first fact seams on the surface to be an axiom. What is there to debate. The strategy does produce 500% plus or minus a few hundred percent in my testing period as posted. I guess we are agreeing on that. Thank you. Maybe one has actually read all my posts and understands them so far. Now you have said a lot and I probably should back up a bit to start and say that I am not exactly agreeing with your first posted statement. I am, with no honest attempt, talking to avoid discussing anything obvious. I also was not trying to hype anything. If you actually read my posts, you might be amazed to see that I started with a simple question. Yes, that evolved, because I was not getting my question answered by anyone that I felt was knowledgeable. I posted objective Trade station results, real time pictures of the signals with explanations and, if you look actual trading results by day at the beginning of this post. At least in my reading of the posts, I was not trying to avoid the obvious and actual real-time posts of live screens seemed not at all associated with hype. Maybe you have a better crystal clear picture of all my posts than I do. I wonder, I truly do.
    Now 774.10. Yes, I do recall possibly posting such a signal with perhaps an explanation. What I was trying to show is that the strategy does not magically erase any signals, and I think that is what it shows. I also did state I think that I could not see any experienced and knowledgeable trader ever loosing money on that trade and I will add, because I haven't managed to do that and I am not as experienced and as knowledgeable as some on this forum. That picture of that real time signal was I think from a 15 minute bar chart. Yes, even a novice trader as myself can and does read other charts of the strategy that show take profit and reversing signals. That said, I still do not think that any experienced and knowledgeable trader could have ever lost money on that trade, even without reading the reversing signal. Furthermore, it is not a system. It is a strategy. Sorry that using the strategy in the last month has resulted in zero losses for me. Must be lucky or something. I wonder, I truly do.
    Yes, I think you are on to something. "Some traders have mistaken you to have said the strategy trade signals have been perfect" I think you are on to something. In fact, if you do read my posts, I might have actually said the opposite. They are actually issued by code from a computer and are all computers perfect? If you actually do get around to reading all my posts, you might actually see a post of weekly profit results that are actually without a single loosing week. Amazing what you can read on some posts.
    I call my management rules reasonable in that they have given me no losses in this 1 month testing period. I will not call them the best, but when you are trading off the best strategy, they apparently do not have to be. In any case I thank you for your interest. Good day for now.
     
    #201     Dec 26, 2010
  2. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    Here's a few questions for you...

    You willing to disclose your "reasonable trade management rules" that allows you to have ZERO LOSSES while the developer does have losses ???

    I can't imagine why this would be a problem considering your trade management rules are obviously different in comparison to the developer's trade management rules. Therefore, you should not be violating any copyright/disclosure agreements you have with the developer considering it seems that you're using different trade management rules...

    Your trade management rules results in unverified 100% winners of real money trading. In contrast, the developer's trade management rules results in +69% winners without stops. Therefore, is it possible for you to produce a tradestation report of your personal trading that has resulted in ZERO LOSSES even if you've been using a some of your own trading concepts merged with the developer's trading system. ???

    My point is that you could have only taken 3 actual trades and be winners that allows you to say truthfully that you've had NO LOSSES. Yet, in reality, it's very misleading considering the developer tradestation reports shows 111 trade signals. That's why I asked if you can post a tradestation report of your actual trading to compare to the developer's tradestation report to help shed a little light on the merits of the strategy (system) and actual realistic application.

    Simulator Results versus Real Trading Results

    You've done one tradestation report and it shouldn't be a problem to do another for your personal real trading (application) of the developer's trade signals.

    Like I stated before, I don't need to see real-time trade signals to determine the merits of a trade method.

    P.S. Everybody uses a stop. It could be a hard stop, mental stop, time stop, profit stop, position reverse stop, money management stop, broker margin call stop et cetera. Thus, the developer is using a stop because you need to use something to tell you that the trade has completed.

    P.S.S. Any day trader of the Russell 2000 Emini TF in a short position without a stop would have exited that short position for a LOSS (small or big) during that volatility spike from 774.10 to 776.30

    Only a trader that's not day trader would have sat on his/her hands and did nothing during that volatility spike while waiting for it to reverse back down from 776.30 into a profit below 774.10.

    Mark
     
    #202     Dec 26, 2010
  3. As I recall, the moderators suggested ddav start a journal b/c of the nature of what he was posting originally didn't fit the category he was posting in. I've read many other journals on this site and not a single one of them have the same level of evasiveness and excuse-making on the part of the author. I can understand giving the benefit of the doubt to ddav for a while, but hasn't the experiment run on long enough? This is not a "journal" in any sense of the word you could apply the definition of journal to on this site.

    If I were of a conspiratorial bent, I would almost believe that ddav is a mole from a competitor site, sent here to make ET look bad. Which he is achieving every day this monstrosity stays open.
     
    #203     Dec 26, 2010
  4. ddav

    ddav

    Log......., if you would be so kind to read my posts, you just might see that the one titled "Christmas Story" was written, yes, it was written especially for you. You are welcome.
     
    #204     Dec 27, 2010
  5. ddav

    ddav

    [​IMG] It has come to my attention that some of you have actually not read my posts. For review see picture here. This is actually from one of my previous posts. What do you think it is saying? Is this a picture of a strategy loosing money? No, I do not think so. Is it of a strategy that is making greater than 500% net Annual Rate of Return on that day? May be. Lets look closely. What do I see. Yes, I do see. It is making money. And what do I see at the very bottom of this picture? Why actually a positive stop. Yes, a positive stop, I do see. Could that mean that it is impossible for me to loose money on this trade? I wonder, I truly do. Now could this actually mean that I have not lost even as much as a single tick over the course of this test period? Lets see. Yes, I see. I see. Yes I actually see. It is just amazing what one can see if one actually reads all my posts.
    Yes, a strategy that gets 500% AROR plus or minus a few hundred percent and right before your eyes. Just look. Read my posts. All of them to see, You will be amazed at that which is to be seen.
     
    #205     Dec 27, 2010
  6. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    It's come to my attention you're still avoiding questions posted by those reading this thread.

    Here's a few questions for you...

    You willing to disclose your "reasonable trade management rules" that allows you to have ZERO LOSSES while the developer does have losses ???

    I can't imagine why this would be a problem considering your trade management rules are obviously different in comparison to the developer's trade management rules. Therefore, you should not be violating any copyright/disclosure agreements you have with the developer considering it seems that you're using different trade management rules...

    Your trade management rules results in unverified 100% winners of real money trading. In contrast, the developer's trade management rules results in +69% winners without stops. Therefore, is it possible for you to produce a tradestation report of your personal trading that has resulted in ZERO LOSSES even if you've been using your own trading concepts merged with the developer's trading system. ???

    My point is that you could have only taken 3 actual trades and be winners that allows you to say truthfully that you've had NO LOSSES. Yet, in reality, it's very misleading considering the developer tradestation reports shows 111 trade signals. That's why I asked if you can post a tradestation report of your actual trading to compare to the developer's tradestation report to help shed a little light on the merits of the strategy (system) and actual realistic application.

    Simulator Results versus Real Trading Results

    Besides, you've done one tradestation report of the developer method having about 69% winners and about 31% losers (as shown in my prior image attachment). Thus, it shouldn't be a problem to do another tradestation report of your personal real trading (application) of the developer's trade signals.

    This will help to identify other variables that have an impact on the different results such as your own personal discretionary trading style that gets into objective or subjective "reasonable trade management rules".

    Like I stated before, I don't need to see real-time trade signals to determine the merits of a trade method although you did post one real-time trade in response to someone else. That trade was a loss as you noted such would have been recorded as such in the tradestation report for the developer's trade signals.

    P.S. Everybody uses a stop. It could be a hard stop, mental stop, time stop, profit stop, position reverse stop, money management stop, broker margin call stop et cetera. Thus, the developer is using a stop because you need to use something to tell you that the trade has completed.

    P.S.S. Any veteran and knowledgeable day trader of the Russell 2000 Emini TF futures in a short position without a hard stop would have exited that short position for a LOSS (small or big) during that volatility spike from 774.10 to 776.30 via a different type of stop (reference my prior replies about such).

    Only a trader that's not day trader would have sat on his/her hands and did nothing during that volatility spike while waiting for it to reverse back down from 776.30 into a profit below 774.10.

    Mark
     
    #206     Dec 27, 2010
  7. ddav

    ddav

    [​IMG] Now you might be thinking, just a fluke on a day, so lets look at another. What do I see. Why yes, I see. I see. I see.
     
    #207     Dec 27, 2010
  8. ddav

    ddav

    [​IMG] Lets look at another post. And yes, these are all posted. What do I see? Why a red arrow pointing down and a yellow arrow pointing to the left. What is the strategy telling me??? Lets all listen very closely to hear. The market is signaling that it has ceased its upward thrust at exactly the tick I am pointing to and it is now time to sell at this tick or better. Yes, wake up. Sell, sell, sell. Sell everything you have and do it now. Then what is it telling me??? Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. All the way down. Now lets see if I spelt that correct. Yes, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee is spelt correct. Yes, it is spelt correct.Where will it go? I do not know. Lets see. Yes, I see. I see.
     
    #208     Dec 27, 2010
  9. ddav

    ddav

    [​IMG] Lets look at another post. 5 lines are drawn by the strategy. The lowest line is the take profit line. Right below that appears as the candle is forming a signal. What could it be telling me??? Buy, wake up, buy. Buy all now or better, because the market has changed direction at the tick I am pointing to and is preparing to thrust up. To where??? I do not know, but look at the 5 lines drawn by the strategy. What do they say??? Good signal. Go all the way. All to the tick. Just look.
     
    #209     Dec 27, 2010
  10. ddav

    ddav

    [​IMG] Lets look at another post. 5 lines are drawn by the strategy. The lowest line is the take profit line from the signal above. I take the signal and immediately place my stop profit order above it. Then what is the strategy telling me. O dear the signal is failing to the tick, look as I close below the double yellow line. Sell, sell all that you have and do it now, because the market has changed direction at exactly the tick that I have closed. Yes, I did hear it say exactly that I think.
     
    #210     Dec 27, 2010
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