ddav.. It seems that there are a lot of questions as to your motives with this journal. Can you please straighten this out... Your next post will be a very important one. By the way thank you for this journal and your contribution and I hope you understand that for you to continue you need to reiterate and straighten out your motive....or make us understand what it is, again.. Please state that you are not selling anything and you do not manage other peoples money. Respectfully, ES
No worries. You're a nice guy who's struggled (like the rest of us, painfully) in the past. Just don't want good people like you to go down the wrong path of endless hope and disappointment.
ddav, I've been trading the TF for 7 years now. It's been my experience that the odds are super low that a 2:1 RR ratio can be maintained over the longer term as the winning pct. approaches 65%+. This is including all trades (i.e., b/e + 1 tick trades do count because risk was taken). The markets appear to follow some general probability rules. There is an inverse relationship between winning pct. and payoff ratio (avg win / avg loss): 1. The higher your winning pct, the lower your payoff ratio is more likely to be. 2. The lower your winning pct, the higher your payoff ratio is more likely to be. So, for example, if someone told me that they can frequently day trade (5+ trades per day) the TF and produce a long-term (500+) avg. winning pct. of 70%+ (all trades), making a $200 avg win with a $100 avg loss (incl. trans fees), Occam's Razor tells me that that person is not telling the truth. If a day trader tells me their winning pct is super "off-the-charts" high, my first thought is that the person is trading for small tick counts (aka micro-scalping), not points. And when that person loses, he/she stands to lose at least twice as much as the intended gain. This much I now about trading with a confidence level of 99.99%. Now, take someone like Donna (aka Nod, aka NoDoji). She has a super low losing pct, but here's the catch: an overwhelming majority of her trades are b/e + 1 tick. She's the definitive model of chopping off your losers super quick and chopping off potential losers with the b/e + 1 tick once price has moved in her favor by about 1/2 the way to the target...a very wise approach when trading the CL. ;-) Go over to futures-trader dot net and download the free Money Management spreadsheet and you can get an idea of what you can expect to make long-term if your numbers have been consistent for 100's of trades. It factors in those b/e trades as part of the total win/loss pcts. I've seen a lot of people fail at day trading the futures. I don't know specifically what they did wrong because I never had access to their transactions. But what I can tell others who don't want to fail so easily is this [in big, bold print to boot]: DON'T DEMAND HIGH WINNING PCTS IF YOU WANT TO SURVIVE There is a world of opportunities at the 50/50 level (or even the 30-40% winning pct level) which have much better survivorship odds than all the newbies I've seen who think winning 70%+ of the time is where they need to be. Because it's not so important to be right a lot of the time. It's more about how you bet when you ARE right. If the market catches you when you're wrong always holding the least amount of contracts (or shares) you intend to trade as a unit and YOU catch the market holding the larger amounts of contracts (or shares) when you're right, well then...bring it on...you can be wrong 7 out of 10 times and still make a living at this game! Obviously, I'm talking about adding to winning trades. Or, for scalping, you can think of it as starting small and increasing your scalp size as the 1st part of a trend or range has asserted that you're right. ddav, good luck and I hope you make a bundle. Personally, I cringe when I see a mechanical system with high winning pcts. I know the other side of that probability coin when it comes to payoff ratios. The trading world can be your oyster at the 50/50 level. It is the road less traveled because, in general, humans hate having to take risk with those kinds of long-term odds at play (or less). But that emotion comes from the wrong part of the brain and should be ignored if one wants to succeed at this kind of game/living.
When the next signal appears on your real time chart, please post "buy" or "sell" here as soon as it appears. Once you post that here, the post can, in fact, be "unsent", but I doubt you'd want to unsend it after going to all the trouble to post it.
Nod...., with all due respect and with the knowledge that I am not a Trade station expert, if your design strategy logic was correct, then the strategy you were putting together would actually be taking back from the market all your loosing trades. I do not think I or any intelligent person on this forum would think that every other trader in the market would let you take back all your losing trades from the market and replace them with only winning trades. I think that is why Trade station is not capable of doing that. Too many people may complain. Better luck in your next strategy. I am glad that the developer did not try to get that faulty logic to work in an attempt to make the "Holy Grail". I am very, very, very glad he settled for perfect symmetry to the tick with tick accurate logic that Trade station sends to the market and never tries to take back from the market after execution.
Ele...., I would not like you to be embarking on a wild goose chase. I have gotten feedback from the developer, that the strategy is not programmed with chronological time as in the placement of the planet Earth at any one time, but it may contain the concept of measured time as in the playing of a beautiful and very melodic symphony. Perfect symmetry to the tick. Each and every swing. Over 500% AROR net. I would say "music' to one's ears.
Ele....., I assume you read all my posts. Is there contained in them any solicitation of money? I do not manage money for others. I can not read/understand the sample code I posted above, but I do have contact with the developer.
All, now some may still not understand what perfect symmetry to the tick means and signals actually being placed on the candle as it forms, that are permanent and lack the quality of being removed from the live chart. I guess there would be an easy way to proceed. If someone, knowledgeable would accept my offer to host live on the net the locked strategy, then all watching could actually see real time the signals being placed as the candle is forming. Now I have suggested that before, even to Nod.... direct and at last count I have gotten ,,,,,, counting...... counting.... still counting. Exactly "0" offers to do so. These tabulations are exhausting and time consuming, or is it that I am just still waiting?