Thank you to revive this old thread (1 year and a half). You try to be sarcastic, but I was right because I advice to short if support @249 broke, and TESLA never broke this support and tested it one hour before making new highs @286. And when TESLA broke its support below 249 2 months later, indeed TESLA was in bear market, lost a small "50%" of its value. My target was 160 dollars, TESLA crashed @140 dollars. So thank you again to prove that TA works. This thread is a good example. But I am sure you will find another example where I am wrong. Be sarcastic for good reasons at least. I never claimed I was 100% right. But this example was not a good one to criticize me ! CM
Yeah but Chris... that would be like me saying HOG is a great short @56.50 and will go to $29 but only if it breaks $53... but put a stop in at $57. I mean the what are you? The Wizard of Oz? Anybody can cover themselves like that. Your exact quote was, "When I look at Tesla charts, I can see only one direction : SOUTH. USD150, 125... Maybe USD100 in one year?! Could someone explain how to be bullish @USD200? " It dropped to $182 and then rocketed to $286. All I am saying here bro is its no different then me calling Harley a short at $57... so it went up. But you come on here and attack me. Another one of your quotes from this thread is: "You know, everyone can give his opinion, right or wrong, who cares? On ET, I search for good and bad ideas !" What changed you dude? Why the anger? I never put anybody down. Unless they attack me first. I'm all about open discussion. Why wouldn't you have said "Vz... why do you think HOG is such a great short"? Wouldn't that be more intellectual, appropriate, and better for the entire community here?
Ok, I will clarify some points / rules for you and "for the entire community", take it or leave it, progress or regress : 1 don't short strength, don't buy weakness. follow the trend. When you try to guess a top or a bottom, this is a loser game. Yes, sometimes you will be right, but for 1 win, 10 losses. For example, trying to buy Valeant making new lows like your friend syzward or trying to short HOG making new highs is a bad idea. A joke for good traders because we know the rules and live at the expense of wannabe traders. 2 understand price action and/or technical analysis Prices don't go nowhere. There ain't no random walk. There is a logic behind all these movements. For example, HOG got a clear resistance @61.50 dollars (former high). Of course probas are high HOG to retest it for the coming days. Non-sense to short it in the middle of nowhere. 3 no emotions Market and stocks are not people. HOG is not a "bitch" like you want to name it, and don't care if you, mister vanzandt, thinks it should go lower. Ultimatly, stocks will go where they will have to. In the meantime, you and your mind/psychology decide to win or lose. Emotions = no control = lose. 4 timing and patience Even if you master the former rules, there is a big difference between making some money and making a killing. The difference is timing. As the cheetah waiting for his prey, a trader must avoid losing his energy, trying to chase every small movement. This is all about preparation. This is why I use "levels" to pull the trigger. For Tesla, I wrote I will pull the trigger below 249. Finally, after a new high lower @$287 (historical top @ $291 in sep'14), stock plummed below 249 two month later, and yes it was a good level and a good timing to short. To illustrate all these rules, what about Tesla today? You revived this old thread. Is Tesla a buy or a sell @ $193 ? What is the plan ? Big picture. Tesla is in a bear market : new highs lower, new lows lower. Of course, March/ April rebound was impressive. Bulls refused to capitulate, they were close to the poorhouse! To resume, in term of psychology, lots of hope and illusion. Again a new warning last month, and rebound @178 dollars was a relief. But now? We know 140 dollars was an intermediate low, and the next low is $110. The plan is : if Tesla doesn't retest former high @$197 and on the contrary falls below $184 (this week's low) : red flag. Be ready. Close below 178 : short. Target : 110/140. What if Tesla holds above 184 ? IMO, no interest to go long. At best around 220 dollars, but with high risk. CM
Thank you. Now that we have a civil discourse going, do you have any opinion on the amount of insider sales HOG has seen in the last year. 203K shares sold, 1200 purchased. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/hog/insider-trades Also, I misspoke about the debt load in the other thread. That is attributed to HD Financial services. Approx 50% Debt/Eq. There was a rumor floating about a KKR buyout last summer, but the metrics just aren't there for a PE fund.... based on growth going forward. Stock buyback in place puts a floor in somewhere. I re-assert the target demographic is shrinking drastically. Opinion? ps ... "Mr Vanzandt".... hahahah I like that.
Insider sales are not dynamic figures, and don't show any trend. It shows personal needs : if CFO bought a new big house, maybe he needed some cash? Here 320 000 * 60 = 18 000 000 dollars or 6 big houses. Not a big deal. I think Short Interest Ratio is quite more dynamic. High ratio means high probabilities for a short squeeze when a stock is an uptrend. This is the case of HOG today: 15% of SI. Quite high, considering an average 1% for main stocks. If HOG breaks 61.5 dollars, be sure all this shorters would panic and buy in an hurry their shorts at any price. At the end, the tape tells all. If you study and master price action, you will get signals before any news / fundamentals. CM
A couple questions. I agree with your insider sale assessment,.... but what about the lack of insider buys? Probably vary's from stock to stock huh? I look at short interest too. And I agree. But take a company like FIT or GPRO. Fit had a SI of almost 30% when it was at $16. And it still crashed. I didn't track GoPro but I'd bet it was the same story. If it was that easy, a subscription to Short-Interest dot com would be well worth the money as they update daily. Right now CAKE also has a 15% SI.... I mean at what point do you say smart money is short a pig? And the pig is not going up?
And here's another question Chris... at what point based on price action, DO you short a stock like Harley? What are the tells you look for? I covered the HOG short yesterday because I know the low volume game. But seriously, at what point do they reverse?