Plenty of good points, mostly with regards to infrastructure development. If governments are to impose the transition to EVs, they need to ensure charging is as ubiquitous as filling an ice engine with gas, and it's not there today. At least in Europe the commitment to transition is there, unlike some US states that go out of their way to prevent EVs and infrastructure from taking root. Mostly, I believe that the transition is moving along at a relatively fast pace, maybe not fast enough for some, or too fast for others, but this is 2024 and we have 10 years before the 2035 "deadline" which I expect will be pushed back another 5 years. On pricing, you can't argue for and against in the same sentence. The fact is, BYD has a $10k vehicle available for sale today in Europe. A new Tesla can be purchased for just over $37k in the US. This is a result of greater manufacturing efficiencies, lower battery cost and reduced margins. I expect a number of small urban vehicles with 100 miles of range and sub 10 mn charge in the $15-25k price range in the Euro market very soon. Let's remember that the average new car price in the US is $48k so, no, EVs are no longer expensive compared to ICE. Let's remember that, at least in Europe, growth in EV adoption means a reduction of ICE vehicles and gas stations, repair shops, parts suppliers.. all replaced by EV catered businesses. Only die hard ICE drivers will remain and pay dearly for their choice. The same will happen in the half dozen US states that are mandating the transition (all West Coast states and the Northeast) and that will impact the states that are actively rejecting EVs.
You don’t see the white line showing estimates at 530k+ last year to the actual print of 386k? Xiaomi posted orders of 100k when they launched … you can blame the sector all you want but $TSLA is the one trading at a premium to peers. Expectations clearly out of line and we’ll see another spate of downward revisions into the 2H of the year.
ICE vs EV go way beyond price, with or without subsidies, and further penetration of the market goes way beyond certain states not exactly being excited about EV's, as the YT pointed out. Anyway in the meantime TSLA will need to continue to come down to a more realistic stock price relative to its current and near term growth rate. For all the bashing long only folks do, shorts actually benefit them by helping moving a stock price to where it should be so they don't overpay. Welp those who haven't bought already at over-inflated bubble prices.
No one that I follow had such a high estimate, unless it was a very early one that never got updated.
Tesla analysts cut their price targets on the stock (Yahoo) Seana Smith and Brad Smith Wed, Apr 10, 2024, 11:53 AM EDT "Wall Street analysts are cutting their price targets on Tesla's (TSLA) stock. At Piper Sandler, Tesla's price target was cut to $205 from $225; at Jefferies, it was cut to $165 from $185. Both firms also cut their annual sales expectations for the EV maker. Analysts at Bank of America also cut their price target on Tesla shares by $60 to $220 from $280." https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-analysts-cut-price-targets-155335862.html
PS: I see you @SunTrader .. good work on debating the thesis. The stock will go to where valuation is appropriate for growth. No charts needed.
Agree LAS, eventually valuation gets there. In the meantime while waiting for that to happen ... charts guide the way.
If TSLA performs like a regular EV firm then it should be valued as one, right? Why should it deserve a premium to peers if it’s not delivering better results? I’m not saying that Elon and Tesla did a fantastic job of growing output and deliveries over the past five years. But stocks are valued on future cash flows…