'Tis this time of year again, an update is warranted. Welcome to the Tesla 2024 thread. By means of introduction, I'll post this quick overview of what may be to come. https://finbold.com/tesla-stock-price-prediction-for-2024-bullish-and-bearish-forecasts/ Tesla stock price prediction for 2024: Bullish and Bearish forecasts Andreja Stojanovic Dec 19, 2023 Overall, Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) company, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), has had a very strong 2023. The EV maker’s successes are particularly highlighted by early investor worries over Musk’s divided attention after his X (at the time known as Twitter) acquisition and the broader slowdown in the EV market. Tesla has successfully navigated the year by implementing some price cuts, negotiating new potential export and production deals with India, launching the cybertuck and even making some technological breakthroughs enabling its Berlin gigafactory to start production on a new €25,000 ($27,000) car. The EV maker’s stock market performance has also been strong, as its shares have risen well over 100% since January 1. Again, Tesla’s successes are most visible when compared with some of its prominent competitors – such as Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID) – which have suffered setback after setback throughout 2023. Still, Elon Musk’s EV maker is not quite yet out of the woods and remains plagued with certain issues – such as its persisting issues with its autopilot technology and the ever-present debate on whether its stock is overvalued or undervalued. With the New Year less than two weeks away, at the time of publication, Finbold decided to see what Wall Street analysts are forecasting for the EV giant, as well as who some of its biggest bulls and bears are. Wall Street analysts predict TSLA’s price in December 2024 As is commonly the case for Tesla, there is a vast rift in analysts’ opinions when it comes to where the company might find itself in 12 months. The most optimistic among them see the EV maker’s stock go as high as $380 in the coming 366 days (get ready for a 29-day February), while the pessimists see it crashing to just $85. With these significant differences in mind, it is interesting to note that Tesla is still considered a moderate buy, with the average 12-month price target standing at $245.96 – a 2.43% downside compared to today – according to data compiled by TipRanks. Opinions are also sharply divided on Tesla’s recent 2-million-vehicle recall linked to issues with its autopilot systems. The CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson opined that the recall, despite the large number of vehicles recalled, is a “non-event” since it is more of an update than a traditional recall. Others, such as GlobalData’s Neil Saunders, pointed out that while the event may not be a financial disaster, it is still a setback that could adversely affect investor and consumer sentiment – especially given that the autopilot software is already commonly seen as something of a scam among Tesla’s critics. Bernstein: TSLA’s biggest bears for 2024 Among Tesla’s bears, Bernstein analysts are perhaps the most notable – and most vocal – having recently started promoting shorting the stock of Musk’s EV maker as the best idea for 2024. According to the analysts, forecasts for Tesla vastly overestimate its realistic value and consider the danger of a 40% downside very real. They cite the company’s limited and high-cost production lineup – specifically models 3 and Y – as major weaknesses. Bernstein analysts also back their prognosis by pointing toward market saturation and the ever-increasing competition in the EV industry. They conclude that much like Tesla had to implement price cuts in 2023 to keep up, it will have to reduce the cost of its vehicles even more in 2024. All in all, Bernstein analysts are skeptical about Tesla’s ability to sustain growth and meet expectations in the coming 2024 and consider a significant price decline a likely outcome. The 2024 bull case for Tesla While Bersntein’s bear case for Tesla makes multiple assumptions, the bull case for the company might either be far more straightforward or even more convoluted, depending on your position. The straightforward view would simply state that Tesla is a market leader in the EV industry with a history of innovation, growth, and resilience under challenging circumstances – all factors indicating that the firm will perform well in the coming year. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, in fact, is not only one of the voices that consider the recent recall an insignificant detail but also sees TSLA soaring as high as $380. The more convoluted case takes into account numerous recent developments – and their hypothetical future outcomes – when building the argument. For example, while Tesla’s new €25,000 model sounds exciting and has the potential to significantly boost demand, it first has to prove itself to be a reliable car to do so. Many bulls also point towards Tesla’s autopilot systems and involvement with artificial intelligence (AI) technology as major reasons for why Tesla might surge in 2024 – and indeed, should Tesla truly roll out a truly fully self-driving car, there is no telling how high its stock might shoot up. Still, it is important to temper one’s expectations when it comes to self-driving cars since, while modern AI technology is stunning in its abilities, there is a very solid reason why ChatGPT features the “ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information” disclaimer. Another argument for why Tesla might surge in 2024, as previously reported by Finbold, is that its stock is currently very close to its 2020 price – after accounting for the 3-for-1 split – despite it growing significantly on the business side since then. TSLA price analysis Whichever way the winds of 2024 may blow, 2023 has, overall, been a fairly strong year for Tesla. Since January 1, its shares are up 133.19%. The last 30 days – 6.99% up – and the last 7 days – 5.49% in the green – have also been positive for the EV maker. (...) Despite the overall positive trend, there was also significant volatility when it comes to TSLA, and judging by the analyst consensus – or rather, a lack thereof – the EV maker’s stock is likely to be one of the top stocks to watch next year whether you are a bull or a bear.
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...tock-compensations-bloomberg-news-2023-12-19/ Tesla skips employees' yearly merit-based stock compensations
There are more detailed articles already available. Apparently Tesla is giving raises instead of stock options. I'm not sure what to make of it. It could be an expectation that the stock will drop and thus lack the incentive it is meant to represent, or that the stock will rise more than the value it is intending to add to pay packages. Or something entirely different.
I'm no expert, but it probably has it's roots in the black magic world of non-gaap accounting and how it will apply to subsequent earnings reports.
When I look at the long term chart I see TSLA has a problem making new highs. All time high was Oct 2021 It then made a series of lower highs until Aug/Sept of 2022 It then dropped like a rock until Jan 2023 Although it climbed steadily thru most of 2023 it never has returned to Sept 2022 levels.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-launches-megafactory-shanghai-construction/ Tesla holds signing ceremony for Megafactory Shanghai BySimon AlvarezPosted on December 22, 2023 Tesla officially started its high-profile Megafactory project in Shanghai. This was highlighted in a land acquisition and signing ceremony that was held on Friday morning. The ceremony was dubbed by the EV maker as the official start of the “milestone project.” Similar to its sister factory in Lathrop, California, the Shanghai Megafactory is expected to be capable of producing 10,000 Megapack batteries per year, or about 40 GWh of energy storage. The batteries that will be manufactured in the facility are expected to be sold to the global market. The Megapack is Tesla’s flagship battery storage system. Designed specifically for grid-scale projects, the Megapack has been deployed in several key initiatives, including the 182 MW/730 MWh battery farm in Moss Landing, California, and the 150 MW/300 MWh system in New South Wales, Australia. It is offered in two variants: a 2-hour version that offers 1.9 MW of power and 3.9 MWh of energy and a 4-hour variant that features 1 MW of power and 3.9 MWh of energy. The Shanghai Megafactory was initially expected to start its construction in the third quarter of 2023, with production starting in Q2 2024, as per a previous announcement from the Lingang Special Area Administration back in April. Considering that the project just held its signing ceremony, however it would appear that the Shanghai Megafactory has been slightly delayed. It would not be surprising if Megapack production starts in the latter half of 2024. The upcoming factory will be located in the Lingang area, which is also in the same vicinity as Tesla’s existing Gigafactory Shanghai. Gigafactory Shanghai currently stands as Tesla’s highest production facility, with the company noting in its Q3 2024 Update Letter that the facility has an estimated annual output of over 950,000 vehicles. Local media outlets have noted that the Shanghai Megafactory will initially source its batteries from CATL, though the facility may also shift to Tesla’s own batteries down the road. Copyright © TESLARATI. All rights reserved.
Ironically, 2023 is another solid year for TSLA. 2022 was a difficult year, with highs that couldn't reach past highs and a deep drop that helped usher 2023. The key blame is on Elon Musk, with his acquisition of X and his repeated rants on the platform that have significantly affected the share price. Investors worry that the Tesla brand -and demand- will take a hit as a consequence. I believe that's true, yet Tesla is hitting its target sale of 1.8M vehicles for 2023; No small achievement. It has lowered its prices to thwart competition and make its vehicles more affordable to the masses while keeping its luxury brand value; also no small feat. The share price is stubbornly low, with every push getting cut down by big fish. Tesla in 2023 and forward is no longer the Tesla of 2020 driven by millions of small believer investors. I think the days of $50+ upswing days are over or rare. It's going to take significant accomplishments to get to the next value step of 400+ and break the ATH. I believe Tesla can get there, not with producing/selling more vehicles to make Musk predictions, but by expanding its profit centers. These include electric, charging stations, insurance, Dojo/AI... None of which are addressed by auto manufacturers but by other competing vendors. It's the synergy of these profits centers that will take Tesla to 400 in 2024.