First of all margins are calculated on all prices on models and all countries combined. What happens in Vegas Beijing does not stay in Beijing. Second Elon's today cut prices here too (when he wasn't chitposting about his cagematch). My earlier guestimate of support obviously no longer seems appropriate, taking price cuts into account.
Going forward, a few thoughts on TSLA 1. The bull bear struggle comes down to FSD- progress, belief in, functionality, acceptance. Not everyone is convinced, recently met someone that gave up FSD for normal AP to keep the camera off of him. Musks rosey painting getting old, what with saying by end of year yet also buying all the NVDA equipment he can along with Xing that the cars have small brains. 2. Megapacks- these should be tracked more 3. Investors should accept that lower margins on initial sales are going to continue down, absent newer exciting products to balance things out. Hence, FSD comments. 4. There are too many softball questions on earnings as they get to choose question from the retail "say" crowd. 5. 4680 cell progress gets little attention but is one of the key drivers of the big transport category. My assumption is big transport products will be sold when the cells are running better. 6. The longer Zach remains unemployed the better. 7. Scaling of Tesla ecosystem to others- I've not yet seen a good modeling of thi$. 42. My feel for this with current level of knowledge is that we ought listen to Musk when he disclosed when he might next sell stock. Perhaps 4680, CT, semi, factory expansions, lithium plant, megapack stuff is all coming together better then? Until things play out together, no reason to fire on all electric cylinders.
Good assessment. I think the other Tesla components, like Megapack, 4680, Dojo, need to show more value than they now do from a bottom line perspective. These are the extras that make the car company much more valuable. The truck and pickup will impact the share price more because of so much media attention but are insignificant for the next 2-3 years.
I think it already hit bottom at 212 on 08/18. All else in the world remaining as is, I see a bumpy long to 310+ until Q3 meeting in mid October.