Ive noticed the big names preferring to piggy back on the Tesla charging stations rather than try to compete. I thought this may catapult Tes to a new level.
Recent share price is partly a result of this, although it's overblown in my opinion. The adoption of NACS ciments Tesla as a recognized actor in the automobile sector, something that so many shorts have worked hard to dismiss over the years. Tesla's gain is relatively minimal from electricity sale at the chargers, but we can expect to see NACS plugs at all charging stations and hopefully investments to speed up the adoption of the Tesla charging model. In a near future I expect to see Tesla charging units with other vendor names on them, paying fees to Tesla for advertising, supply and maintenance.
This is an interesting phenomenon. For decades rebellious youth was primarily liberal and anti establishment. Committed activists fought oil pipelines, injustice and what nots, spray painting their anger anywhere they could, fighting the power. Today, the "fuck the system" crowd is going after progressive symbols. Yesterday was about change, today it's about anti change. Maybe it's because the majority of society is now progressive and the remaining outlet for rebellion is ultra conservatism, which would explain the crazies on the fringe right.
Swings like a pendulum. Crazies are crazies from whichever direction. As for charger adoption its a win for Tesla for sure, but doubt it helps bottom line much.
Oh, and Tesla does this too https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-confirms-dojo-now-online/ Tesla’s Elon Musk seemingly confirms Dojo supercomputer now online CREDIT: TESLA BySimon Alvarez Posted on July 10, 2023 The wait has been long, but it appears that Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer has started its operations. With Dojo in the picture, Elon Musk’s recent estimates about Tesla achieving autonomous driving in the near future may not be so farfetched anymore. Musk hinted as much in his recent Twitter activity. While the CEO noted last month that Dojo is already “online and running useful tasks for a few months,” a series of posts from the official Tesla account on Twitter hinted that the supercomputer is entering production in July. Musk seemed to reiterate this point, liking a post on Twitter stating that Dojo is handling production workloads. Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer is built to process vast amounts of data and perform complex AI and machine learning computations. While the exact technical specifications and details of Dojo are not publicly disclosed, the supercomputer is expected to be capable of processing and analyzing massive amounts of sensor data collected from Tesla vehicles during real-world driving scenarios. Through Dojo, improvements to Autopilot and Full Self-Driving are expected to accelerate. When Tesla presented Project Dojo during AI Day 2021, the company noted that the supercomputer is built with multiple aspects such as simulation architecture, which Tesla is hoping could be expanded for a more universal use. Elon Musk has also responded positively to the idea of using Dojo as a training service for other companies. “This is not intended to be just limited to Tesla cars. Those of you who’ve seen the full self-driving beta can appreciate the rate at which the Tesla neural net is learning to drive. And this is a particular application of AI, but I think there’s more applications down the road that will make sense,” Musk said. As per Tesla, Dojo is expected to start production in July, which Musk appears to have confirmed on Twitter recently. Dojo is also projected to become one of the top five supercomputers in the world around January 2024. By October 2024, Dojo is also expected to hit 100 exaflops. Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up. t © TESLARATI. All rights reserved.
These cars have dropped in value, with one brand leading the way 219 Chris Teague Tue, July 11, 2023 at 9:48 AM EDT Used vehicle prices are thankfully beginning to stabilize after a few years of turmoil. At the same time, used EV prices are taking a tumble, led by Tesla’s new car pricing changes and an increase in supply. iSeeCars’ latest study found that while overall prices slid just 3.6 percent, EV prices dropped 29.5 percent, accelerating the already-significant drops of 28.9 percent in May and 24 percent in April. Those changes follow months of price increases, during which time EV pricing growth far outpaced increases in the overall used car market. Though used pricing appears to be leveling off, iSeeCars expects the market to remain elevated from pre-pandemic levels through the rest of 2023. Tesla’s new car pricing changes have been a significant driver of the price changes. Earlier this year, the automaker began aggressively cutting prices on all models after years of progressive price increases. That put pressure on used Tesla values, which had ballooned alongside the new models’ price tags. Since Tesla vehicles comprise such a large portion of the EVs in this country, changes in its fortunes have an outsized impact on the market. The other major contributing factor is consumer demand. People have surprisingly short memories, as they tend to look for fuel-efficient vehicles when gas prices are high and buy the largest truck or SUV they can afford most other times. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the war drove the price of oil way up, which took gas prices north as a result. That shift pushed many buyers toward EVs and other electrified cars, and the jump in demand caused elevated prices. Gas prices have stabilized now, so buyers are naturally back on the SUV train, and the drop in demand means a decrease in prices. Most of the individual models with the biggest price drops were electrified, but a couple of luxury SUVs made the list: Tesla Model 3: -30.5% Tesla Model X: -21.3% Nissan Leaf: -19.2% Tesla Model S: -19% Land Rover Range Rover: -18.5% Land Rover Range Rover Velar: -17.5% Land Rover Discovery: -16.8% Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid: -16.2% Jaguar E-Pace: -16.2% BMW 5 Series: -15.5% Interestingly, some models bucked the trend and saw prices increase. The Porsche 718 Cayman, 911 Convertible, Chevy Suburban, Fiat 500X, and Mercedes-Benz SL-Class all increased in price between June 2022 and 2023, with the SL climbing more than 14 percent since last year. That said, there are deals to be found, especially on used Teslas, and iSeeCars expects prices to remain relatively flat for the next year.
Zacks.com Tesla (TSLA) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth 2h ago IN THIS ARTICLE The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 19. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise. Zacks Consensus Estimate This electric car maker is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.83 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +9.2%. Revenues are expected to be $24.88 billion, up 47% from the year-ago quarter. Estimate Revisions Trend The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.2% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts. Earnings Whisper Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only. A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Tesla? For Tesla, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.41%. On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3. So, this combination indicates that Tesla will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue? Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number. For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Tesla would post earnings of $0.83 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.85, delivering a surprise of +2.41%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times. Bottom Line An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss. That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Tesla appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar. To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
From my favorite research team to hate for their anti Tesla biais. They must have gotten rid of their last star analyst (scroll thread above for details). https://seekingalpha.com/article/46...&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads Tesla: Strong Buy Ahead Of Q2 Results Jul. 12, 2023 Victor Dergunov Tesla, Inc. stock has been volatile recently, dropping to an ultra-low $110-100 buy-in range, then surging by about 180% in the last six months. Despite the significant rebound, Tesla remains one of my top long-term holdings. Tesla could report sales of more than two million cars this year. Yet, Tesla has considerable growth potential in the Model 3/Y segments and future sales growth potential with the Cybertruck, Tesla Semi, and other projects. Estimates may be too low. Tesla could beat in the upcoming quarter and future years, enabling its stock to move substantially higher as we advance in the coming years. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Financial Prophet. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has been on a remarkable ride this year. I increased my position around the time I called for a bottom in Tesla's stock in the $110-100 buy-in range. However, Tesla remains a core position in my All-Weather portfolio despite the EV giant's shares skyrocketing 180% in the last six months. Tesla recently announced record deliveries, and Q2 revenue estimates appear low. Moreover, Tesla could report better-than-expected revenue and EPS figures for the full year. Also, Tesla's Semi and Cybertruck sales could contribute significantly to its revenues in the years ahead. Furthermore, Tesla should continue commanding a relatively high P/E multiple due to its remarkable growth prospects and considerable profitability potential. Therefore, Tesla's stock price should go much higher as the company continues expanding in the coming years. Record Deliveries - Should Enable Revenue Beats In the latest quarter (Q2 2023), Tesla produced 479,700 vehicles, delivering 466,140 cars. Tesla sold more than 19K Model S/X vehicles and about 447K Model 3/Y cars. Moreover, Tesla's deliveries beat consensus estimate figures, surging by a staggering 83% YoY. 2023 should be a massive year for Tesla, as the company could deliver more than 2 million cars this year. The company delivered approximately 889,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, and H2 should provide even higher sales. Therefore, Tesla could sell around 2.1 million S/3/X/Y vehicles this year. 2023 Q2 - Earnings Preview Tesla will report earnings early next week, and the company should provide better-than-expected revenues. The consensus estimate is for $24.68B in revenue for Q2, but Tesla likely performed better. Tesla delivered a record number of vehicles last quarter, including 19,225 Model S/X cars and 446,915 Model 3/Y vehicles. Applying an ASP of approximately $120,000 for a Model S/X vehicle (minus 8% for lease accounting 17,687 cars), provides an estimate of roughly $2.2B in revenues for the Model S/X segment last quarter. Once we adjust 5% for lease accounting in the Model 3/Y segment, we arrive at approximately 424,569 vehicles sold in Q2. If we apply a $47,000 ASP to this sector, we come to about 20.4B in sales for the Model 3/Y segment. Therefore, Tesla's Q2 revenues could come in as follows: Model S/X: $2.1B Model 3/Y: $19.9B Regulatory credits:$600M Leasing: $600M EG&S: $1.5B Services/other: $2B Q2 revenue est.: $26.7B. Note: All estimates are based on information like Tesla's 10-Q and other publicly available sources. Q2 Consensus Revenue Estimates Likely Too Low The consensus estimate is just $24.68B in revenues for Q2. Therefore, Tesla has a high probability of outperforming. Also, if the company achieves my revenue estimate, it would be an 8% beat over the consensus figure, and its stock could appreciate considerably post-Q2 results. Furthermore, higher-than-expected results could lead to more upward revenue growth and earnings revisions from the analyst community. EPS-wise, the consensus estimate is around $0.82, but Tesla's EPS could be higher in the 90-cent to $1 range. Tesla Semi Should Contribute to Revenue Growth Tesla hopes to produce at least 50,000 Semi Trucks annually. Based on the estimated ASP of about $250,000, the Semi should provide roughly $12.5B in annual revenues in its first few years of production. Tesla has delivered the first Semi Trucks to PepsiCo (PEP), and other companies expecting their Tesla Semi trucks include Walmart (WMT), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), and more. In America, between 95,000 and 284,000 new semi trucks are sold each year (closer to the upper end in recent years). On average, a semi with a sleeper can cost about $150,000, and a fully loaded semi can cost more than $200K. Provided the substantial savings companies can achieve due to fuel savings, maintenance, and other costs, it is no wonder more and more companies are choosing the Tesla Semi. While we could see Semi production in the 10-20K annual range at first, Tesla could scale up to 50K relatively quickly, achieving the target production within the first few years of its launch. Cybertruck Production to Begin Soon The Tesla Cybertruck should enter production in September this year and could become a significant new revenue stream for the giant automaker. Tesla plans to produce the pure electric pickup truck in a limited capacity this year while scaling up production for next year as the company moves forward. Tesla's CEO, billionaire Elon Musk was spotted driving a production-ready Cybertruck around Austin just months before production of the vehicle is set to begin. So, how much revenue will the Cybertruck contribute to Tesla? Initially, when the prices for the Cybertruck were introduced in 2019, the starting prices for the different truck variants ranged from about $40,000-70,000. However, this was around four years ago, and due to inflation and other factors, we could see the Cybertruck price range around $55,000-$85,000. Moreover, the average selling price may be around $70,000-75,000 for the Cybertruck. In comparison, the ASP for a Ford Motor Company (F) F150 looks to be in the $50-60K range, significantly lower than the likely ASP of Tesla's Cybertruck. Therefore, we may have relatively low demand in the early stages of the Cybertruck. However, demand in the U.S. should increase in future years. Another factor to consider is that the Cybertruck could primarily be a U.S. vehicle in the next several years. Nevertheless, the U.S. pickup truck market revenue is expected to eclipse $74B this year and could increase to around $80B in 2027. Therefore, if Tesla's Cybertruck can achieve a 10% market share (dollar-wise), it can equate to about $7-8B in annual revenues in the coming years. The $7-8B figure is also consistent with around 100,000 Cybertruck units, a likely production/delivery target in the near term for Tesla. Full Year 2023 - Revenue Estimates Tesla delivered approximately 30K Model S/X vehicles in the first half, and the full-year deliveries could arrive at around 80K. Provided that roughly 8% of Model S/X deliveries are subject to lease accounting, Tesla could sell about 75,000 luxury Model S/X cars this year. Utilizing an average selling price "ASP" of roughly $125,000 suggests we could see sales of approximately $9.4B this year in the Model S/X space. Incredibly, Tesla could deliver close to two million Model 3/Y vehicles in 2023. I want to stress how wildly popular the Model 3/Y models are now, as Toyota's (TM) Camry sold fewer than 300,000 units last year. Also, if we adjust 5% for lease accounting, we will arrive at approximately 1.9 million in unit sales this year. Utilizing an ASP of around $48,000 implies 2023 revenues of about $91.2B this year. Model S/X: $9.4B Model 3/Y: $91.2B Regulatory credits:$2.4B Leasing: $2.5B EG&S: $5.5B Services/other: $8B 2023 Total Revenues:$116.5B. We could see approximately $116.5B in total revenues from Tesla this year. My estimate is about 15% above the consensus estimate, which is only for about $101B in sales this year. Also, we can approximate Tesla's gross margins, operating costs, and overall profitability for this year. Gross Margin/Gross Profit Estimates Model S/X: 17% = $1.6B Model 3/Y: 22% = $20.1B Regulatory credits: N/A = $2.4B Leasing: 40% = $1B EG&S: 15% = $0.8B Services/other: 10% = $0.8B Gross Margin: 23% 2023 Gross Profit: $26.7B. Operating Costs/Margin/Profit Estimates R&D costs: $3.3B SG&A expenses: $4.8B Total operating expenses: $8.1B Operating Margin: 16% Operating Profit: $18.6B. 2023 Net Income/EPS Estimate Net Income: $14.8B EPS: $4.25. Valuation Perspective - Estimates Likely Too Low Despite solid growth projections, many analysts may still be behind the curve on Tesla. The company has surprised to the upside many times, and its most recent delivery numbers came in better than expected. The company's forecasts were for 440-450K vehicle deliveries in Q2, but it delivered around 466K cars instead, crushing its estimates for the second quarter. Also, we should consider future products like the Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi, providing tens of billions in additional revenues in the coming years. Objectively, we could see the Tesla Semi and the Cybertruck bringing in about $20B in additional revenues in the next 2-3 years. Moreover, growth in Tesla's Model S/3/X/Y segments should continue in the coming years, and we may see a return from price cuts as the economy resumes growth. Furthermore, there are future AI, self-driving, robotics, driverless taxi prospects, and other revenue possibilities to consider. Therefore, Tesla's revenues could come in higher than expected this year and in the coming years. This year's consensus revenue estimates are at about $101B now. However, my estimate is approximately $116.5B, roughly 15% above the consensus figure. Moreover, with new products and services coming online soon, Tesla's revenues and profitability could increase faster than anticipated in future years. Lowballed EPS Estimates - Tesla Can Do Better This year's consensus estimates have shrunk considerably during the slowdown process. The consensus EPS estimate for 2023 is only $3.55, suggesting a YoY drop of 13%. This ultra-low estimate also implies that Tesla trades around 76 times this year's EPS figures. However, my 2023 EPS estimate is $4.25 on revenues of $116.5B. Therefore, Tesla could be trading at about 64 times this year's estimates and could provide substantially more revenue growth than the analyst community projects here. Moreover, next year's EPS estimate range is vast ($3.70-8.30), suggesting the analyst community is undecided regarding the company's profitability prospects in the next several years. We could see Tesla's profitability surge faster than expected, with Tesla earning around $8 in EPS next year. This dynamic implies Tesla could be trading around 34 times forward earnings, suggesting the company's valuation may be much more attractive than it appears at first glance. Where Tesla's stock price could be in future years: The year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Revenue Bs $116 $155 $205 $270 $350 $446 $566 $708 Revenue growth 42% 33% 32% 31% 30% 28% 27% 25% EPS $4.25 $8 $11 $15 $20 $26 $33 $40 EPS growth 4% 88% 38% 36% 33% 30% 28% 24% Forward P/E 34 33 34 33 32 30 27 25 Stock price $270 $333 $510 $660 $832 $990 $1080 $1200 Source: The Financial Prophet. Tesla Stock Should Continue Higher Long-Term If Tesla sustains a healthy revenue growth rate of 25-30% in future years, it can increase sales rapidly, and profitability should follow. EPS can grow significantly as the economic recovery progresses and Tesla continues becoming more profitable. Due to Tesla's substantial sales growth rate and considerable profitability prospects, its stock should continue trading at a relatively high P/E multiple of around 25-35 in future years. Therefore, we could see Tesla's share price climb considerably in the coming years, making Tesla one of the top buy-and-hold candidates for the next decade or longer. Risks to Tesla Exist Despite my bullish outlook for Tesla, there are numerous risks to consider before committing capital to this investment. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, potential problems with regulators, foreign governments, and other variables are all valid risks. Mounting concerns could worsen sentiment, leading to multiple compression and possibly causing Tesla's share price to head in reverse. © 2023 Seeking Alpha
Closed puts with more than 50% profit. I almost forgot next week is their earnings, not holding 235-215 puts expiring next Friday and the week after. Would open positions after its earnings.