I think they are gaming the book on pretty much everything. The question is, will they ever get caught and would someone go to jai,l over that? " Tesla is very good at obscuring their economic transactions (such as adding back lease fleet Depreciation & Amortization to EBITDA when it's absolutely a cash equivalent cost)"
First Cramer, now Lutz? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/08/ex-...inally-encouraged-by-elon-musk-and-tesla.html
It's from last year but comes across as wisdom. That Ritholtz plainsite author needs to smoke a J and chillax
I'd like help in figuring future values for Tesla but recognize that most here are "traders" and not investors. What follows is a screen capture of some of what I've worked on, it is much more bullish than estimates I made many years ago. I've done some math hoping to make sure my use of financial math is correct. I ran calculations using available data for AMZN to make sure I was appropriately using P/E. The following are assumptions: 1. There are 175,060,000 shares of TSLA outstanding per TSLA Tesla, Inc. Stock Quote 2. Tesla sold 362,000 cars in 2019 and going forward could sell 50% more vehicles per year. 3. Average selling price is $50,000. I think this number is currently too low and might end up being too high in the future. 4. Income or profit is assumed to be 10% as I recall this was part of original info Tesla or Elon put out for mass market vehicles. 5. A future value P/E would like be high. AMZN is currently 84.5 My discussion: It will be difficult for them to produce 50% more vehicles next year using the data I know. China is at best going to produce 100,000 cars next year though the goal is for 500,000 per year. Model Y is the unknown both domestically and in China. It would bear well for 50% more cars if the Y did not affect model 3 production in Fremont. It might be best to be conservative. My sales and income figures likely underestimate current sales and income, for instance Finviz says current sales are at 24B, not the 18+ I have listed. Solar and energy sales are not included. FSD development might significantly alter things in the future. The one trillion dollar market cap is first attainable in 2024, more likely in 2025. This is significant for the pay package Tesla Announces New Long-Term Performance Award for Elon Musk | Tesla, Inc. The other thing to consider is the number of vehicles sold. My early estimates were somewhat based upon the world market selling 100M vehicles each year and that TSLA would capture 10% of that market. While I ultimately hope for more of the market, organic 50% growth has them capturing the 10% marketshare within 10 years. I generally think the above dates and associated figures are a little early, meaning I think it will take longer for the sales figures to occur. What say you? How can I better think of things?
2 things about Tesla: 1. The stock price doesn't really relate to any kind of reality, so crunching the numbers is an ultimately futile exercise. (even if interesting) 2. I don't see why it has to be 50% growth this year? What if it is 43%? Would it make any difference? I think they actually going to get close to 500K, they surprised me with the 360K this year. (was expecting 330 max.) They could even stop making the X, its sales is dropping and it is difficult to produce. The Y isn't much more difficult to produce than the 3 because they share the bottom. Bottom line: Most people who were crunching the numbers on Seeking Alpha didn't get the share price right. My bet is that it would stay in the 400-500 range, with a possible quick short squeeze happening.
what tesla currently produces from price point is a luxury car. I believe share of luxury new cars in US maybe around 30% worldwide I don't know but it would wise to assume half of that. so 15% You calculations assume they will produce 14 millions cars So they will take whole luxury segment I think the best case scenario they can take 20% of the luxury segment. So their theoretical limit is likely about 3 million car at current price point