Terror futures market back in business!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by funky, Nov 17, 2003.

  1. YES or NO do you agree ? Why would there be limit huh ? I have a great idea : let's even create OTC option that will let your neighbour bet than if your cat dies because of a car accident he will win the bingo. You don't have to fear for your cat, your neighbour is honest and moral statistically, it is only by bad luck that he could belong to the tail of criminals that you will have to fear something. And a cat is just an animal. But when the idea will be accepted for the cat, why not extend the principle to your child, your wife and yourself huh it's just a pure simple extension no if I follow the same reasoning as some above ?

    #11     Nov 17, 2003
  2. I AM REALLY DISGUSTED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    #12     Nov 17, 2003
  3. sle


    Harry, there is a thing like this already - insurance companies trade mortality derivatives. You see, death of a single person is a tragedy, death of a thousand is a statistic

    -- So, what's the death rate around here?
    -- Still one per person
    #13     Nov 17, 2003
  4. "The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it."
    -Albert Einstein

    "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
    -Albert Einstein

    #14     Nov 17, 2003
  5. Cutten


    Anything that allows you to profit from the suffering of politicians is a good thing IMO.

    And Harrytrader, quite frankly who gives a damn if some ruthless Middle East autocrat gets blown to bits? By the way, you might want to improve your English as it is virtually impossible to understand what you are saying.
    #15     Nov 17, 2003
  6. Isn't this just a market-based form of "insurance" akin to portfolio insurance? What's wrong with this -- isn't it just another hedging (or speculating) device? If you had a policy written by a major carrier, you're essentially making the same trade (although maybe more akin to a long-term option contract where your premium=theta)...

    If this does take off it will be interesting to see how terror futures and the $VIX interact....
    #16     Nov 17, 2003
  7. swinger



    Here's a good article on the predictive value of the terror futures market. I'm in favor of the idea. I used the Iowa Electronic Markets' political futures market to make a sizable bet on the 2004 presidential election at betonsports.com. it is giving +400 odds on Dean winning the democratic nomination, and according to the IEM's market, Dean is the frontrunner for the Democrats.

    According to betonsports.com, Bush is the favorite to win the 04 election, so the risk/reward profile isn't nearly as favorable. -140 odds on Bush winning.

    Here's the IEM chart for the 04 election:
    #17     Nov 17, 2003
  8. ertrader1

    ertrader1 Guest

    harry wake the F$%$ up...like not having such a "market" would actually stop or detour the savages that many call Arabs. LOL.....as if they dont already have a cash flow beyond that of Buffet and Soros net worth combined.

    Like NYC, CHICAGO, Miami, Sanfran etc are not already targets and are just sitting ducks for the peace loving Arabs to destroy.

    How many people will die will not be effected by such a market, it will not increase the chance of terrorism because IT IS HERE and HERE TO STAY regardless of a Terrorist futures market or not.

    And are humans just a commodite? Lets see, you think about that.....corporations use up people like batterys, throw them away before age 55, lets see politicans seek out the vote.... so YES HUMANS ARE A COMMOD. no matter how you look at it....it is just that we are a bit more civilzed and dont hold others as slaves in chains.....

    Harry trader, your about as much a trader as I am Superman.
    #18     Nov 17, 2003
  9. that's what the market is about. it's not about making money, or creating a market for terrorism or any such nonsense. perhaps those things will spring up tangentially, but the market is an ingenious barometer of likely terror activity.

    the premise is the very same premise upon which the notion of self-government is built: that people acting in their own self interest are (usually) far more efficient and intelligent than any institution.

    furthermore, the barometer will potentially be all the more effective owing to predictable behavior -- namely, greed. the den of vipers that spawns terrorists will betray its own through its own weakness. I'm pretty sure that's a tried-and-true crime solving tactic.
    #19     Nov 17, 2003
  10. Hahaha you just contradicts yourself:
    You said on one hand they have all the money power and on the other hand it will not increase the chance of terrorism ?!!! Of course it will increase the chance since they have the power to finance a catastrophe with their money and profit from the knowledge that they created it and use the leverage effect of the OPM (Others People Money) of the Victimised country through the market !

    I really wonder if at school they learned you to connect one neuron from one region to one neuron of another region sometimes LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL :D.

    P.S.: are you also naive to think that war, religion, politics are just for ideology and not pretext for making money ?

    #20     Nov 18, 2003