Iraq arms hunt in doubt in '02 By John Diamond, USA TODAY WASHINGTON â A classified U.S. intelligence study done three months before the war in Iraq predicted a problem now confronting the Bush administration: the possibility that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction might never be found. The study by a team of U.S. intelligence analysts, military officers and civilian Pentagon officials warned that U.S. military tactics, guerrilla warfare, looting and lying by Iraqi officials would undermine the search for banned Iraqi weapons. Portions of the study were made available to USA TODAY. Three high-ranking U.S. intelligence officials described its purpose and conclusions. "Locating a program that ... has been driven by denial and deception imperatives is no small task," the December 2002 report said. "Prolonged insecurity with factional violence and guerrilla forces still at large would be the worst outcome for finding Saddam's WMD arsenal." The report went to the National Security Council but was not specifically shown to President Bush, the officials said. The study findings diverge from statements by U.S. officials that caches of banned weapons would be found. In February 2003, two months after completion of the study, CIA Director George Tenet told lawmakers, "I think we will find caches of weapons of mass destruction, absolutely." Tenet was aware of the internal study, said a CIA official who advises him. But Tenet, who declined to comment, viewed its warnings as just one possible scenario among many. Tenet's view has changed. "Finding things in Iraq is always very tough," he said last week at Georgetown University. The study, which is still classified, and comments by David Kay, the former chief of the U.S. arms search in Iraq, call into question the president's remark Sunday on NBC's Meet the Press that "we'll find out" what happened to Iraq's weapons. Kay told lawmakers last month, "There will always be unresolved ambiguity" about the fate of the Iraqi arsenal. Kay said he now believes that Iraq did not have banned weapons before the war and had probably destroyed them more than a decade ago. The study looked at scenarios including Iraqi use of chemical or biological weapons and the possibility that no weapons would be found. The study considered but rejected the possibility that Iraq had no banned weapons. The study said arms searchers would be "trying to find multiple needles in a haystack ... against the background of not knowing how many needles have been hidden." Some of the obstacles outlined by the study included the expected rapid movement of U.S. ground forces over wide areas, leaving critical sites vulnerable to looting. Guerrilla warfare, the report predicted, also would make the weapons search difficult.