hey tumuco, Good starting a TA thread with charts and as close to live as possible. Nice first trade. Nice take profit spot also, I think. I'd also rather take some cash off the table. But I tend to exit early. Better early than late? Besides looks like we would probably see a little bounce before markets decide on price again. I think the bond futures will sell off a bit more though before finding some "support". You trade intraday mostly or what is your avg timeframe? Good luck!
All you say is true, dbphoenix. The intraday down trendline would have resulted in more of a giveback than I was willing to give, and I anticipated (wrongly) that that trendline would indeed be broken to the upside. If you have the time and if wouldn't be too much trouble, I'd like to see a screenshot of that trend channel to which you refer. I seem not to be able to envision it as you describe it. Thank you for your suggestions.
Hi HopelessTrader, About half of my trading is intraday, and half is swing trading positions, with hold times from a few days to eight weeks or so. Thank you for reading!
Not sure what you mean by "giveback" since it would have meant increased profit, but then we're talking about two instruments moving in opposite directions, hence the chart. I post this only because you say you're interested in trends, trendlines, and support and resistance. Given that, you can make much more of trends than most people do if you understand what they are and what they can do. I'm sure you know that there are trends within trends. Here, once one has drawn both the upper and lower lines and once price has exited this primary channel to the upside, one can draw a channel either side of this upside move. This can and generally will give one an upside target, as it did here. Similarly, when price exits the primary channel to the downside, one can draw a channel either side of this downside move which can and generally does give one a downside target, as it did today. The reason for all of this, of course, is that trend channels are diagonal trading ranges, and, like all trading ranges, they have a midpoint, or a "midline". Since the S&P/ES tends to be mean-reverting, once price has moved a certain distance from this midpoint or mean (expressed by some as standard deviations), it can be expected to revert to that mean at some point, which is where the intermediating trendlines and channels come in handy. Knowing where these reversals are most likely to take place enables the trader to make the most of his trendline/S&R trades. Incidentally, though I didn't draw it (these things can become too cluttered to be clear), you may note that price bounced off the midline of the primary trend channel two days ago, at or about 60. This suggested a return to the lower channel line -- or lower -- rather than a rally to the upper line.
I'm sorry, dbphoenix, as I was unclear in what I wrote. I meant that had I waited to exit at the break of the intraday trendline at that time, it would have meant giving back the bulk of the profit that had accrued up to that point. You are right - had I used that trendline to exit, increased profits would have accrued. Thank you for posting this, and I welcome your participation here. I may be a somewhat older dog than many of the young pups who roam ET, but I'm not so old as to be unable or unwilling to learn a new trick every so often. I have not used trendlines as you have applied them here, and I am resolving to examine your approach and see if I can learn it well enough to add to my trading. Thank you.
I'm probably older than just about everybody, if that helps, and the trendline thing goes back a hundred years, so it isn't exactly a new trick, though it's new to most. If you have any questions and I don't see them, just send me a PM.
No charts necessary today, as I had one trade, it was a chase scene, and it ended badly. I was trading on a different computer today, and dummy that I am I didn't think as I downloaded TWS that my pre-sets would not already be pre-programmed for my use. By the time I got everything sort of sorted out and working, my chance to short ES or CL was long past, and I then tried to chase UPRO. Of course, my stock pre-sets were off as well, and no sooner was I in the market I was out again. I'll post the trade log summary in the interest of ... whatever you might call it ... honesty, accountability ... it is quite boring and sedate compared to my audit trail, which is about 300 lines long and has all of two trade executions on it. The good news is that I think I have everything set correctly on this machine, so I may yet have more to report this afternoon. The bad news is I'll be on the road on Monday, and will likely be trading from yet a different machine. Here's the trade log: