Temporary "Tells"

Discussion in 'Trading' started by LuckyGirl, Feb 15, 2009.

  1. I've been studying price action, s/r, indicators, patterns, and various fundamental analysis on stocks and the economy for some months now. I love the learning process, the $ loss while I'm learning, not so much.

    Lately I have become very interested in the temporary correlations that appear and disappear. I'm theorizing that good traders, whether consciously or not, notice and act on these correlations (acting includes abstinence) until the correlation disappears.

    A typical example is the market dropping when Bush spoke. Or commodity stock prices moving ahead of the actual commodity prices.

    IMO, asking a trader to disclose an edge is akin to asking if you can sleep with his/her spouse, but hopefully there is no harm in asking if some of you could share "tells" that you have watched come and go.
  2. Short the market whenever Tim Geitner speaks. :D

    Buy if there are any terrorist threats.
  3. ET posting frequency is one. I believe that most ET posters want to get into a good position and hold it for hours during the day. Once they get that position, they only need to nurse it, and they have plenty of time to post. If they don't find that position, they stay alert to the possibility of finding one and don't post. So: a high posting day is a trend day, and a low posting day is a narrow range day.
  4. Interesting. Is this a thesis or an actual observation? This would suggest that most ET posters are skilled at reading the market. And although you used present tense, is this a dying correlation (i.e. the ET posters as a group are less able to read the market now than in the past)?
  5. The "# of ET posts" reminds me of another correlation I saw for a while: availability of a stock to short. For a while there, I found that if a stock (like POT for example) was available in IB to short in the morning, you could expect it to be an up day. If it was unavailable, you could expect it to be a down day. If a share's availability is determined by whether other IB margin players currently own the stock, it suggested that following the IB crowd was a good idea.
  6. Glucklich, when ego is involved how can one tell the difference between a thesis and an observation? But it's what I do. When I am nursing an early position I need powerful distractions to keep me from enervation and doubt. And what is more potently time-wasting and mind-dulling than reading and posting on ET? On the other hand, you never know when a narrow range day might break out, and it requires your full attention to monitor the relevant conditions.
  7. CNBC commentators say that right now stock prices are corralating with the US dollar.

    If the dollar goes up, so do stocks
    If the dollar goes down, stocks fall.
  8. I rest my case on posting paucity on a narrow range day.
  9. Lucrum


    Personally, I prefer temporary tails.