Well, as I said before, "guessing" can't work to produce consistent results. The "arrow clusters" you see on the charts are very highly correlated with reversal. Having said that, multiple Entries need to be used, as Market Makers will "run through" or "run beyond" somewhat. As everyone knows, high volume occurs at pivot points in ordinary trading. In Micro Scalping, since markets are fractal, the same principles apply, but these are not just volume increases, they are "directional volumes", as Market Makers take the Opposite Side of the predominate retail Buying at the top in the screenshot. This has the huge advantage of entering precisely at the pivot, and also "Selling into Buyers" as you do so. But no trader, on any timeframe, should ever base trade entries on "mere guessing". Technical Analysis which is proven valid is the only basis on which trades should be taken, whatever your timeframes are....... Even with "swing trading", for example, I would choose Forex pairs which are "overbought" and "oversold". I have Murrey/Gann Math Indicators which allow me to identify just those pairs which are "extreme", and these are "faded" on longer term trades. All trading, since it predicts the future, has an element of "guessing" or "randomness" about it, but we want high correlations in our technical analytics which support our trade Entries and Exits, of course HyperScalper
Since I mentioned Swing Trading strategies based on technical analysis, here are the rankings of 28 major Currency Pairs as of end of Trading on Friday, based upon Murrey/Gann Math markers established at the Start of the Trading Week. Although there's a "4 hour" period and a "Daily period", let's just consider the Daily rankings. Based upon this, we assign a score 0..8 within the Murrey range, where -1 and -2 are OVER-SOLD, and 9 and 10 are OVER-BOUGHT. Selecting candidates based on a "reversion to the mean" strategy we would therefore SELL-SHORT EUR/AUD (Index 11.80 Daily) as the most OVER-BOUGHT, in anticipation of a drop over the next few days. By the same reasoning, AUD/NZD (Index -2.42) would be a candidate for a LONG trade entry. That's an example of a Swing Trading strategy based upon a 28 Currency Pair "market scanner" which gives you a rational basis for trade selection. HyperScalper Code: 18:01:08 Rankings for 4 HOUR period 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 GBP/AUD index: 12.06 - | + | + | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 EUR/AUD index: 11.80 | + | + | - | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 USD/CAD index: 11.39 - | + | - | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 EUR/CAD index: 8.36 - | + | - | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 156.25 GBP/JPY index: 7.45 - | - | + | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 NZD/CAD index: 7.03 | + | - | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 156.25 EUR/JPY index: 6.74 - | | + | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 78.12 NZD/JPY index: 6.19 - | - | - | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 AUD/CAD index: 6.17 | + | - | + | | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 78.12 CHF/JPY index: 5.74 - | + | + | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 GBP/CAD index: 5.08 - | + | - | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 EUR/USD index: 4.28 + | + | + | - | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 GBP/CHF index: 4.13 - | - | - | + | | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 156.25 USD/JPY index: 3.98 - | - | + | + | | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 USD/CHF index: 3.70 | - | | + | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 EUR/GBP index: 3.69 + | + | + | - | | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 NZD/USD index: 3.38 | | - | - | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 EUR/NZD index: 3.21 | + | + | | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 78.12 CAD/JPY index: 3.18 | - | + | | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 244.14 GBP/NZD index: 2.75 - | | + | + | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 7.63 EUR/CHF index: 2.03 | | | | | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 NZD/CHF index: 1.51 | - | - | | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 GBP/USD index: 1.46 - | + | - | + | + | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 78.12 AUD/JPY index: 1.28 | - | - | + | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 AUD/USD index: -1.00 + | | - | | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 AUD/CHF index: -1.91 | - | - | + | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 AUD/NZD index: -2.42 | | + | + | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 CAD/CHF index: -3.44 + | - | + | - | - | | | | | | 18:01:08 Rankings for DAILY period 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 EUR/AUD index: 11.80**************** + | - | | + | + | + | + | + | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 312.50 GBP/JPY index: 7.73** - | + | | | - | - | - | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 312.50 EUR/JPY index: 7.37** + | + | | + | - | - | - | + | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 156.25 NZD/JPY index: 7.09** + | + | | - | - | - | + | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 USD/CHF index: 6.92 - | + | | | - | - | - | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 156.25 CHF/JPY index: 6.87 + | + | | + | - | - | - | + | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 USD/CAD index: 6.85 + | + | | + | + | - | + | + | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 156.25 AUD/JPY index: 6.64 - | + | | | - | - | - | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 EUR/CAD index: 6.18 + | - | | + | + | + | + | - | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 244.14 GBP/AUD index: 6.03 + | + | | - | + | + | | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 312.50 USD/JPY index: 5.99 - | + | | | - | - | - | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 GBP/CAD index: 5.08 + | - | | + | + | - | + | + | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 312.50 CAD/JPY index: 4.79 - | + | | | - | - | - | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 GBP/CHF index: 4.06 - | + | | - | + | - | - | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 EUR/GBP index: 3.69 + | - | | + | - | + | + | - | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 EUR/NZD index: 3.21 + | | | + | + | + | - | - | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 244.14 EUR/USD index: 3.03 + | - | | + | + | + | + | - | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 NZD/CHF index: 2.76 - | - | | - | - | - | + | + | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 244.14 GBP/NZD index: 2.75 - | + | | + | + | - | - | + | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 AUD/CAD index: 2.17 + | - | | + | + | - | + | - | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 NZD/CAD index: 1.76 + | - | | - | | + | + | + | + | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 30.52 EUR/CHF index: 1.51 - | | | | - | | + | - | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 AUD/CHF index: 1.04 - | | | | - | - | - | - | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 244.14 GBP/USD index: 0.37** - | - | | - | + | + | + | - | | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 CAD/CHF index: 0.28** - | + | | | - | - | - | | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 NZD/USD index: -0.31**** + | - | | - | - | + | + | - | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 AUD/USD index: -0.50**** - | - | | | - | | + | - | - | | 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 61.04 AUD/NZD index: -2.42**************** - | | | + | + | - | - | - | + | |
Is it wise to sell a moon rocket that's just taken off ? What will your stop be ? Will you be scalping for 3 points ?
In this case, as I said, we are referring to a "Swing strategy" or at the very least we are holding for 4-8 hours and maybe a day or more. So in these cases we are looking for 50+ PIPs and would use a trailing stop in order to "lock in profits" so as not to lose any substantial gains. This is the opposite end of the spectrum from Micro Scalping and my trading operations are diversified in the sense of using both approaches, as well as robots, all of which contribute to the bottom line. But in the case of Micro Scalping, we are targetting as little as 3 pips, but as we've found a major pivot, and we know USD/JPY very well, we know that it will give us 10+ easily so we want to allow those targets to be reached. In the unlikely event with Swing trading that the "moon rocket" is really "taking off", which means that the established Murrey/Gann range is genuinely being broken, then we would tend to stop at roughly 20-30 PIPs. But note that I said "unlikely" event, so we have "stacked the odds" in our favor by choosing an extreme value to "fade". In the end, trading is "educated guessing" and is always predicting a future outcome, so of course we could be wrong, but if we take multiple trades in Swing Trading which are each based upon the same high probabilities, if one fails, then many more will succeed so we've hedged our bets somewhat ! Hope this helps to understand what I'm proposing. HyperScalper.
Hey, let's post this EUR/AUD SHORT Swing Trade from 1.51119. Attached is the image. Interestingly, with this one, the "Daily" Murrey values and the "4 Hourly" coincide, as you can see they designate the same range. The notation above shows the last few daily bars, and we can see that EUR/AUD has risen EACH day for the past many bars Code: 18:01:08 BandWidthPips: 122.07 EUR/AUD index: 11.80**************** + | - | | + | + | + | + | + | + | | The "bar separated symbols" show the last 10 periods, and we see that except for the very last one (now), we've had STRONG + DAILY rises from EUR/AUD. This is just a crude guide for the recent past history leading up to the current situation. I'd feel fairly comfortable fading this, but let's see what happens over the next few days. That will be fun. HyperScalper
Why didn't you just hold it? I have a long on AUD/JPY I have been holding forever, it will come back eventually and in the mean time im making profits in difference trades, I haven't closed any losing positions for ages
Just didn't have the stomach for it. It was against the longer term trend and I just wanted to let it run long enough to recover the earlier two losses plus a small gain. 8pips was enough to do that. Attached is what ended up happening. It continued in my direction for an additional 40 pips before reversing back.
Looks like quite a nice trade actually, doesn't matter that it kept going up, I only take a bit and get out of my trades and don't care what it does afterwards. I can't take trades unless the longer term trend in going my way, its hard to get out of a bad position when the trend is against you
If I may ask , what are you risking in percentage terms on this aud/jpy trade? Have had the view that Japan is the worst printer out of major central bank and is kind of forced to continue... Where is the thread "Gotta Love ZERO RISK in printing yen!!!!!" ?