Or you can be a bull in a Chinashop like me, and try to swing through these stupid 10-20% corrections for weeks. (Not recommended.) Swing is rough in these market conditions. I have a sneaky feeling though, that after the initial blast down on Sunday night in ETH, which WILL happen, depending on what happens at G7 could provide another push up. And it all depends on ONE MAN. FUBAR.
Thanks for your reply, I'll respond in detail later. For now, since you mentioned this statement.. I am quite alarmed. I believe you are a victim of the survivorship bias (and this also answers your question in your original post... the one if you're delusional). Read this book, immediately. If I were you I wouldn't make another trade until I've read this book. It explains many things along with survivorship bias better than I can in a forum comment. This will help too; https://t.co/67C6v9PLGM
That could very well be. Except for the "surviving" part, lol. I'd be happy to be surviving. Instead, I'd say that I'm ... learning. At any rate, I love that twitter convo. Ok, I'll bite. This book sounds too interesting to pass up. I can't promise that I won't trade anymore. But I'll be doing more sim and less live. And be not alarmed, my live sizes are very small.
I’ve known NNT since he traded at Paloma. The guy lost nearly 20% while there. So yeah, buy his book and perhaps you can replicate that performance!
Don’t waste your time with sim. It isn’t reflective of any performance because you don’t know if that’s how you’d behave if your real life money was at risk. 1) either program a computer to trade on your behalf 2) trade yourself with real money (involves emotion, which we will never defeat, but must go around). Yes, order and read ASAP. And about survivorship bias, you said you cannot ignore the success people are having intra-day trading but you're doing exactly what the Navy did wrong and what Wald got right in their analysis. You are looking at those who are "succeeding" with intra-day and ignoring the big pool of failures that, relative to the successes, overwhelm the distribution. Probabilistically(perhaps, running a monte carlo simulation), you'll have some paths out of a sample of intra-day traders that have positive returns for awhile, and some even longer than awhile... means nothing. Still can be noise. But if there is an individual who intra-day trades and trades at a high frequency over a period of a decade and makes consistent returns over thousands upon thousands of trades... then I can accept that there is skill in that instance. Don't be fooled... ya know, by.. randomness. Get it?
I know that I trade very differently in sim than live. But it still adds value. The simulation undeniably replicates price action.
smh................................... The books aren't for money-making but survival guidelines... In order for me to "MAKE MONEY"... I must first SURVIVE. That is what it is about.... survival! Not a strategy to make money....... Did you survive deploying the information and knowledge obtained from the books of NNT? YES!