Tell me why averaging down is a bad idea .

Discussion in 'Trading' started by joker542, Jul 25, 2019.

  1. CALLumbus

    CALLumbus

    In my case, I would not call it "averaging down", but "scaling into a position" or "building a position".
    It is simple, no rocket science. Price falls, crowd wants to get out, I buy. Price falls more, seems like panic I buy more, offering liquidity. Usually very soon price reverts at least a bit, I sell my position to the trapped shorts, again offering liquidity to the shortterm burst to the upside. I do all this on a very short timeframe, usually within seconds. Once in a while, the market keeps running against me and I have to liquidate my full position for a loss, but as long as your total losses for a week or month are smaller than the gains it is all ok. You can not win all the time.

    It is the same old game, every day. Buy low, sell high. Could also do it without "scaling in", but most of the time I prefer to enter in portions, works better for me.
    The edge is not in averaging down, scaling in, pyramiding or other stuff like that. You still have to be good with your timing, you have to know/ feel when to enter and exit. You learn this by experience, time in the market. Hard work.
     
    #31     Jul 25, 2019
  2. They

    They

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/i-would-like-to-discuss-averaging-down.248511/
     
    #32     Jul 25, 2019
    coplii, CALLumbus and tommcginnis like this.
  3. They

    They

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/grinding-it-out-day-after-day.187730/
     
    #33     Jul 25, 2019
    coplii and CALLumbus like this.
  4. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    I've seen quite a few systems like this work amazingly in backtesting and pretty well in real-time for a few years..until we have a 20%+ (or worse) crash or a period where the market goes down for 10-15 straight days (or on 80-90% of those days). Trust me...leverage will eat your lunch in those situations.

    The only way this makes sense is if you have a retirement account with some extra cash and do this to buy long-term, non-leveraged, buy-and-hold stocks/funds....but that only works if you're lucky enough to open such an account right before a crash. People who wait for a correction usually sit through multiple double-digit gain years waiting for a "buying opportunity." They're better off investing right away or dollar-cost averaging for 6-12 months until they've made all their purchases.
     
    #34     Jul 25, 2019
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  5. LS1Z28

    LS1Z28

    Scaling into a position with a defined stop isn't necessarily a bad thing, but adding to a losing trade in hopes that it will turn around is really stupid.

    [​IMG]
     
    #35     Jul 25, 2019
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  6. joker542

    joker542

    and I am not adding to losing trades. What I am thinking is to enter small then add position to my trade (but I only add position if my stop loss is not hit).and wait for reversals to play out.
     
    #36     Jul 25, 2019
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  7. joker542

    joker542

    that's why I have stop loss placed . and if my stop loss is not hit and price is against me than I add to my position . and in case my stop loss is hit , I am out of the trade.
     
    #37     Jul 25, 2019
  8. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    Search: Kelly Criterion.
     
    #38     Jul 25, 2019
  9. That is exactly why I said for buy and hold investments, you are better off to add to winning trades. Doubling down is a trader's tactic to get out whole, not an investment strategy. If you're buying size, there is nothing wrong with scaling into a position, but each add is really another independent trade that adds risk.
     
    #39     Jul 25, 2019
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  10. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    That's fine. I still doubt there's any edge in the strategy...at least in real time.
     
    #40     Jul 25, 2019
    coplii likes this.