You might say why did you short in the middle of a channel? Isn’t it better to short in top 1/3 of a bear channel? Generally it is and I would have kept adding up to that level if price would have gone there. But I shorted in the middle as was a bear channel with more than one leg down. Bear bars bigger than bull bars. Every bull bar reversal failing or immediately (or within a few bars) undone by a bigger bear bar. Tails on top of bars. Most bull bars overlapping. Price staying below 50 sma which is the intermediate trend of the day AND it is sloped down. Price most of the time with it’s PB’s staying below 21 EMA. AND the EMA sloped down. Gap down on the open. Every bull reversal attempt driven back down. It is quite obvious who is in control. And it ain’t the bulls. The attempt to fill the opening gap failed. Look at the tails on top of first few bars after the open. The OPENING RANGE BO guess what... fails. This baby is going south. Unfortunately, I had other things to do and could not trade or watch the markets until a few minutes before i took my first entry. But everything screamed to me measured move down. Taken together all these things indicated fertile ground for shorting, at least an intraday MM. Am I afraid of revealing any secrets here. NO! NO! NO! There is nothing to hide.
Here is a secret. Trade small enough it doesn’t matter if you lose and focus on the process and execution and not the money.
In a market with price swings this huge, it is just a bad idea. Volpri, you are citing only examples where it is working in your favor. Will you post the days where it will not work in your favor? Your analysis is showing that nasty habit of backfilling in reasons why the trade worked. We all do it.
Sure I will POST those days if I ever get one! ROFLMAO. Backfilling? You ever tried trading live on a 1 to 5 minute chart and at the same time draw in patterns and type in the reasons for the trade to help some soul out there (maybe) all while you analyzing and executing the next trade? Ain’t easy my friend. Especially, when you type with one finger pecking...LOL Hey go easy on me. I’m trying to help. If I ain’t helping no one I can stop immediately. I know you don’t like averaging down but I happen to believe done under the right circumstances it can be profitable even on an instrument as tiny as MES. I would hope I am showing that. I have a flight to catch tomm but maybe I can get a trade or two in the ES and try to have a bad day on purpose so things will look more realistic and make you happy. LOL
No, as that would distract me from the trade. And I do not trade time-based charts. I totally respect that. Don't stop doing what yer doing. You are mistaken. I LOVE the idea of averaging down, in, scaling, what-have-you. But I have learned that when it fails, it fails in a major way. Now that is just dumb. Do not have a bad day on purpose just to prove a point, on someone else's behalf. We've had enough of that in our lives, the whole passive-aggressive thing. Just keep on truckin'.
volpri, next time you have a stop-n-reverse, would be very instructive if you post it, please do so if you can.
Sorry overnight. I was not able to make it lose this morning. Sometimes on the open if I trade it I can get a loss but this time it kept going my way in MES so I just jumped out so as to not make more money. Had the same problem in the ES. Was trading both at the same time. Anyway got to get ready for my flight. If I can slip in another trade or two after I get ready maybe I can drum up a loss. But I am not sure if this airport in Honduras has internet. We will see. I still love averaging down even though it didn't make me lose.
Don't for a minute think the market will help you lose just because you want to lose ! You can only lose if you put in all the hard work and experience, and only then you might achieve it
Unfortunately here is what happened in the ES. I have to admit 100 dollars was made in night session but couldn't seem to lose there either. Anyway, that trade is not on the chart but is in the stats, I think. I have to go get ready for my flight. Much much more could have been made from the open to now but at some point I HAD TO SHUT IT DOWN and post this stuff and get ready to fly. I don't have time to "backfill" on the tactics so I guess folks will just have to figure it out. There are reasons for scalping the way I do. Done right = high win rate. Done right = less stress (not seeing a paper profit then riding thru an adverse reaction and getting stopped out wishing I had taken my profit when I had it.) Done right = psychological health and a confidence builder. Done right = more $ in less movement than hold and hold. Done right = compounding profit. Done right = much more profitable than holding for larger moves. Hurst talks about this concept in his book. The downfall of scalpers (and I might say any trader or even an investor is GREED.) Most everybody is greedy. Even the greats. and when the greats fall the fall is BIG BIG BIG. "To bed to bed said sleepy head lets wait awhile said slow. Hang onto the pot said greedy gut lets eat before we go" "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"