Techs firming up to lead the next run?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by EMRGLOBAL, Apr 10, 2008.

  1. What the hell does the Nasdaq 100 have to do with huge gains?

    The Nasdaq 100 is highly correlated with the entire market as a whole, which means roughly 11% annualized...(although, going forward it will be considerably lower than that most likely). What don't you understand about this? The largest tech companies don't have the growth that gives you large returns.

    If you want gains that are larger than the market as a whole, you buy industries that are best aligned to grow. Do you honestly think that in a recessionary environment that the Microsofts and Googles are going to grow? Don't you understand that tech spending by their customers is the FIRST thing that is cut?

    C'mon boy...you have to look at the macroeconomics, not just your biased view of the world that you WISH your favorite industry functioned in.

    Now, contrast this with financial companies that are writing off potentially huge paper losses. These paper losses are probably going to be very conservative, thus written down more than they should. Add in low interest rates, and everybody and their mother will be looking for loans with these low interest rates once the economy stabalizes, and now you understand why the banking industry as a whole is going to be able to pick and choose very carefully who they give the loans to...thus reducing their risks and creating huge profit potentials.

    All the small to mid cap tech companies will also be fighting to get those low interest rates to fund R&D...but the consumer spending in R&D won't happen until jobs start rebounding. Once jobs start rebounding, the financial industry will have already started to recover.

    Are you so ignorant that you can't see how tech spending is the last thing to come on line in a market recovery?
     
    #11     Apr 10, 2008