I want to continue with the concepts of PB’s and implied PB’s. In my post #943 I stated: The concept for this example is: "In a bullish move a doji bar that closes in the middle or lower and has a big tail on top is a pb EVEN if the doji's low does not go below the low of the previous bar. It is an implied PB" Now I want to describe implied PB’s in a bearish move. The chart below shows 3 examples of implied PB’s in a bearish move or trend. Remember any large bear bar closing near it’s low is A TREND on a smaller TF. So, it is a bearish move. Two or more such bars are just a larger bearish move especially on a smaller TF. The chart is explanatory. But it is crowded. I suggest printing it out and studying it closely. Now for the concept: “In a bear trend or bearish move a doji (with a tail on bottom ...even if large tail closing near it’s high) or a bull bar and either one doesn’t close above the high of the previous bar then either one is an implied pullback.” I like to short the close of said doji or said bull bar, whichever it is. After my initial entry I am then “position on”. If it immediately goes south I get quick profits. If instead, price keeps heading up after my initial short entry, then depending on the larger context, it becomes an opportunity for averaging down (scaling in to be nice...ROFLMAO). The yellow circles on the chart are potential averaging down areas. The correct minimum SL (stop loss) is just above the previous high at the start of the bearish move south. See the red horizontal lines.
Always use a SL. Why? When trading an implied pb one is betting the pb will be small and the previous trend will pick back up. In broad bear/bull channels or broad ranges that can be the case, but not always. It is a bet. Have a SL in place. SPBL (small pullback bull trend day) which are usually a grinding bull trend that is relentless, buying implied an PB, can be safer. On SPBR (small PB bear trend days ) selling an implied PB often is safer as these sort of trends are relentless and much of the time small range bars. Less volatility. But I make less dollars unless I add on in subsequent (i.e. scale up in position size) implied PB’s. Or exit with profit and enter again on another implied PB.
Here is a snippet from todays 12-21-2020 MES showing an implied PB in a bear intraday move. This bear move was actually a deeper PB from a grinding relentless move up that began on bar 9:20 after the GAP down opening. All other PB's were minor. So, remember the concept. In a bear move (in this case the deeper PB) that actually started at bar 13:40 two bars back before the snippets first bar. So we get a bearish move down on this PB then a DOJI that doesn't go above the previous bars high and has a tail on the bottom. That doji is a PB on a smaller TF. The bet is the bearish move (i.e. the deeper PB will continue for at least enough for a scalp. The idea is short the close of the doji and add if it moves against me. The yellow is that "scaling in" area or averaging down (if you will LOL). The larger context is a strong bull trend in the form of a SPBL trend day after the opening gap down. The intermediate context is the first deep PB since (9:20 a.m. The immediate context is a doji implied PB (but an actual PB on smaller TF). The tactic is to short the close of the doji (blue line pointing at the doji). Then wait for enough drop to cover with a decent scalp. The SL is at minimum above that first bar in the snippet. Ok I will now go see what happened and take a second snippet. Maybe enough of a slide down to make a decent scalp occurred. I would not want to follow this too far as the larger context is very bullish.
And here is what happened. Easily a 4 to 6 point scalp covering on the bear bar (green line) that followed. Hardly any adverse move against the initial short position taken on the doji but enough to scale in or average down if one wished. Again, the averaging down area is the yellow or anywhere on that bull bar that followed the initial entry on the doji. Maybe these snippets will make the concept clearer when shorting an implied PB on a 5 min chart that is an actual PB on a 1 min chart. NOTE: Three bars later (after the exit on the bigger bear bar) we see another doji that is an implied PB and a chance for another scalp rendering a profit on the very next bar.
Here is the view again from the 5min chart (first chart) AND 1 min chart (second chart). See the actual PB on the 1 min chart(implied PB on the 5 min chart via the doji) then the drop down for a 4 to 6 point scalp.
Ok here is a little exercise. Here is Mondays 12-21-2020 5 min MES or ES RTH's chart except for the last few minutes of the session. It opened with Gap down bears pushed hard then bulls pushed back and then morphed into a SPBL (small pullback bull trend day) for the rest of the day. The gray rectangle is the area of the snippets above in posts #967 and #968. Now remember the concept for bull moves since most of the day it was a bull move. The snippets dealt with the bearish move on the larger PB. This exercise will deal with the bullish move which was most of the day. The concept is: "In a bullish move a BEAR bar (my post #964 only mentioned a doji but the concepts includes a bear bar too) that doesn't go below the low of the previous bull bar and closes below it's midpoint OR a doji bar that closes preferably in the middle or lower, and has a tail on top (even if it closes a bit above it's midpoint at least have a tail on top as long as it's low goes below the high of the previous bar); both are PB's. EVEN if the low does not go below the low of the previous bar. But they are implied PB's. On a smaller TF they are actual PB's" The tactic or technique is: I buy the close of the of the bear bar or doji and scale in (or better said average down if it goes against me ROFLMAO), then I wait for the pop up. Get me a decent scalp. I always want a SL in place just in case. However, on SPBL trend days I can grab profits over and over without much risks. So the exercise is for some brave soul to mark up the chart with every instance they see that the above concept came into play. A definition of a doji for this purposes is that it is a bar with a small body or no body. What we are looking for are pauses in the trend that will yield initial entries and additional averaging down entries in a very good larger context setting (i.e. SPBL trend context). We are looking for those PB's or pauses in the form of implied PB's on this 5 min chart. On a smaller TF they will be actual PB's. So whoever wants can just circle the opportunities (the initial entry and the averaging down area if applicable) and then figure out that if you had taken those trades would you have a high win rate? ROFLMAO. Maybe repost the chart for others to look at.