Moring volpri, Thanks for responding. Good conversation. Before the loss trade, I made $100 on this trade https://www.tradingview.com/x/wh72uMkj/ (entry blue, exit purple, stop orange). This BO was very strong ( 5 bulls bars closing above mid points). This gave me confidence or high probability the upper trading range (to the left) would breakout. I was surprised by the bears quick sell off here (not even a minor bull flag was created here). At this time, my mindset was still bullish as I was looking at this bull leg in bigger TR. When price reversed down to alot of support (recent BO resistance, EMA, and triangle trend line), I waited to see what the bulls would do. When I saw a strong bull bar closing near its high, I thought to myself, their is a good chance the bulls will make an another tempt higher and at least I can set my profit target near the upper range, so I took it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/75azdQCI/ I did not want to use a big stop on this trade because I knew if the bulls did not hold this level there is high odds bears will continue lower. hmmm, if I can go back and redo this trade, instead of entering long on the first bull bar, I wait for more information and wait for another bull bar and then enter for a scalp. Or wait for a H2 signal, which occurred a few bars later, but I would not have been filled. The third trade, was an easy one https://www.tradingview.com/x/7KPGbqTj/ I was confident if the bulls did not hold where I entered at there would more made bulls as myself, exiting their positions, so I entered short for a quick scalp and exit at local support.
3 trades today October 21. Two short. One long. Chart TF is 5 min. Three trades is all I had time for today even though there were more opportunities I had other stuff to do. All were profitable. Win rate 100%. Again, I will reiterate as I have in this journal; scalpers need to maintain a high win rate, GRAB them profits, and Compound when one can do so. I added volume (for the volume aficionados). One short straight scalp. One averaging down long. One averaging down short. All using Range trading tactics. Trade #1 Red dot top left straight short scalp. Entry 3449.75 Exit 3446.75 (3 points). Trade#2 average down 4 times after the initial entry with last time being near the bottom of the range. Initial long entry was second green dot down from top left of chart 3443.25. Added second long ...averaged down entry 3441 (3rd green dot down), next added more long... averaged down long at 3438 (4th green dot down), next added more averaged down long 3432 (5th green dot down), finally added last long entry averaged down (6th green dot down). Then waited for price to go back up through my initial entry and exited all longs at last red dot 3443.75 (going left to right) on the chart just above the initial entry of the averaged down long position. You can figure the points made from entry to exit on each averaged down entry. I am not going to. Suffice it to say all entries in trade #2 were profitable. So you can better see the Range...
Third trade averaged down short. Initial short entry (3rd red dot from left of the chart) at 3447.50. Added more short at 3449.50 (4th red dot going left to right on the chart)..i.e. averaged down short. Exited entire position at 3444.75 (Last green dot on right side of the chart). You can figure the profit on each entry to exit. All were profitable. I won’t figure them. The above trades show how to average down in range trading. It works same way for ES just more risk assumed in terms of $$$ amount. But of course more $$$ in terms of profit amount. On the averaged down long (trade#2) when would I have taken a loss and double up reversing direction to short? If price traded south of the range, and didn’t head back up towards the bottom of the range within 5 bars and at least get back into the range shortly after those 5 bars then I am strongly considering exiting the losing position reversing directions with a new doubled up position. OR if the initial BO bar south is A big bar or two and strong then I am not waiting for 5 bars to see if price goes back up into the range rather I would likely exit immediately then reverse and double up position size but in the new direction. The other two trades were in top 1/3 or so of the range And both trades were short positions so any averaging down if the opportunity were presented (as in the last trade) would be averaging down as price moved against me to the top of the range. Rules for exiting would be the same as described above for the long trade but applied to out of the top of the range. This type of TR tactics are based on the odds that 80% of BO attempts top or bottom of an established range (at least 20 bars in the range) fail and price trades back into the range. It is fading the outer limits of the range except in trade #2 (the averaged down long trade) where a different TR tactic was used in the middle 1/3 and bottom 1/3 of the range.
A word about my larger averaging down long position above in trade #2. 1) By averaging down I avoid multiple losses that would take place by continually exiting on SL’s multiple times and entering again ...losing again...as price went against my long position in trade #2. It is harder for a scalper of 1 to 8 points (or say 15 points on higher volatility days) to recover from the bleeds of many cuts in the same trading session. 2) Averaging down (at least for myself) is seen as getting in at better and cheaper prices as I build my position. As long as my premise for entering the trade is intact and that the initial entry correlates with the overall context (in this case RANGE with 80% fail rate on BO attempts top or bottom) and my reasoning for doing so is logical (at least to my mind). 3) when the market crashed on black Monday in “87” and the Dow went down by 508 points crashing 22.6% and everyone was in a great panic and distress ...the words of Sam Walton stuck in my mind and have been there ever since: The collapse wiped out more than $500 billion worth of market wealth. "It was paper when we started out, and it's paper afterward," shrugged Sam Walton, believed to be the nation's wealthiest man, whose holdings dropped more than $1 billion in value in a single day. And he said “it will come back if I remember correctly” How does this apply to intraday scalping in a single trading session? Well everyday we have like market crashes (percentage wise) on SOME time frame. If not on the 15 or 5 min then on the 1 minute or 30 sec TF. Not only does the market crash EVERYDAY it is always in a channel on some TF. A channel is a range.... just a tilted range. What may be a Bull Channel on a 60 min chart may have one or more Horizontal ranges within it on a 5 min. Usually a bunch more on a 1 min. Look at a chart of black Monday. Now look at a 5 minute or one minute chart. The CRASHES will basically be the same look. ROFLMAO. The market crashes EVERYDAY on some TF! Think about it! Now Mr Walton had to have enough money to ride through the paper losses. But I am quite sure he would have had a “give up point”. A point where he would take his losses and possibly reverse and maybe even doubling position size in the new direction. Translate that to intraday scalping. I have “give up points”. I may exit with a loss before the give up point is reached (depending on price dynamics ..i.e...the “How” price is ACTUALLY making the moves that it makes..grudgingly..swoosh.,etc) but I always have to have a “give up” point if not a hard SL at that point, at the very least a mental SL. That is the point where I will bite the dust on any averaged down position, reverse on a good signal and likely double up in the new direction. Why double up? Because I generally get my loss back and in profit again shortly after a 1/2 Distance move of the loss that I suffered. If I triple up much faster. You get the idea. Why have a “give up” point? If the context and immediate PA indicated my premise is entirely wrong. No point in remaining in the trade and averaging down more and more thus amplifying my losses. Context..Context..Context correlated with immediate PA.
In my experience, and just my own, each time I reverse a trade after taking a loss, it ends up being a loser as well. This of course means that instead of taking the stop, I should have averaged into the trade instead of reversing direction. Now my trade selection is perhaps much worse than yours, and my exits are perhaps also just as horrible. But after averaging into a trade 4 times, and it not coming back to you, it seems deadly to all of a sudden change direction, since its perhaps way overdo for that bounce back. But of course, when discussing trade 2 above, as long as it didn't break too low below that range, its still safe. In fact, even a break below the range isn't bad. In my head, if I knew that my first long entry was so high up, and my hard stop is below that range, I'd be holding my firepower for lower down. But I can see why you at least added to the long at the red MA, and also perhaps at 3432 since it was a previous swing low.
Volpri, thank you for sharing your trades. Regarding trade #2, I want to review the same set of trades from Brooks perspective, and also how I actually traded, using both his and your technique. Brooks: he saw nothing to buy since all bars you bought at are bear bars, even though you bought from the 50% all the way to 100% to 130% pull back from the previous bull leg up; but I recall he was hesitating to short afraid of a parabolic wedge reversing up any moment. But he is also very aware of the vacuum test of the range low, where you added your last position. He would have bought after the first bull bar for two legs up, and exited at around where you did, or even a bit higher on the top of that big bull bar, why? It could be a second leg trap, and also it reaches his target (which is a vacuum test of the start of the breakout point). Did he expect the market pull back that fast and furious right after he exited? No. My trades: Is a combination of (1) learning to read the market bar by bar from Brooks, (2) your reverse and get back your average down loss method, and (3) my own 13 years of reading the market and personal experience of the what Brooks called the "pain trade": when you are in a position for the wrong direction but refuse to take a loss and just watching your loss keep growing, hoping the market will reverse, and since you are in the market already, you cannot trade the obvious correct direction until you take the loss first (I believe many new traders know this, and to make things even worse, the moment they took the loss and reverse, the market reversed again on them, LOL). Here is what I do, (1) trade the MES conservatively for the direction I predict, for swings, averaging down, size and distance depending on my reading the market. (2) when the market is giving me the PAIN that I am soooooo familiar with over the past decade, I scalp the correct direction with ES. Basically, I am doing revenges every now and then without having to exit the wrong direction trades. (3) hopefully, somewhere the market reverse, since I am scalping ES, I should no be suffering losses on that, and the MES will recoupe some of part of my losses, and by the end of the full set of trades, I should come out winning some, and sometimes that win is pretty BIG, LOL. I just started to trade this way, and still trying to improve and do better, but the results are promising. Here are the screen capture of the same bars you did your trades. MES: on bar 16, my first long, one unit of MES (I will not disclose the size of the unit, it could be one contract, could be up to 8). Ignore the red triangle, that was closing a short earlier. Bar 18, added 2nd unit MES, as you can see, I exited both with a loss later, but that is not the point, more on this later. ES: All short scalps, all one unit of ES (again, I will not disclose the size of the unit, it could be one contract, could be up to 8). Bar 18, bar 22, 23, all are one or two points scalps. As you can see, all trades from entry to exit are within one minutes, around 30 seconds. Why I can make these trades so fast and profitable? Because after 13 years staring at the screen, I know these are the moments all the bulls are hoping the support will hold and the market will stop going lower, yet the market almost always does, so that more bulls will give up, that happens fast. This way of trading, I make back my loss on the MES unit easily, since I am not doubling or trippling my wrong trades like you said in your method, I am doing it 10 times. The market only need to move a tiny bit in big momentum time to my direction to give me the profit I need. I only take the ES trades when I have about 90% certainly. As we all know, 90% certainty is some things extremely rare in trading, only happens for seconds, you better get in and out fast since they come and go fast. I will never let my ES trade suffer a more than 3 point loss, so far never happened, thanks to my 13 years of screen time. When the MES positons eventually reverse, that would be an added bonus, but my way of trading, I really do not need those bonuses, thus I sometimes exit them at a loss so that I can leave my computer and do other more important things in life. Anyway, Volpri, you are my role model in terms of giving back to the community, I respect that and am grateful that you are taking all the time sharing. I am revealing my bread and butter trades in this post, actually not afraid of others stealing it, as you said before, if someone can benefit from it, I am happy that I can help. Also, the more people doing this way correctly, the more momentum/liquidity they will add to the market when I need it. I am also working to implement this new way of trading into one of my bots, basically using one instrument as a probe to the market, and using a ten times perfect hedge to trade the opposite direction fast. How fast? The computers can get in an out within the same second, that will get even better entries and exits, and suffer less drawbacks in the split second that it has a position, and probably there is no need to chase a 2 point scalp, 2 tics would be good with size.
Thanks for your perspective. It is always good IMO to look at things in different ways. What resonates with one trader may not with another..etc What you are doing is a bit like hedging But in like mannered instruments ES and MES. That is, averaging down in MES for less risks and doing the opposite in ES which would require smaller moves to recuperate any losses in the MES averaged down position. And often they BOTH will end up profitable! I often do the same but will use MES Or Es and NQ as NQ many times leads MES and ES in the moves. I really like your attitude: not afraid of spilling the beans on how you trade if it will help others! It is not an edge you ever have to be afraid of losing because you told the world of it, describing what it was, and how you do it. No fear, because you are giving back, and the more you tell and the more who copy it, it will only help (hopefully not only them) but YOU as an added benefit! The more who implement it the better it will work! Cast your bread upon the waters and you shall find it after many days Ecclesiastes 11:1-2 Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever man soweth that shall he also reap. Galatians 6:7 Give, and it shall be given unto you; good measure, pressed down, and shaken together, and running over, shall men give into your bosom. For with the same measure that ye mete withal it shall be measured to you again. Luke 6:38 As concerns me going long on bear bars Brooks generally would not recommend such activity, especially for new traders, however there are cases in which he says to take a long position on any bar: bear...bull closes...pb’s... just get in for any reason. And he at times will tell experienced traders to do something he doesn’t recommend new traders do. My initial LONG entry at the 3443.25 green dot was made because price was at the 240 MA and the previous 2 legged move up to the top of the range was strong and it was a strong move up, not in a narrow range but rather, in a broad range. The trade had pulled back enough by the time of my initial entry (it was into the middle 1/3 of the range) thus too far down and too close to the middle of the range for me to consider shorting on a premise that it was trading from top of the range to the middle or bottom). Thus I didn’t want to implement a “fade” the edge of a TR tactic. Since it was already in the middle 1/3 I didn’t want to short (that should have been done earlier at the top 1/3 of the range...I don’t remembering what I was doing when it was at the top not even sure I was trading then) So, my rationale for going long and adding (on any bar) was basically based upon the following: a) being a broad range odds favor a reversal at the bottom should price make it there. Simply because price is, and has been in a range. 80% of BO attempts top or bottom fail. And if price actually makes it out of the range on the BO attempt, price will typically start back to the range within 5 bars. b) a previous strong two legged push up to the top of the range. That was a factor in me deciding to take a chance we might get a move up out of the middle 1/3 back up into the top 1/3 thus a scalping opportunity. Thus I would want to buy it as low as possible so I am willing to go long on that bear bar in the top half of it (thinking pop up). c) the previous bar to my entry bar while a bear bar it was a narrow range bar (compared to bar before it) and ended up being a doji (which is a 1 bar range) ....uncertainty...bulls and bears on that bar about even with bears having slight upper hand (due to the previous larger bar and the fact that the doji was a bear doji). So, 55% To 60% chance we would get a pop up into the top 1/3 again before any further move south in the broad range. Therefore, I was willing to ...take a chance make the bet....go long...and at least have a position on if that pop up towards the top or top 1/3 should happen. It didn’t happen. d) Price was in the middle of a broad range, the pop up didn’t happen, and price continued down. At this point I have to weigh the odds. Scenario #1; I could exit my initial entry and go short (which I wouldn’t be inclined to do as it is range trading and we are a goodly distance from the top of the range already) or Scenario #2; exit my long wait for another long entry signal (but I could bleed out on multiple entries and losses trying to catch a good long as weakness has now appeared). Nevertheless, either action is ok (if I am willing to assume the respective risk for either scenario and either scenario is reasonable, but just not my preference in terms of how I view risks since we are in a broad range (remember context..context..context). But a third Scenario is; build my position. I could keep adding long (preferably near the bottom of bear bars or at least in bottom one half of the bear bar i.e. adding at even cheaper prices) BETTING that the move down thru the middle and into the bottom 1/3 would LIKELY reverse up near bottom of the range and probably make it back up into the middle 1/3 or even the top 1/3 thus allowing me to exit with enough profit on at least some of my positions to make the averaged down trade worthwhile. The latter is my preference (because of the context) and it is what I chose to do. If the same PA was in the larger context of a bear trend I would have probably opted for scenario #1. But we are in a broad range and once I made that decision (on doing scenario #3) I would then subsequently PREFER adding long on bear bars and preferably as close to the bottom of bears bars that I could (as the reversal back up...should it happen...would then give me even more profit). Basically I am betting a reversal back up towards the middle, or even the top of the range, will take place somewhere near the bottom of the range and I want to be loaded up when it does happen. So, I have no qualms about adding more longs on bear bars and actually prefer to add in the lower half of bear bars. Maybe that makes sense. I like to weigh the odds on bullish/bearish...strenght/weakness..buying selling...but taking into consideration that PA within the larger context. Then I decide what tactic I will use. If it proves wrong I have a “give up” point where I cry “uncle”. In this case I employed first of all the tactic that we would see a pop up thus my initial entry. That tactic failed. So now what? I can either exit my long with a loss and go short, exit my long with a loss and look for another long entry, or build my long position by averaging down. After taking the larger context into account (i.e. we are in a broad range) I decided on the latter instead of assuming the risks for the former two tactics (i.e. Scenarios #’s 1 and 2). I was proved out correct in my choice (at least to my mind LOL) as I ended up exiting every position in my average down trade with a profit, and actually did quite well. I could have exited my initial long reversed short riding that down to the bottom then covered taking profits followed by reversing long for the ride up. That was of course the best scenario (I shall call it scenario #4) but the one problem with implementing scenario #4 is that in broad ranges Price can reverse anywhere and not even make it to the bottom of the range before doing so. At least by averaging down (and the context was good for doing so as TR) if price reversed before making it to the bottom well I would likely still make a good scalp. But with scenario 4 I got to decide when I think it ain’t gonna make it to the bottom ..then exit my short with a profit...and subsequently decide when to go long. Finally, I don’t make it a practice to average down to avoid a loss (can’t say I have never done it in my years of trading ROFLMAO) but generally there has to be a logical reason to my mind for averaging down, the context has to support doing so, and the risks assumed for not doing so outweighs (at least in my mind) doing so. In this particular averaged down trade I was just MORE WILLING to assume the risk of averaging down than the risks (in my mind) associated with implementing the other tactical scenarios. That said I prefer averaging down with it’s associated risks than taking on a risks of multiple entries and exits resulting in series of losses bleeding away monies that then have to be recovered by scalping in the SAME session before the close. I know this is a verbose and a windbag of an explanation but it is my journal and my goal was to explain how I trade and of course why I take certain actions. For better or for worse.
Hello yc47ib, I trade the same way. I only look for the very high probability trades where I think I can make money in short time, but I do not average in, I go all in and all out. And I do not worry about the risk vs reward stuff or the swinging the trade for the big money. Just take the money when the profit comes and thinking about paying bills at the end of the month. So far I have not lost in 10 days thinking this way. I also trade the CL as well, just incase the ES not showing me no money to be made, I can take some money from CL. Helps for when I take loss, I quickly recover. Also, I like for the ES to show me more. Meaning, I want follow through bar. I also do like to track and document the 1RR just for improvement analysis. It is alot of work, but it is good work.
Nothing wrong with going all in. Good job! I do it too. Especially, on BO’s. But I get many more opportunities to trade by utilizing averaging down techniques. I call it additional opportunities! Not mistakes. Not “only losers average down”. I intentionally look for averaging down opportunities to take advantage of them lest they slip thru my fingers.