The flaw in your reasoning and the reason Volpri's method works for index futures (MES and MNQ) is that price moves around (always long tails on bars?). Ths moving around means the probability of hitting a near target (closer target from averaging down) is higher than hitting a stop determined from price action market strength. Volpri is able to have high odds near targets will be hit before stops. I am now even just trying to trade ranges because they occur most of the time and trading channels in indices means a strong reversal can easily happen very quickly. I think Volpri's method may not work as well for futures that trend more such as Gold.
saying volpris method works is like saying you can swim the atlantic. you have no idea and how is the strategy working tonight. let me guess...no trades when full on trend because je can read when to get out from a chart but never when to get in properly. sounds like someone is trying to build a buz around a ridiculously discretionary sim trading platform
lets see all those executions from adding and holding today? days like today will blow you out when you should be absolutely killing it! made most of this hedging my long tech stocks that im not selling due to capital gains taxes but it was just a 13 lot hold from yesterday near the close of business tha created 60K of this no in and out and no adding to loser however ultra short term i may add to losers but exit immediately at certain points. today is a good example where volpri can site and show and say i didnt do anything or i got here because of this etc. when other times in the same pattern the same volume the same everything he is adding and getting lucky due to the bull market that would save his butt. I am not putting him down just the method of adding to losers i feel bad for anyone following this advice today
also volpri will not ever give you an exact exit point for risk beacuase he always defaults to how it is completely discretionary and based on how he reads the charts. NOW IN DEFENSE OF VOLPRI and his METHOD that he says works for him. it is very possible he is highly skilled at reading the mkts and the charts and because of his own ability that works for him but knowing that it is discretionary is exactly why it is not reproducible for others who follow him unless he did a real time room or call area where you could then move with him at the same time entering and exiting due to his skill set and read on the mkt. i think that is the only BONE i have had is that his method should not be copied by others becuase it is discretionary in nature and not even close to a true system thats all and i think the wa he talks about it as if it is a true system is very misleading to many on this site.
i asked for a max risk number months ago for the day for the trade for the position and guess what just wont ever answere so i knew right then it was not a true system but that does not mean it does not work for him.
I have won for 13 days adding the losers but today they killed me. I have lost everything I gained in 13 days and more. One thing is clear. You have to have a daily loss limit. They have advised me that my daily loss limit is the average of my winning days, what do you think? Or maybe, should I change systems? Although actually entering ES and immediately being in profit and then adding winners is next to impossible, price usually always pulls back before making the expected move.
no one would ever disagree with you about adding to winners in the es short term can be deadly but your short term may be diffrent than mine. in the old days the pit traders had the order flow advantage and computers were not running it all at lightening quick speeds so you could and did get follow thru to add to winners it seems very difficult to do even in a bull market. Sorry to hear about your losses but at least you had some gains to cushion them. yes of course the bull mkt saved you on all of your adds that is all it was.. positive price order flow sellers selling higher and buyers eating it up. the cycle you just went thru is the problem with adding to losers and also why this is a zereo sum game. i would if wantign to add to winners learn how to trade on a larger time frame even if not in the market what this means is .. if the mkt is bullish and you do a day trade and make money on a shortt erm time frame. trade as if you have positions in the mkt already and increase the size of your bet going with the trend but jsut on your initial entry understand. so even if not in the mkt if you see a good buy before earlier in the day lets say a sell off was bought and now you are seeing a nother sell off .. what i fyou were a longer term day trader say a 15 or 30 min player ? or even a 1 min player who held the trades up to this point and guess what it would be time to add right ? adding to a winner? so this is when even if not in the market i would play as if i was and i would be adding to a winner! to open my trade. those usually end up being my best trades as far as what i call the whoosh factor.. im in and whoosh no threat no heat. just the elevator up and that is because at that point sellers are not scared and jumping out they are moving sell prices higher and buyers must give chase. I would also think about doing random coin flips at your desk and just start playing with adds and subtracts on every coin flip. you will start to get a feel for random walks and how they truly can trend.. and you will see that sometimes unless you have a real edge you are just getting lucky with the long long adds . there is no strict correct answer. had you been sizing down or up based on what you were doing with profits maybe that would make a difference.. exits and sizing are the most improtant but least talked about in trading because everyone wants you to enter the mkt right they really doo we all need volume but few want you to exit because as you enter many times they exit .. aka all these stock splits was to let big and smart money out of the mkt fast without much impact but they could only hold it for so long. good luck and that is meant as a nice way telling someone in tradin gyou wish them the best. real traders always say good luck and mean just that good luck we hope you make money
the only other way i have ever seen anyone add to losers and do well is with a reverse pyramid but in the end it can end up being bad if you dont size it properly and the correct intervals if your just not a good mkt timer as far as the turns and trends then you shouldnt be sizing at all. lets look at all your trades for the last 13 days you said you were long. well what i fyou just put our your max position and held 13 days ago? you would still be up because we only just now wiped out 6 days of rallies? then you would only concern yourself with exiting not entering. that is if you put your full position out there and held.. all you are doing is managing the exits instead of adding to a winner if you do this right you can keep the exact same position size and never increase your risk while adding to losers and winners have you thougth about that? say a 5 lot is your max trade. you go long 5 and mkt ralleis 5 points you take off 2 and mkt falls 4 points and you hold the other 3 lots and then mkt looks to rally again so you add your other 2 so now you back to 5 and all you are doing is manager your max position over and over and over again but you must always keep 1 position on and never sell it because this is the 1 position that captures each and every point in the bull mkt up for the day every single one and that is the problem to just adding to losers. you are holding losers and more and more positions for the max number of points!! that is the killer. your first second third lots are downlike 20 30 50 nq points each! if you play with averaging you will come to realize holy shit it takes a lot to move that average price of yours lower and do you have unlimited money and how in the hell do you size up with this kind of strategy being down 800 on a 5 lot micro is $ 8000 in minis come on how will you ever handle being down 8k and adding I know a guy who makes 7 figures every year trading always and his max drawdown and he was freaking out about it was 30K and when he talks about it he is like.. omg i was actually down 30k! so when you look at from his kowledge his perspective it is more important to be CORRECT in the trade and MAKE less than it is to LOSE more in the trade and still make less? it would be different if adding to losers allowed you to make more but it doesnt! it allowes you to try and work your way to break even and then maybe a little bit above that but do you know who really watches that stuff? HFT and algos. they feast on people novices who add that is why so many times your average price is the mkts average price in a time slice and you are like how is this possible the mkt is resting on my average and everytime it gets close to it and im long it sells and then when it touches it ..it will rally a lil and sell and then when i exit it screams higher! and i am out now. this is what they do you are in the same boat as the majority adding to losers and being on the wrong side of the market and trying to get back to even instead of trying to hold and make more gains. you could have a set amoutn say every 10 points in es you add 1 position but it must be a constant or a percetnage and it must be very far from your entry or else your average is going to look just like everyone elses and you do not want that!! example from today nq lets say every 50 points you add 1 yes i have hindsight bias right now i know how much it fell so far but lets take a look 9.30 12225 then 12125 buy 1 then 12025 buy 1 long 2 then 11,925 b1 long 3 then 11,825 b1 long 4 then 11,725 b1 long 5 where is your averge price and how much are you down?. average price is your average price is 11,925!! mkt is at 11,791 so you are now down 11925-11791= 134 x5=670 points x20 = $ 13,400 and you need to get all the way back to 11,925 to break even again you are trying to get to break even. if you are in a trade and hoping or trying to get to break even then just exit and start over! what is the mid level of the market range today right now this is a rough estimate ok 12225-11726= 250 points so 12225- 250 = 11,975!!! Omg what is our average entry price with all of our adds? 11,925 so we are looking for a 50 % retrace to profit and that is it when we should be looking for that retrace off of the bottom not the average this is why adding to losers is folly and a road to ruin.