i dont disagree completely but it depends on what you are doing especially in options which for me if im not doing 3 to1 or 300% on long premium risked then its not worth it for me in options. those who tout 40% 100% big whoop in options. this risk reward mindset of schlossy is what actually causes massively huge blow ups because once you are in it and losses start exponentially multiplying as option premiums soar you keep selling more thinking it will come back and same with outright stocks pairs or futures. people who would rather hold paper losses on a 1 to 5 and keep adding are only 3 days from ruin if you ask me and they have zero ability to take a realized loss due to their inability to deal with their own ego or understanding that taking a small loss know creates a bigger opportunity later if they have real edge. your strategy is flawed to the max and may work in current circumstances where the extreme bull mkt has been your hedge but make no mistake it is called getting lucky. adding to losers to get out at a point or 2 above break even is the worst strategy i have ever seen because what is your actual net after all fees etc. of dollars earned per contract. its simple really. take your gains net of course amd divide by total shares or total contracts and you will see that there are much safer and easier ways to gain 1 to 3 points or more multiple times per day instead of tying yourself up in paper unrealized losses. again i oppose the way you try n shill show people they should keep adding to losers. lets take a look at some of your cherry picked trades and see what the points or dollars per contract were and these are cherry picked mind you because you dont do the same thing everyday nor do you or have you ever even once stated a dollar amount where you exit at a loss. blah blah the chart tells you to exit..right!! sure
you also add to losers and grab them losses along the way. every single point of loss at your maximum contracts is what you are doing and your exits are all discretionary based on your interpretation of a chart or the mkt at that point in time. i only say this to help you and others so they dont go blowing up their account quickly. here is your system that u stated on losses or taking losses very very loose.
if you read what you wrote its like questioning a child you watched eat the last cookie before dinner after telling gim no and listening to his answer as he tries to explain away the truth while not squirming too much. you system is not a system it is gambling and thats ok because lots of gamblers make money in streaks on terrible risk to reward probabilities. if you just did the opposite of all of your trades imagine how much money you would have made almost risk free..all those losing averaging downs would have been winning averaging ups. the beauty of averaging up is that when you are wrong on you last few averages it doesnt hit your account value or start value for the day. you are only giving back profit. here is an example. 2000 acct value. 930 am cash spy open bell. you make a trade in es after a drop. you buy 1 mkt falls 2 points. then 2 more then 2 more so you keep adding lets say you add every 2 points. buy 1 down 100 buy 1 total of 2 mkt falls 2 points so now you are down 4 points plus 2 points 6 points now or 300 dollars. or you are now down 150 dollars/3 points a contract but oh no mkt falls 2 more points!! you add another 1 so now 6 points lower you add a 3rd contract. 6x50= down 300 4x50= down 200 1 x 0= 0 even on that third add down 500 now on 3 contracts. which is 3.33 points per contract or 166 dollars at this point you are like whoa. im in it now. 3 scenarios. 1 mkt rallies back up to what extent who knows 2 mkt goes sideways for awhile 3 mkt keeps selling off. lets assume this is real life not elite trader and u have live money and bills on the line. because remember your trades are day trades right so u must exit by the end of the day. scenario 1. mkt rallies back up 6 points= 100% retrace. you are now at a fee slippage loss. but overall dodged a bullet 8 point rally is a huge turn around. and yes you would be at 2 points profit 3x2 = 6 x50= 300 dollars. after not participating in an 8 point rally!! you made a whopping 300/3 = 100 dollars per contract or 2 points per contract gained. wow! and the mkt moved 8 points and in your infinite wisdom of technically calling out where to ppace stop losses on the chart you couldnt manage to wait and enter long at a more opportunistic point? so let me get this straight. you know where to place stop losses and exit but you dont know where to enter ? so you just add. lets come back to this point again remember we had an 8 point rally not a 50% retrace but more like a 133% rally. dont even get me startedon all the buy sell forces working against you on this rally even your own fellow buying bulls would be selling back into to take profits 2. sideways. you spend hours watching this mkt trickle back and forth doing nothing wasting good capital for margin as you agonize over is it going up or down and the longer the mkt consolidates the bigger or harder it will fall or rally and again we have any news risk that can change the technicals instantly so again this is gambling and not good risk reward but for sake of example. you wasted your day 3. you are down 500 bucks on 3 contracts. at this point in time every point is a 150 dollar loss.. falls 8 points below you are now pos 1 8x50= neg 400 pos 2 6x50= neg 300 pos 3 2 x50=neg 100 you are now down 800 dollars. you grabbed every single point of loss possible and doubleb tripled up into loss. lets look at the opposite you never add to losses you only add once you have a winner of 2 points and then lets look at the scenarios. 2000 dollar account buy 1 es future mkt drops 2 points down 100 drops 2 more down 200 total 4 points drops 2 more down 600 drops 2 more or down 800 so you are now down 800 on 1 contract. where as in your example you were down 800 as well but this is where risk gets important. if mkt falls 2 more points i am down another 100 and you are down 300 more on every point. 10 points im down 1000 and you are down 3000 and this is with 3 lots thats it. i still have only used up 1 contracts for margin amd you have used up 3! thats another consideration. your hands are way more tied than mine for sure. but lets look at this same scenario but i sell and add 1 contract every 2 points of profit and again this is a "v" mkt move intraday where the mkt sells off 8 points n rallies back the full 8 and possibly 10 when volpri was up 2 points of profit after his adds sell 1 contract es mkt falls 2 points profit = 100 sell 1 more es so profit is now half point es per contract. mkt falls 2 points so now 1 contract = 4x50= 200 profit 1 contract = 2x50= 300 profit sell 1 more 1x0= 0 profit so 3 contracts 500 gain= 3.3 points per contact of profit. mkt falls 2 more points so niw we are 6 points below and we have how much in profit? 6x50= 300 4 x50= 200 2 x50= 100 800 dollars profit!! now we can decide what to do. take profits on some or all here are our choices 1. mkt rallies we lose out on Profit!! 2 mkt goes sideways. we either gain or lose slowly but as it builds could gain much more or lose out on our profit 3. mkt tanks sells and we crush it with a huge day.
lets go back to being a seller and adding to a winner. you are short 3 contracts of es and at a profit of 800 dollars. mkt has fallen a total of 8 points in your favor. 1 x8x50= 400 1x6x50= 300 1x2x50= 100 800 profit. mkt retraces 5 points and you freak out amd exit. you still have profits. you are working in the realm of relaxed profits not the realm of scared money losses and emotions. no one i know who is suvcessful with trading has ever done so by adding to losers
again we are talking about trading not investing. yes buy and hold for 20 30 years so long as company doesnt go bankrupt you should be ok
Thanks for your concern but I have never blown a real live futures account. Ever. And I have been trading since the 1990’s. Have you ever blown an account? Yes, I grab losers when it is time to grab them. Do you? Yes the dynamics of price action after my entry on chart in fact do indicate to me when to get out. I read price action bar by bar in the larger context of a market cycle. I, as a scalper (and my definition of scalping is generally 1 to 8 points in the ES and up to 12 or 15 On high volatility days). That is not the traditional definition of scalping but I am anything but traditional LOL. I have a very high win rate. Do you? You grab a snippet of a post and turn it into a declaration. You may have no real idea how I handle losses and when I will take them. Or how I recoup them. Are you an investor that despises short-term trading. Or a trader that uses a strict mechanical system? I probably view the market different than you. I see it as fluid...ever changing and not subject to any system I devise. So, I adjust my positions (adding to or taking off), stop losses, and PT as the unfolding dynamics indicate to me it is best to do so. You are free to like or not like how I trade and “save” everyone on ET from blowing up their account if you like. After all you are the Traderking! Right? And 007 to boot! ROFLMAO. In my journal I am just showing how I trade. I am not telling others to trade the way I do. They may find something useful or something that resonates with them or they may consider the entire journal to be hogwash, like you must do I suppose. Now why don’t you run along traderking007 and spill the beans, in detail, just exactly how you trade and maybe save some ET’ers?? And don’t give us the BS that you will lose your edge or spiral downhill since your system should be robust..right?
rattled your brain a little huh. im not here to show what i do exactly because as soros himself said recently the book he wrote reflexivity it stopped working as well after he wrote the book. get it so yeah why show others how to exploit my edges. i do however comment and create and share ideas along the lines of what i do and dont do or what i like and dont like. and since this is a free open and public forum which is unusual these days i guess it is ok to comment about other peoples methods. hope you make millions and based on what you are doing you should be doing 100s of contracts by now with this parabolic bullish move and you said it yourself again. in this post that the mkt that the quote volpri..the dynamics of price action tell you when to get out...then why dont these same dynamics tell you when to get into or enter the trade on the correct side? instead you enter incorrectly and try to get a better price while adding risk which is the most ridiculous style of trading no one has ever used before or ever will in a system that does not have gaussian distributions. think about that. if you had a real bell curve sure your system might work much like ltcm did for a long while but then reality sets in!! and that was in a stationary system or sort of but keep on guessing and keep on trying to get people to see the light but when you switch to full size eminis those losses will be 10 fold and everything else will be 10 fold and your account will fold but you dont ever trade those bad days do you? so what is your average gain per contract net? mine is $ 2.18 cents on full size mini futures contracts. thats it. 2.18 after all gains n losses. thats my end of the month expectancy so for me i need to do more and more contracts and also move into different mkts because at 2.18 net i dont have much wiggle room to grow much more if any and not have slippage kill my edge. take care volpri wish you the best
Since it is an open forum so do not take it personally TraderKing007. I think you are so sure about your opinion regarding Volpri, you might be very sure about things happening in the market, but anything in the Market can only have a 75% probability assuming you are using one fixed unit chart. And that 75% probability can turn to 25% in a blink of the eyes. Therefore, I think there is a 90% probabilty that you still have a long way to go in your trading journey from the way you talk. Well I could be wrong. I am throw in these lines here to those who might be like you, read a few posts in a 80 pages long thread and start to draw conclusions. In trading, if you are trading the five minutes charts, you need to look at the daily, weekly, hourly charts too. How many of the posts have you read in this thread? Traders, reach your own conclusion after you read Volpri's posts, all of it, ignore other peoples, first. Trading is not easy, you cannot trade the market just by looking at the current bar; same is learning to trade, spend a few days reading all the posts by OP first if you want to learn!